VIC - Major low and possible cold outbreak: May 7-14 2018

[JasmineStorm]

On the 00z models runs yesterday afternoon, here were the Hobarts estimates

GFS 40mm
EC 60mm
Access C 125mm

currently at 121mm. No surprises from me on what has transpired. That is why the big models are junk on a mesoscale for these types of events.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Those out west, should be happy with the radar at present,
power just flicked off for a few seconds here, which is odd ours is usually pretty steady..
messy down Hobart, havering been through floods, my thoughts are with those with wet feet.

[hillybilly]

Woken by the rain that has been hammering down the last hour or so. Plenty of ice in it, but no snow. Started to warm up now as this is the first wave of warmer air from the Tasman Sea. We’ve had 22mm since this time yesterday so event is nearly 45mm now. I was tending to think something in the 40-60mm range coming into this, so we are now at least a pass on the rainfall

Would love to crack the ton and put the nasty flash drought behind us. Unfortunately, don't see that happening now

Nice to see the rain spilling over into the usual drier spots, such as the Great West Melbourne Desert and North Central.

Those Tassie total are just extraordinary. Nearly tripled the old May record. Only a few heavy showers away from the all months record. East Coast Tassie is a global hot spot for ocean warming with the east Australian current becoming increasing strong, so no surprises that when the Synoptics align they are getting New South Wales like rain totals. The oceans there are now 2-3C hotter than just 50 years ago which adds 20 to 50% to the highest possible rainfall totals.

Lots of extraordinary flooding videos on The Mercury Facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/themercury.com.au

[Wilko]

Batten down the hatches
The great blow is on the way
West Coast is blowing hard
Cape Otway and Airies Inlet 100km/h
Mt William 117km/h

[Wilko]

Fingers crossed
Looks to be redeveloping
Could be a wild few hours

[stevco123]

So far locally it is overall a flop. Nearly every shower died coming across from all directions. Usually the south easterly packs a punch with rain but not today.

5mm yesterday and overnight.

Looks like a mainly fine day, unless something redevelops

[Onetahuti]

25.2mm overnight taking the event total to 35mm. Don't mind on passing any more but expect there will be some.

[hillybilly]

Finished the 24 hours on 24mm, to add to the 16mm and 5mm the two prior days.

Next round of rain lurks in Bass Strait and will be with us from late morning or early afternoon. This will come in with the nasty southerlies.

I've seen these event trigger big totals really quickly in convergence lines, so wouldn't be surprised if the arvo is ugly around parts

Tending to think another 10-20mm for FC (it's now too southerly for us to do to well).

Hobart stuck between rainbands ATM, so might fall short of it's all months record, though others sits such as Mt Wellington have raced part their record. Leslie Vale with 222m is perhaps the stand-out. Eye-balling obs must be a few spots on the middle part of Mt Wellington which have seen close to 300mm, as the rainfall in these events usually peaks near the cloud based which would be well below the summit of the Mountain.

[Gordon]

No surprises from me on what has transpired.

Fortunately we have Forecast Jasmine - I think you picked this severe weather a week or more out? 34mm here for the event so far and no sign of the rain abating. Snow, gales and heavy rain - pretty interesting for May! (And I'm remiss for not crediting HB for starting the thread.)

[JasmineStorm]

Marine traffic guidance now showing 2 cyclonic vortices and 50 knots sustained winds on the western flank approaching King Island. We now have an extratropical cyclone displaying the fujiwhara effect on its projection. Ships scrambling east and west away from the western quadrent of the cyclone.

[Gordon]

I can't think of a place I'd least like to be atm than Bass Strait in a boat!

[StratoBendigo]

Now up to 15mm for the whole event. We've done quite OK this far North of the Divide.

[JasmineStorm]

Access C just upgraded 850 hPa winds on the 18z run into central area around mid afternoon. Projecting around 130 km/h into the Macedon Ranges .... normally means wind gusts will mix to the surface. BoM needs to change language in the warning from damaging to destructive for central ranges based on that run.

[Skywalker]

Nice to see the rain spilling over into the usual drier spots, such as the Great West Melbourne Desert and North Central.

Yep, a very nice surprise for us out this way. 28.5mm for the past two days & still going. A fantastic result for the great western desert!

Would love to see you receive at least double that HB. The Dandenongs have really taken a battering with the dry conditions up there lately.

[JasmineStorm]

-50c cloud tops in bass strait below Wilson's prom heading NW. I would expect to see the Melbourne radar start to look quite lively in a couple of hours as a big squeeze zone develops.

[Didjman]

12.6mm yesterday and another 12.6 (still falling) since midnight here.

[Hunter1890]

Hobart needs 28 more mm to pass the all time record! Won't happen in 37 minutes but the scenes unfolding there are just incredible. As JS pointed out the SST anomalies are pretty high at the moment. And this was always going to make this event that little bit extra.

Absolutely dead calm here at the moment. Light drizzle falling as a heavier shower band moves through the CBD currently. This truly is the calm before the storm... Stay safe everyone.

[snowfall]

25.6mm overnight here. Got woken up quite a few times with the sound of heavy rain on the roof. Still some showers coming through, but we are now sitting between two major streams of showers/rain coming from the south. I expect this will change as the morning continues on.

[StratoBendigo]

Convergent line is just to our West and not budging. A few sun showers with the sun shining in from the East under the rainband.

Ballarat is getting a good dousing atm.

[Dane]

Rainfall has been on the lighter end of things here in the outer SE of Melbourne.
Had another 11.3mm's in the 24 hours to 9am making the system total 22mm's.
Winds still light here highest gust in the last hour is just 5 knots.