VIC - Major low and possible cold outbreak: May 7-14 2018

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hillybilly
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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14nd

Post by hillybilly » Sat May 12, 2018 5:19 am

Who here thinks this was an extreme event?
Problem is Melbourne and Victoria doesn’t really do extreme. With a bit of preparation and a well built and maintained house you can pretty much ride out everything Melbourne throws at you without having to get off your iPad :) The only extreme we do regularly on a world beating scale is fire danger (and most of us just sit grimly on those days waiting for the front to race up Port Phillip Bay on the Doppler).

Living in Ferny Creek we have one of the more extreme climates in Victoria (central ranges, alps, and coastal strip can do better) and in all my time of weather watching I reckon we only get an OMG event about once every two to five years. Of course it depends on your threshold, but for me the last one here was probably the December 2016 storm when we got about 70mm in 40 minutes. December 2017 brought some good rain, but it tumbled down pretty much without incident here.

Just picking on Melbourne, we saw the coldest day this early in May since 1970 and wettest May day since 2012 so guess that’s notable, but May just doesn’t do extreme well or often ;)

There is an issue here with how we use models. In the lead up to this low with the main models we had the UK, GFS, EC, ACCESS, CMC and German models (plus a few more if you want to keep looking). Each of these is run at least twice a day so that at least 12 looks a day, and we watched this for about five days so you’ve got 60 different views on what the outcome might be (you can think of the mid point of these as the most likely, then the scatter telling you the full range of what is possible). My gut feeling is that in the end we landed almost right in the middle of the pack. Most of us pretty happy, some a bit surprised or a bit disappointed. My rainfall was about what I expected (55mm), the maxima of 6.7C on Thursday was a bit of a surprise, and I didn’t expect so much graupel of sleet. The winds weren’t as wild as I expected, because the main low in the end stepped further east.

Progs looking showery for the week ahead. Glad to be on this side of the high with Perth looking at a week of 20s or 30s :o

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by hillybilly » Sat May 12, 2018 5:35 am

Looking at the next two days this system isn’t done with Vic yet.

Heavy bands of showers going to continue to rotate into Gippsland today and into tomorrow. In central areas a secondary area of convergence picks up this arvo and continue through tomorrow. It looks like a fairly classic drizzle situation around the bays which could add up. The stratus layer is nearly 2km thick and close to the ground, so wouldn’t at all be surprised to see topographically favoured spots pick up another 5-10mm.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Didjman » Sat May 12, 2018 9:09 am

We have broken StratoCu here with sunny breaks atm. Wind briefly gusting to 23klms and 11C(didn't get above 10 yesterday) temp. Tipped out 59mm out of manual gauge this morning.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by snowfall » Sat May 12, 2018 9:38 am

A few light showers and drizzle overnight gave an extra 0.8mm. Might be a bit more of this to come today. Otherwise, finished up on 66.6mm for the event, with about 52mm falling in the early hours of yesterday and during the day. Quite a lot more than I expected. MTD is now 74mm, which makes a nice change to the previous 3 months.

Certainly agree that Melbourne's weather is pretty moderate for the most part. It is fairly changeable, being at the point of colliding air masses, but rarely destructive, although it can get very windy. Away from Melbourne, topography, such as higher elevations, will make things a little more wild from time to time, and even across Melbourne some areas can get wilder weather more often than other areas. The other thing is that overall stats don't always reflect the experience of extreme weather in the moment. For example, I would say that yesterday's weather here had extreme moments. It's certainly not uncommon to have a big downpour in these parts, and a day, or even a few hours, of 30-50mm happens every now and then, with rainfall rates shooting up as systems run into the surrounding hills. It can also get very windy here, with wind picking up speed as it comes across the western plains or along the tablelands that make up a fair chunk of the central ranges. But yesterday combined these things. While for the most part, rainfall rates were fairly moderate, we had erratic bursts of very heavy downpours combined with roaring gusts of wind. When you are looking out the window, feeling in awe of the power of the weather and wondering what damage is being caused, I would consider that fairly extreme. If we're talking about roofs ripped off well-built houses, well then maybe not so extreme!

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Macedonian » Sat May 12, 2018 9:59 am

Fascinating subject.
In terms of extreme it all depends on what youre used to.
Sometimes the most extreme thing about Melbournes weather is the hype.
Making a big deal on a news report about 18mm of rain is extreme. Warning people to stay home is extreme.
Personally i found the last couple of months to be bordering on extreme, dry, windy, dusty and temps constantly above average and no rain.
To me the last couple of days have come as blessed relief. I had a max of 4.1C on thurs, 10 hours in a row of less than 3C from thurs arvo and nothing yet over 7C since midnight wednesday. Some would say that is extreme for May but i love it.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by occluded » Sat May 12, 2018 10:33 am

Macedonian wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 9:59 am
Personally i found the last couple of months to be bordering on extreme, dry, windy, dusty and temps constantly above average and no rain.
To me the last couple of days have come as blessed relief.
Couldn't agree more - just over a week ago it was 26 here then barely scraped 13 yesterday. The cold and wet was a significant relief.

