VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018

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hillybilly
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VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Classic week of winter weather coming up with a series of fronts through the week introducing colder and colder air. By next weekend should see 850Ts well below zero, so snow levels dropping into the subalpine. Coldies, small hail, and probably the odd rumble. Looks a touch too mild for snow here in the Dandenongs, but could see some around slightly higher spots such as Trentham and Mt Macedon township.

Significant rain, particularly in the usual wet spots with totals likely to land in the 50-100mm range in the northeast, Otways, South Gippsland and outer Yarra Valley. Thinking perhaps 50mm here.

Should kick off the ski season, though snow levels will be fairly high at the start.

First of the rain inbound :D

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by snowfall » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:14 pm

Pretty wild out there now with strong winds and rain. Wasn’t expecting the radar to show quite as much rain this evening.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:06 pm

Absolutely pouring here. Lovely stuff!

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:45 am

7mm overnight. 296mm for the year now, 100 year average to the end of June is 342mm for Kyneton. Might be up to that by the end of this thread I think.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by stevco123 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:01 am

1 measly millimetre here. Was that it?
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:42 am

4.4mm here overnight, pretty much what the models suggested for the first bit. Was a wild and windy night :o

Central areas were always going to be a bit rainshadowed with the best out west and on the ranges. Handy falls west and north central.

Progs look good with CMC, GFS and EC all having 20-50mm falls south and ranges, extending onto the northern plains. Falls above 100mm locally. Only the far northwest, rainshadowed plains west of Melbourne and East Gippsland look like struggling. EC has a max of 6C here on Saturday and same on Sunday so nice and chilly.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Didjman » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:30 am

12.8mm here since midnight on the aws. Haven't checked manual gauge.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Hawker » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:35 am

Another 12mms here last night, pretty blowy for a while.
Probably the best fall for this event here, only showery from now on.
But that's fine as long as it keeps coming.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by snowfall » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:12 am

7mm overnight here and a dark, damp morning currently.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Dane » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:27 am

just 1.8mm's here overnight, doesnt look like that much more - today anyway.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Onetahuti » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:51 am

Also 1.8mm here. Shortly off to nursing home for the day, going by the radar it looks a dry cycle going there, will be a surprise if coming home this afternoon will not also be the same.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:46 am

Managed 13mm here. A nice drop and every bit is welcome.

Now a chilly 9 degC and drizzly. Feels like winter is here.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:08 am

15mm overnight here at Mt Macedon.
Looks like a nice cold week on the way
Weather.US is predicting the warmest temp for a week will be today if we reach 7C. Then its going to get chilly with maxs on Saturday and Sunday of 1C and 2C respectively. Probably a non-gardening inside weekend for me!

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Gordon » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:45 am

A modest 6.5mm here just south of the Divide. You can really see the rainfall totals climb immediately north of here... and fall away immediately to the south.

Great to see a win for the northern slopes once again; hopefully we'll make up a bit of ground once the stream gets more west and then south.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:39 pm

Dumper of a shower here with 2 mm in about 5 minutes. Little blue spot on radar. Obviously a bit of instability with the colder air moving in. Low levels are nice and moist with the trees poking into the clouds.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:38 pm

It feels like a real 'old school' winter's day here. Overcast, drizzly, 11 degC, 96% humidity, Northwesterly breeze.... And a series of one cold front after another for the next week. Bring It!

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:45 pm

Progs tonight look even better. Going for 50-100mm here now. Front becomes cutoff with a big low blocking to our south. Scenario will really clock up big totals in the usual wet spots. Getting cold, but not overly so. 850Ts dipping to about -3 to -4C so probably some sleet in the Dandenongs but a touch to mild for snow. Mount Macedon and Trentham should be just high enough.

The cold air goes a long way, though, so should see snow run along the Great Divide possibly into southeast Queensland.

Plenty of showers here atm with nearly 4mm today and just over 8mm for the thread.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:33 pm

Tasmanian Rainfall since 9 am: Sheffield 28.6 mm, Devonport 21 mm, Wynyard 16 mm, Low Head 14 mm, Hobart 1.4 mm, Launceston 0.6 mm

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:10 am

Tasmanian Rainfall since 9 am: Sheffield 28.6 mm, Devonport 21 mm, Wynyard 16 mm, Low Head 14 mm, Hobart 1.4 mm, Launceston 0.6 mm
Great to see the rain getting spread around :D May it keep coming ;)

Nice front inbound, which should reach Melbourne about 5pm. Is weakening, but still likely to pack some gusty winds and heavy showers.

Progs pretty similar this morning. CMC and GFS unchanged. EC single run is a bit drier (except for the west coast where it produces very heavy falls locally above 150mm) but the ensemble members are tending to be more similar to previous runs, so suspect it is just a wiggle.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:32 am

Latest GFS run 18z showing a significant polar vortex pulse with upper cold air breaching over the Gulf of Carpentaria. 528 thickness line launching into central Victoria with a 500 hPa polar injection from near 70 degrees south. That will be snow on the Dandenong's Saturday night if it verifies.
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