VIC - Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31 2018

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StratoBendigo
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VIC - Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat May 26, 2018 1:53 pm

A Decent cold front is expected early next week. Perhaps just 10mm here.

Interesting to see a big complex Low potentially bomb in the Tasman Sea in the aftermath.

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hillybilly
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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by hillybilly » Sat May 26, 2018 10:06 pm

EC back on for a solid system after falling away on a couple of earlier runs. Looks quite good... general 10-30mm most southern areas, typically 10mm perhaps a bit more north, less as you head into the Mallee. GFS and CMC similar, though models are a bit jumpy from run to run.

Quite cold too. 850Ts below zero most the week so should drop quite a bit of snow in the alps. They look like dipping to about -2 to -3C at their coldest, so perhaps a bit for the top of Macedon and perhaps even down to the level of about Trentham. Looks a degree or two too mild for the Dandenongs.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by hillybilly » Sun May 27, 2018 8:26 pm

Mild sunny day in FC with a bit of high cloud. Dying trough approaching atm with some decent showers back through SA, but starting to slip south.

Progs are pretty jumpy atm, so not quite sure what to expect the next few days rain wise. Tending to think this will favour the slopes, far west and coastal strip. With rainshowing quite an issue as the troughs are weak and tending to fade.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Mon May 28, 2018 8:37 am

Dark grey with Mamatus in the west,
Radar confusion..

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by flyfisher » Mon May 28, 2018 10:21 am

The Tasman sea is almost back to normal temperature - so hopefully the never-ending run of cut off lows in the Tasman which holds the high back over SE Australia and the bight will cease. Would be nice to get a run of fronts with some NW cloud bands which is looking more likely in June.

This system looks weak currently but may tide us over until something more substantial occurs.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Gordon » Mon May 28, 2018 11:31 am

Pleasantly surprised to be getting quite a string of moderate showers this morning - not a lot in total so far, but more than I was expecting this early, this far east.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon May 28, 2018 12:49 pm

No rain here yet. We'll be lucky to get 10 mm here over the coming days.

Looks like anti-cyclonic domination for the first 2 weeks of June. Reminds me of last year :(

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon May 28, 2018 2:16 pm

Just had a shower of rain now the sun is out and the temp has spiked over 20c (hopefully for the last time in months). Ridiculous for late-May, although certainly not the heatwave that late-May 2014 was when we saw 23c.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by stevco123 » Mon May 28, 2018 5:38 pm

June is usually the most boring winter month anyway (if you count winter as being from the 1st of the month). Late july to early September is what i look forward to.
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by jimmyay » Mon May 28, 2018 6:07 pm

3 consecutive days over 20 this late in May, first time for a few years.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Tassiedave » Mon May 28, 2018 6:58 pm

It reached 20 degrees in Tasmania today on May 29th!! Grove 20.9, Friendly Beaches 20.4, Hobart 19.1, Launceston 18.8

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Horts » Mon May 28, 2018 9:30 pm

Sparks and a lot of them out west! Could we be onto something here?!
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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Chritc » Mon May 28, 2018 11:27 pm

All getting shredded crossing the ranges. Northern slopes and nearby plains may do alright overnight with around 10 mm in spots. Expect more wind and a gusty shower in Melbourne if you are lucky.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue May 29, 2018 7:29 am

We copped the bullseye of the storm around 2am last night. A very welcome 16mm in the gauge :D

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Didjman » Tue May 29, 2018 8:04 am

No storms here but 9mm on the AWS since midnight.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Gordon » Tue May 29, 2018 8:21 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 7:29 am
We copped the bullseye of the storm around 2am last night. A very welcome 16mm in the gauge :D
That is good to hear Strato! 11mm here which is way more than I expected and brings our mtd to 105mm - beating our May record of 117mm is slim chance but pleasantly surprised to get this close.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by snowfall » Tue May 29, 2018 8:28 am

Woke up a few times during the night to the sound of heavy rain. Totalled 7mm here, which is also more thann I had expected. I was expecting almost none!

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Macedonian » Tue May 29, 2018 8:44 am

17mm at Mt Macedon. Much more than i thought we would receive.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by Macedonian » Tue May 29, 2018 8:47 am

And 11mm at work in Macedon.

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Re: Cold front and possible East Coast Low - May 28-31

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue May 29, 2018 9:54 am

Up to 50mm MTD here. Fairly close to average for May.

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