28mm at home for this event.

Got gusty for a bit yesterday afternoon around 2.30, but most of the wind damage callouts appeared to be directly south-north in a line across the bay (Sorrento, then inner suburbs/CBD, Northcote) with fewer callouts out east/west.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat May 12, 2018 1:42 pm

@Gordon, Snowfall and Harleyb ....thanks for the prediction and post compliment ;) The GEFS ensemble projected the sudden stratospheric warming in mid April to evenuate, so hats off to the Americans for nailing the model projection to break the weather pattern. Something truly historic is now building for the southern hemisphere but I'm still not sure of the Australian impacts atm...... ground zero will be epic, stayed tuned :)

Chainsaws getting blunt around here today, quite a few trees came a cropper yesterday evening up here.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Dane » Sat May 12, 2018 4:20 pm

4.8mm's in the 24 hours to 9am making the event total 26.8mm's a bit on the low side compared with most of Melbourne
but still not bad. MTD is now 46mm's so well on the way to exceeding the average of 62mm's for the first time since January.
Another 0.8mm's from light showers this afternoon.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by snowfall » Sat May 12, 2018 4:40 pm

You’ve got me intrigued Jasmine. A showery afternoon here that has so far amounted to 2.1mm. Hasn’t got above 11c all day and feeling quite chilly with the wind.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by hillybilly » Sat May 12, 2018 7:13 pm

Foggy here with spitty showers. Had 1mm so far. Starting to add up in west central with a few spots in the 5-10mm range. Could well see 20mm by morning looking at the radar. That’s locally near half a months rainfall in that region so quite significant.

This is going to be slow to clear. In fact the big high blocked to our southwest looks like being with us for at least ten days. The swly to sthly varies, but doesn’t cease.

Meanwhile Perth has smashed its late season heat record with 32.7C. That’s about 3C hotter than ever recorded before this :? :(

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Gordon » Sat May 12, 2018 9:06 pm

Another 3mm here, 67mm for the event and exactly 80mm mtd, vs average of 60.5mm.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Wilko » Sat May 12, 2018 10:16 pm

What's with the weather at moment with the High pressure ?

That high is bigger that the Australian continent
It's massive !

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Macedonian » Sat May 12, 2018 11:30 pm

Over 60mm for the event now after todays 5mm of gale driven drizzle. 7.8C max today. The wind has been insane here today.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by hillybilly » Sun May 13, 2018 7:10 am

1.8mm in the gauge overnight. Still foggy, but dry. Decent falls in west central, spots north of Melbourne and the outer east.

EC has ten plus days of a high to our west. Winds vary between wnw and ssw with a quick sequence of troughs and fronts. Looks like it will be quite productive for rain in southern Vic. Wouldn’t be surprised is we see 30-50mm here. Probably not a lot north of the divide. It doesn’t actually get that cold as the warm air over WA and the eastern Indian Ocean keeps getting wrapped around the western side of the high into the westerlies. 850Ts tending to vary from 5C to just below zero. Perhaps a solid front in about a week?

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by snowfall » Sun May 13, 2018 8:54 am

5mm yesterday and overnight with a mixture of drizzle and light showers, as well as periods of fog. Still gloomy now but dry. Very glad too that this stationary monstrous high is not to our east, but not so good for WA.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun May 13, 2018 11:48 am

snowfall wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 4:40 pm
You’ve got me intrigued Jasmine.
Here is what I have spotted Snowfall....but hard to know the finer details on locations of the impact at this stage ;) http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 56#p105256

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Macedonian » Sun May 13, 2018 9:10 pm

Tipped 73.5mm out of my gauge this afternoon. Thats the best rainy week since late January.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by hillybilly » Mon May 14, 2018 9:06 pm

Persistent fog here today which didn’t break up to about 3pm. The temp dropped for most the day with it bouncing between 6 and 7C at noon :D

Showery front for tomorrow. Thinking a few mm’s likely here. This pattern rolls for another ten days as the big high stays anchored to our west.

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Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by snowfall » Mon May 14, 2018 9:55 pm

Good to have a bit of follow up rain this week to hopefully make May a decent month at last for rainfall. Quite a different May to last year for us, which was quite dry. We’re lucky for the moment that the high is sitting out to the west, and looks like it will be stuck there for quite a while.

Was only 5c here about an hour or so ago, but has since risen to 7c. Haven’t been outside, so I assume either some cloud has moved in or the airflow has shifted around to the NW, or both.

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