VIC - Sequence of fronts (Part 1): August 3-13 2018

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hillybilly
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VIC - Sequence of fronts (Part 1): August 3-13 2018

Post by hillybilly » Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:59 am

Looks like a long lived sequence of fronts associated with a strong long wave trough in the bight. First one due on Friday, followed by another late Sunday, then continuing through the next week. Temperatures start out quite mild, but cool over time. Winds look very strong again, particularly around Friday and then around Sunday.

Rain totals should add up. GFS has widespread 25-50mm so potential for one of the better falls in recent months :D

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:34 am

Rain from 9 am Tue: Cradle Mtn 25mm, Mt Victoria 21mm, Upper Esk 18mm, Scottsdale 15mm, Wynyard 14mm, Launceston 8mm, Hobart 0.4mm

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:47 am

Yeah, I'm thinking we might squeeze 15-25mm out of the next lot of cold fronts. Still not delivering much to grain growing regions though...

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by dazrain » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:07 pm

BOM going for 5-20mm on Tuesday for Melbs and a top of 12

That’s fairly bullish for them this far out. Must be something brewing...

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by flyfisher » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:28 pm

There is a little bit of moisture on the Sat pic SW of the top end. It appears to be mainly surface but you never know and more might get dragged into this front which is going to extend right up there.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:32 pm

00z GFS is looking quite bullish for next week. It could dump 2-3 feet of snow on the Alps I reckon.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by hillybilly » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:48 am

Progs more or less holding which is good. Winds picking up today and quite mild (though plenty of wind chill). Rain increasing tomorrow. Doesn’t look that good for south central (with a solid rain shadow) and Gippsland looks like missing out again. Could well be some dust ahead of it for northern areas, with plenty of warnings out. Decent falls on the northern slopes and northeast.

Weekend puts us back in nwly flow and uppers warm with 850Ts making a run at 10C on Sunday. Winds look nasty. Looks like this then repeats every couple of days til late next week :?

Hard to pick snow. Looks like snow rain snow rain snow rain snow to me. What the final count will be is anyone’s guess. I’m thinking spots like Lake Mt will struggle but places like Mt Hotham could do quite well.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Gordon » Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:59 am

Slightly off topic, but an article in the local paper quoted BOM as saying the July just gone was Ballarat's windiest in 20 years.

Hope we get a break - trees coming down all over the place - but not confident.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Macedonian » Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:35 am

Frost and wind this morning at home. Always a winning combo :?
No frost or wind at work which is weird because its usually the other way around.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by hillybilly » Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:49 am

Slightly off topic, but an article in the local paper quoted BOM as saying the July just gone was Ballarat's windiest in 20 years.
Yep, been a really windy month. Unusual by recent standards. It explains (partly) which the beaches have been battered (our winds have been in decline which has offset rising water levels, so when winds spike you suffer a lot of erosion). The wind generation graphs shows the frequent blows really clearly - https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2018/july .

The windfarms out west are already approaching 100% so another blowy day in the making :?

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Skywalker » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:17 am

Gordon wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:59 am
Hope we get a break - trees coming down all over the place - but not confident.
I hope so too Gordon as I've had an absolute gutful of the disgusting crap. :cussing:

Perfect conditions yesterday, only a slight breeze. Today the wind is back with blue sunny skies at present.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Gordon » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:10 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:17 am
Gordon wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:59 am
Hope we get a break - trees coming down all over the place - but not confident.
I hope so too Gordon as I've had an absolute gutful of the disgusting crap. :cussing:
Yes wind is my least favourite weather feature except for extreme heat. Looks like we're out of luck - another SWW issued for us :(

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Adam38 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:43 pm

The wind has picked up here again...🙁 Had only 22mm in July and hope for an improvment
this month.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:32 pm

Quite an intense duststorm at Arno Bay in the Spencer Gulf today: https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sou ... f088b30c19

We had a frost this morning, now windy. Hopefully 10mm tomorrow to keep the gauge damp.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by snowfall » Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:40 pm

Wind has really picked up here. Will be another wild night. I’m no great fan of windy weather either, but seems we’ll be getting quite a lot of wind over the next week.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by hillybilly » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:08 pm

Wind not too bad here so far. Expecting it to pick overnight, though the front is soon to fall over.

Some decent falls out west in SA. Some areas probably too late for crops (see photo below on the Eyre Penisula :( ). Hoping for about 10mm here tomorrow.

Max just shy of 10C so felt quite warm with all the sun. Our house has good passive design and the lounge reached 24c this arvo with heating :D

Image

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Adam38 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:43 pm

Well my fence is now on a 45 degree angle... house shaking wind gusts now.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by stevco123 » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:36 am

Off topic but still interesting that they say potentially a microburst knocked down that plane in Mexico. It was only a few metres off the ground too. Scary stuff.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by Gordon » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:51 am

Somehow we seem to have escaped the worst of the wind so far; not a bad night up here. No doubt that will soon change but the fewer hours of damaging wind, the better.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-10

Post by hillybilly » Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:08 am

Horrible morning. Nwly gale with a Dp of 11C. Seriously drying these winds. Hoping for 5-10mm later today here.

Far west and northern slopes should do ok. Parts of SA have seen there best fall for the year :D

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