Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

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Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Blackie » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:30 am

Looks like a nice cold change coming up Sunday morning with showers continuing on and off through the week depending on where you are in the state. Decent snow falls also likely from Sunday through to the end of next week with accumulated totals of 20-40 cm expected. NE Vic will hopefully get some meaningful totals. Latest GFS showing 50-75mm over the next week.

B

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:26 pm

Sunday’s front looks like a cracker, though starting out very mild ahead of it (so even though there is a big temperature gradient the end result isn’t as cold as it should be). I’m a tad worried it goes westerly after the front which will keep showers more towards the coast, but still should be a decent rain producer. EC has nearly 25mm here which would be the best result since June if it comes off. Going to be a decent blow on the coast and ranges.

Progs look really dynamic in the longer term. Not sure if I believe it but EC has some warmth late next week with 850Ts spiking about 10C near Melbourne and into the teens through NSW almost down to the Murray. Be a run at early season records if that happens. Is pretty clear that spring has started, a month early which isn’t surprising given the drought and the trend. Front after front thrown up in between the bulges of milder air.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:21 am

Geez it’s mild this morning. 13C already in the city which is the (old) average maximum for July. Wonder if we will crack 20C. Gotta be a decent chance somewhere in the metro area. NW headed for a run at the mid 20s.

Front looming for tomorrow, but biggest falls will be in the northeast and South Gippsland. Rainfall in central ranges from about 5mm west of Melbourne to near 40mm around Bass Coast so big gradient. Thinking 10-20mm here. We’re 30mm short of average so a chance, but probably another month below the mark (which will make six of seven for 2018 :? ).

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Jul 28, 2018 10:51 am

Nearly 11am, it's cloudy and just 10.5c. No 20c here today.

Not a patch on the July 2013 heatwave.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:12 pm

BoM's latest Access C high resolution run (2807 00Z) showing a significantly unstable squall line followed by a south westerly attack into southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon and evening. 850 hPa winds of 120 to 130 km/h that will most likely mix to the surface. Total Totals going off the scale indicating extreme instability on the squall line that could lead to water spouts and tornadic land activity around Melbourne IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see a marine storm warning issued for central waters and 3m Port Philip bay waves on the east side of the bay. If this verifies, there will be widespread damage tomorrow evening around the peninsula's and bayside suburbs / beaches.
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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:43 pm

Slightly off topic

Something big cold wise is brewing on EC at the moment.... http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 19#p105919

When was the last official snowfall in Metro Melbourne excluding Dandenongs. Was it June 25, 1986 ?

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:19 pm

Fingers crossed for some coldie action. The low is quite mean, and has a very tight gradient on it northwest side so going to be wild. Just looks a bit too westerly for my liking. Be bumper falls through South Gippsland. Not entirely sure about here... thinking about 20mm, but should be somewhere in the 15 to 30mm range. Looks cold enough for snow on Macedon during the arvo, and may just touch down on places like Trentham. Thinking we should see some graupel here, and maybe some wet sleet.

Starting to get a few showers here after a mild max just shy of 15C. Quite unstable out there with part of the decaying low getting dragged back into the westerlies.
When was the last official snowfall in Metro Melbourne excluding Dandenongs. Was it June 25, 1986 ?
It snowed in quite a few suburbs in September 1995. I saw snow from the 10th floor in the cbd, but can’t be sure it snowed at street level. Was a cover in higher burbs like Burwood East.

Edit> year wrong above...

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:30 pm

I thought it was Aug 2005 and Sept 1995 that saw snow in Melbourne suburbs? Also Aug 2008 at Monbulk and Mt Evelyn.

Around Sthn suburbs of Bendigo snow flurries were sighted in Aug 2014. Sept 1995 was the last decent snowfall.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:52 pm

Yep, strato you are right. It was 1995 not 2005. It used to snow quite frequently in the Dandenong ranges foot hill suburbs, but hasn’t for quite some time. I saw it snow in Boronia at 100m in August 2008. It snowed in Ferntree Gully in September 2003. It snowed in Upwey to about 200m about four years ago but only flurries. I’ve got a photo of near a foot of snow just above Belgrave from around 1930, elevation about 200m. Around that time there was a fall in Ferny Creek (upper Dandenongs) of near a metre. It lasted more than a week, according to my now deceased neighbour

Showers thickening up a bit. 0.4mm so far here, with a few spot falls in the 2-4mm range.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Macedonian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:57 pm

There was snow reported in 1995, my partner worked in Collingwood and saw it there.

Hope we do get some snow flurries tomorrow. Ive got friends from the city coming up for a mid-winter lunch and it would be a treat to have a bit of snow whilst they are here. What time do you think that might happen HB?

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by stevco123 » Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:11 pm

Sorry but i don't believe snow to sea level forecasts any more. Since 2005 everything seems to go wrong at the last minute. If the Dandenongs can't get snow then what hope does sea level have? 2006 Christmas when i lived at dandenong north i saw snow after the heavy hail shower which cooled temps down to 1 degree (yes it was summer and yes it was snow).

I see model after model predicting snow to sea level yet it always goes to new Zealand or some unheard of place in sa/nsw/qld.

In saying that, it would be good to get some excitement this 'winter'.
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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Macedonian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:17 pm

Pouring rain here now.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:12 am

Rainfall since 9am Sat: Wynyard 27mm, Smithton 21mm, Sheffield 16mm, Meander 12mm,Launceston 10mm, Scottsdale 10mm, Hobart 2.4mm

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:17 am

4mm overnight in FC. Showers inbound so should add a bit more soon. Few brief heavier spells in among light showers.

Unstable and showery today with bands rotating around the parent low. Southern coastal areas will do well.

Amazing to see those good falls on Tas again.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Macedonian » Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:13 am

6.8C at 2am
3.8C at 9am

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Blackie » Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:23 am

Gosh Tas just keeps delivering rain this winter, a bit like SW WA. At Mansfield only 6mm so far despite some heavy periods through the night.

Re the winter of 1995, I remember driving up to the top of the Dandenongs and witnessing a 10 cm approx cover. Also at a similar time seeing the Black Spur and Marysville totally covered, in a whiteout heavy snowfall.

Hoping things crank up as JS suggesting later this arvo.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by Horts » Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:06 am

Can confirm 1995, was living in The Basin at the time and it was snowing at The Basin Primary School. Enough to settle on the ground for a while, all us kids went mental! Teachers all let us out to run about was good fun!

First time most of us had even seen snow!

Snowed one winter in Montrose - year escapes me but would be around 2010ish? Only extremely briefly and melted on impact.

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by stevco123 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:02 am

I think hillybilly is right about today's action. Seems to be too westerly for anything decent
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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by snowfall » Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:10 pm

A couple of millimetres here overnight. The showers have been pretty light overall. Just a couple of showers so far today but still too light to register in the gauge. More showers starting to show up on the radar. Quite a bit cooler today than yesterday. We reached 17c yesterday, which felt balmy!

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Re: Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:42 pm

Great feedback crew, interesting experiences about the 1995 event, certainly sounded like a decent event. Generally snows here every year, last year 5 times in September but very rarely settles. Last settled snow was July 2016.

Punchy showers moving into central areas. The main part of this system is the wrap around winds this evening in southern areas coming off the low that is now spinning off the west coast of Tassie. Already gusting to 115 km/h on Hogan Island and 102 km/h at the Prom.

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