VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-15 2018

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hillybilly
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VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-15 2018

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:00 am

Long lived long-wave-trough moving into our region with first a series of fronts slipping under us (but with strengthening winds, some cloud, mild temperatures and perhaps a bit of rain) but as the week goes on the fronts become stronger. Look likes a cold, wet and windy weekend into next week.

Will be substantial rain in the usual wet spots, and snow should drop into the subalpine. To finish the event it looks very frosty.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:50 pm

Nice brisk start today. Dog's outside water bowl had ice forming at 10pm last night, which is always a good measure for an under -3c minimum the next morning. Got down to -4.6 here.

Lower parts of the stratospheric polar vortex near the tropopause are starting to lose shape. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-49.254

Tropospheric polar vortex showing interaction of the polar and sub tropical jets between Africa and WA.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-49.254

The weather pattern is changing :)

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:10 pm

Somebody attempt to explain why most suburbs are 8 or 9 degrees right now but Avalon and here are 3 degrees?
Cerberus, 12km down the road is also 8.

I'm just curious
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:19 am

Somebody attempt to explain why most suburbs are 8 or 9 degrees right now but Avalon and here are 3 degrees?
Cerberus, 12km down the road is also 8.
The northerly breaking through in some spots but not others. It’s become very windy up here overnight.

Progs downgraded for the coldest part of this system, so now looking like a pretty standard winter change rather than a proper cold outbreak. Rain totals also dropping :? Still looks ok for southern and mountain areas but the northwest will struggle.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:44 am

Thanks Hillybilly! :D
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Didjman » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:16 am

5c here (has been all night) with wind to 40klms/hr

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by flyfisher » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:03 am

It got down to 2.8C at 8.30pm last night but slowly climbed up to 12C by 7.00am. It felt almost warm when out of the wind.

Btw, take a look at the rainfall totals in WA. We so need falls like that. Just goes to show what happens when you get a tropical infeed and strong southern systems. Pressure patterns/sea surface temps are not in our favour for that to happen currently and perhaps the rest of the year.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:43 pm

Quite mild up here today with a max of 10C. Gusty northerly made it unpleasant to be out :?

Looks like a repeat tomorrow then showers on Thursday. Progs not much changed tonight, so tending to hold with 15-30mm southern and mountain, and 15mm or less as you go north. Plains west of Melbourne and northwest look like they will struggle.
Btw, take a look at the rainfall totals in WA. We so need falls like that. Just goes to show what happens when you get a tropical infeed and strong southern systems. Pressure patterns/sea surface temps are not in our favour for that to happen currently and perhaps the rest of the year.
Unfortunately a strong long wave trough in the Indian Ocean is a common feature during El Niño events. These nwly winds and lack of good infeeds for us is increasingly reminding me of years like 2002, 2006 and 2009. Weaker El Niño events but nasty dry. Hope this doesn’t continue :?

Btw 28C at Nullarbor today with lots of DPs in SA into the negatives. Nasty weather for the coldest most wintery week of the year :?

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Didjman » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:45 am

What a wild night that was! Gusts to 60klms here. Temp 8C.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:51 am

What a wild night that was! Gusts to 60klms here. Temp 8C
Same in FC. Got woken up many times by the gusts. Nasty outside :?

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Didjman » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:56 am

Regular gusts 40-50klm! Stay safe out there.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:55 am

55km/h gust here at 6 30am. Mild overnight, but yesterday's 9am temp of 9.7 ensures today's minimum is below 10. Don't think it'll be the case tonight.

One of those days you just want to spend indoors today.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Macedonian » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:12 am

Bin night at Mt Macedon last night. I dont think a single one stayed upright. It looks like someone let of a bomb in an old fashioned garbage dump this morning :(

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:45 pm

EC ensemble picked up the change of weather pattern quite well from a week ago. EC control now showing 5 fronts in the next 11 days. Watching the Rossby wave movement east with interest in mid July ;)

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:55 pm

Windy and rather mild here today for mid winter with 11C. That’s about 17C at sea level. Uppers are abnormally warm, going just above 12C at 850hPa this arvo. Strong inversion aloft has meant this hasn’t mixed right down to the surface so while the airmass is easily warm enough for 20C didn’t quite get there.

Lots of low to mid 20s from the Mallee north and west, but too early in July to challenge any month records.

Getting spotty rain here atm which should thicken tomorrow. Tending to think about 5mm here from this first bit. Saturday’s front looks solid, though airmass isn’t that cold after it. 850Ts don’t get much below about -2C so snow, but not going to get much below 1000m.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:21 pm

What's in store come the weekend ?

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:45 pm

What's in store come the weekend ?
Cold wet and windy. Saturday looks like a good day to stay in doors. Not overly cold, but cold enough to feel like winter :D

Btw temps rising out there :? Lots of 16C around melbourne atm.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:47 am

Mild and windy here last night with 3mm. Today looks like continuing the pattern with rain slowly increasing. Could be some moderate falls about parts of the south, though main focus is,over Bass Strait and northern Tasmania.

Melbourne’s min last night was nearly 2C higher than its average max for this time of year, which goes to show how mild it is :? Hate to say it but feels like this winter is slipping away and we are yet to see any proper cold days here :( The flat lands have had some cold days, but they have been the foggy inversion types under big highs. Progs showing nothing to get too excited about before at least mid July in terms of low level snow. Hope to see something big soon :P

Rainfall has nudged up across most models, with 20-50mm most southern and mountain areas. Not a lot in the northwest and plains west of Melbourne. Solid snow in the alps for the weekend.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Wilko » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:13 pm

I just can’t see where the rain is gonna come from today

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Skywalker » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:29 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:47 am
s. Not a lot in the northwest and plains west of Melbourne.
:roll:

So nothing for us other than this dry cold windy crap.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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