Victoria: Change of season - 23 Aug–7 Sept 2018

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JasmineStorm
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Victoria: Change of season - 23 Aug–7 Sept 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:02 pm

Upper lows are starting to take control. Initially Victoria sits under high pressure as the ridge cradles the first upper low as it moves from S.A to NSW & Qld creating a widespread rain event in places that need it. Then it gets interesting for Vic as twin upper cold core cyclones possibly connect with strong polar upper troughs. The low level detail is yet to be consistent across the models but its look like a classic volatile change of season weather pattern for the thread :)
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Last edited by JasmineStorm on Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Gordon
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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Gordon » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:27 pm

The pre-loaded Weather Channel app on my phone (which I take with a grain of salt) has suddenly announced it will snow here this Monday - it hardly ever does that.

I thought it must be a glitch until I saw the southerly fetch for Monday on the BOM 4 day charts... Might be something to it after all?

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Sean » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:48 pm

Very happy to see a weakening in those high pressure ridges.

Spring may throw us a curve ball and deliver good rains despite the poor outlook.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:49 pm

Yes, Gordon....BoM 4 day looks like the EC run from this morning. It's a brutal southerly fetch on Monday coming off that Tasman low that deepens from the NSW rain event.

The latest EC run hasn't eased off either, a ripper polar injected fetch turning West Gippsland, Otways etc...white. EC and UKmet put the low in a different spot to the rest and have it as a Tasman low... Other models are going more the East Coast low higher up. Position matters with the polar trough coming in. EC and UKM are no 1 and 2 global models so they are hard to write off.... but time will tell.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:10 am

Model differences this large for Monday are quite unusual this close in. EC has -35c @500 hPa over southern Victoria… others are 10c warmer.

BoM currently has Melbourne as 15c max for Monday, EC has 9c :)

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:49 pm

2nd decent frost in a row today. Temp now up now to 15c and feeling spring like.

Lots of looking up at the heavens for rain in NSW this weekend, initial moisture in the mid levels of the troposphere looking ok at 1pm. Water vapour has increased in the last 6 hours on the eastern side of the upper low over NSW.

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hillybilly
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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by hillybilly » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:06 pm

Nice sunny one here today, though light southerly breeze stopped it getting too”warm”. 10.9C for a max, but did feel much warmer in the sun.

Progs show quite a decent surge of old air Sunday and Monday but not a lot of rain. EC has 850Ts dipping to around -5C on Tuesday morning which is very cold but basically fine. Would not need to tweak much for be a decent low level snow event.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:34 am

Another frost here on -2c, 1st time in a month that pressure has been above 1025 hPa which shows how strong that negative SAM sequence was.

Models now aligned for Monday / Tuesday with the Tasman low further east and the polar trough clipping Tassie. End of winter system is still on track for late in the week with fairly good agreement this far out.

Starting to get stormy for inland NSW.

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hillybilly
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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by hillybilly » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:07 am

Not much going on locally. Mild sunny one for us yesterday with a max of 12.9C. Started foggy here this morning, and expecting a partly cloudy one. Late change, but we only get the top end of the front so not much rain in it. Some seriously cold air with this system, but not much weather. Potential for significant frost inland.

Couldn’t rule out the odd flurry here tomorrow with the 850Ts dropping to near -5C, but tending to think it is more likely to be fine and partly cloudy.

Later in the week throws up a much stronger system, though it peaks to our west so won’t be a great rain producer.

Btw great to see some rain for NSW and Queensland :D

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Hawker » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:03 am

"Potential for significant frost inland"

Been reasonably frosty all week, might get one a bit more severe.
Scored the double today good thick fog and a frost as well.

Tomorrows system weakened out, hopefully later in the week
there will be some rain.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Didjman » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:33 am

Top of 16.7 here yesterday after a min of 0.4. Got down to 0.8this morning.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by stevco123 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:42 pm

Ok... Tuesday day and Wednesday morning have my interest in particular.

No rain as others have mentioned but Tuesday night into Wednesday could be record breaking minimum temperatures.

Bom going for 1 degree in the city. My weather station is going for -1 for my area. But usually it underestimates by 2 to 3 degrees on the coldest of mornings.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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hillybilly
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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by hillybilly » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:10 pm

Quick 3mm here from that band. Heavy for about 2 minutes. Foggy outside now, and a chilly 7C.

Nice cold uppers and big high going to make for a couple of cold nights. We still haven’t had a proper frost up here this year, so hopefully this one delivers. Frosts this year have been largely driven by the drought over inland parts with dry air with large diurnal temperatures ranges.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Macedonian » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:39 pm

I've had frost here for the last four mornings. Quite a lot of frost here this winter.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by QldTwister » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:33 pm

EC and AXS have -1c for the metro crazy cold but def think 1c looking good suburbs more like -1 and the odd neg 2

Over 2/3 of the sate below 0 Tues ad Wed night with the mounts possibly -10c mins and widespread -2 to -4c inland very cold nights and mornings coming up huge frosts

Back to wind and showers late week before another big high first week of Sept

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Sean » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:50 pm

A lot of crops have been killed by all the frostings this year. Farmers can't catch a break atm

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:59 am

Good to see a nice drop up north. They should get a small follow up drop this weekend as well.

Mild here this morning at 3c.... Wednesday is going to freeze the pipes I'd say.
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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by hillybilly » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:33 am

Almost snow weather here this morning. 2.4C with the odd shower. Sounded like rice on the roof before while lying in bed, so pretty sure it was graupel :D A total of 3.6mm in the gauge.

Colder air is still pushing in, so wouldn’t rule out a flurry if we score a proper shower today.

EC got -3C for Wednesday morning here. That would be close to a record, but ain’t going to happen as EC struggles with the local topography here which drains all the cold always on the clear nights :( Tending to think about 1C or so. Should see solid frosts on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by Macedonian » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:22 am

Sunny, cloudy and blowing mist here this morning. 0.3C atm. Nice to have winter back for a while.

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Re: Change of season 23 Aug – 3 Sept

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:44 am

5th frost in a row here this morning. Cold southerly today but the sun is getting warm. If temps end up as predicted this week, we'll end up with a slightly cooler and wetter than average August this year.

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