VIC - Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

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StratoBendigo
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VIC - Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:00 pm

A powerful cold front is bearing down on SW Western Australia, and a NW cloudband is in the mix as well. It looks like we'll be impacted by the aftermath of this later in the week, and perhaps with further fronts into the long weekend.

Forecast models are all a bit undecided on rain totals (everything from 3mm to 25mm for us).

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by Gordon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:47 pm

Definitely worth a thread Strato, even if the outcomes are unclear (as nearly always :)). Certainly an unusual system so far, so who knows what might happen?

I posted about it here: viewtopic.php?f=3&p=105362#p105362

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:33 am

Most of the forecast models are really talking up the potential of good rains next week.
The Canadian is a standout:
https://weather.us/model-charts/can/vic ... 1200z.html

EC not bad either: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/vi ... 1200z.html

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:07 pm

Yes SB and Gordon..... I've been watching the polar surges getting further north in WA and Indian ocean. The systems hitting NZ from the sudden stratospheric warming event from early May have been incredible. We got one in the middle of May from it but now the southern hemisphere omega block is buckling, NW cloud bands and cut off lows are a chance. Lots of downgrades and upgrades to come :)

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:58 am

Bit of a messy system but should share it around. Thursday and Friday looks mainly windy with rain in the west and north. Quite mild upper so no start to the ski season. Thinking Gippsland and much of central will be quite rainshadowed.

Stronger system for about Tuesday which takes the rest of the week to clear. Should add up nicely for most areas.

Could well be one of the better sequences for northern areas. Hopefully this one jump starts our pretty lean start to winter (the El Niño indicators are starting to rouse, so good to get as much rain as possible :? )....

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by stevco123 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:36 am

Melbourne has had the coldest start to winter in 36 years apparently.

Just heard it on the radio.

I'm assuming this is for minimum temperatures.

2.3 here this morning.
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:28 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:36 am
Melbourne has had the coldest start to winter in 36 years apparently.

Just heard it on the radio.

I'm assuming this is for minimum temperatures.

2.3 here this morning.
Seems as though it's the max and min for Melbourne. A quote from their tweet this morning ' The average temperature (max and min) for the first 6 days of June is its lowest since 1989'

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by stevco123 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:21 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:28 pm
stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:36 am
Melbourne has had the coldest start to winter in 36 years apparently.

Just heard it on the radio.

I'm assuming this is for minimum temperatures.

2.3 here this morning.
Seems as though it's the max and min for Melbourne. A quote from their tweet this morning ' The average temperature (max and min) for the first 6 days of June is its lowest since 1989'
I think they also mean the minimum average for the first 6 days is the lowest since 1982. From The Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 4zjoo.html
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:26 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:21 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:28 pm
stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:36 am
Melbourne has had the coldest start to winter in 36 years apparently.

Just heard it on the radio.

I'm assuming this is for minimum temperatures.

2.3 here this morning.
Seems as though it's the max and min for Melbourne. A quote from their tweet this morning ' The average temperature (max and min) for the first 6 days of June is its lowest since 1989'
I think they also mean the minimum average for the first 6 days is the lowest since 1982. From The Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 4zjoo.html
2 nice and cold stats from the BoM. Maybe a taste of things to come :)

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by Sean » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:35 pm

Well, it got to 19 today, so this is anything but cold...

Typical high pressure crap. Feels like a repeat of last winter, with the cold nights and mild days.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:47 pm

18 degC today. Very warm for early-June. But that'll change soon looking at the forecast.

Forecast models are firming up a 25mm+ drenching here over the coming days. Even the Mallee might do well out of this.

On another note - Broken Hill has had just 12mm of rain YTD. That's stupid dry. Almost Atacama Desert stuff.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by stevco123 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:07 am

Anybody notice this in the Notes on the Weather section, issued every day at 4:30 pm?

Notes on the Weather for Victoria

IDV10300
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Notes on the Weather
Issued at 4:30 pm EST on Wednesday 6 June 2018.

Recent Events


#BOMonSTRIKE #5yearpayfreeze #SupportUs #auspol #CPSU



Minimum temperature in Melbourne this morning of 5.6C degrees occured at
7:13AM. This is the coldest start to June since 1989 (maximum and minimum
temperatures). Coldest overnight temperatures for the first 6 days of June
since 1982. Though afternoon maximums have been closer to average.



Bureau staff have been fighting for years to hold onto the conditions we have,
but they are under attack. The Executive and the Government want to see the
Bureau staff go backwards. This 5 year pay freeze - while we defend our
allowances and conditions - is hurting us and hurting our families.

We love the work we do, we know you value it too. Please support us to get a
fair deal. http://bit.ly/bomstaff Authorised by Nadine Flood CPSU National
Secretary.




#BOMonSTRIKE #5yearpayfreeze #SupportUs #auspol #CPSU

Explanatory Notes
A high pressure system east of Tasmania will drift eastwards and become
established over the Tasman Sea during today. A cold front will move across the
Bight on Thursday before weakening and crossing Bass Strait on Friday. A high
pressure system will develop over Victoria on Saturday.




Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/notes.shtml
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by Didjman » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:39 am

John Faine interviewed the head of their union on ABC radio yesterday about the dispute.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by QldTwister » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:39 pm

Great day yestie 19c sunny warmish was out side all day so nice Prefect one of those a week during winter i could cope lol

Great to see good rain for o and N of the ranges were they need it most stupid dry up that way with only 15-30mm so far this year CRAZY.

Wet active week coming up with a few systems moving through.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by Macedonian » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:49 pm

Sean wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:35 pm
Well, it got to 19 today, so this is anything but cold...

Typical high pressure crap. Feels like a repeat of last winter, with the cold nights and mild days.
1982 was a drought year as well. No rain/cloud = cold nights, so its no surprise really. 1982 was also the year that paved the way for Ash Wednesday.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:53 pm

Max Temps in Tassie today: Friendly Beaches 18.4, St Helens 17.8, Hobart 17.1, Wynyard 16.9, Launceston 16.6

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:36 am

Winds we haven't experienced in a long while,
Annoying windows rattlings, something loose and tapping, :| 1am
Bring on day light to sort these issues.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by tonycynic » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:59 am

Few nice showers bubbling up from the bay, should make the commute fun for those of you still at home. Looking like a bit more sustained moisture next week though, well needed.

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:21 am

0.5mm in FC overnight. Not expecting a lot today, maybe 5mm if we get lucky. The main focus is north of the divide into southern NSW with good falls going to pile up along the northern slopes. Could well end up the best in a long time up there :D

Progs taking a long time to clear the sequence through with showers most days for the next ten or so. Should steadily add up (fingers crossed).

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Re: Series of cold fronts from the West: 7 - 11 June 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:23 am

Just 3mm so far but still raining.

EC and other models are talking up Monday night. Then some proper cold weather.

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