VICTORIA - Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9 2018

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StratoBendigo
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VICTORIA - Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:40 am

The endless high-pressure ridge might finally get broken down by the polar vortex in the next week. Discuss...

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Didjman » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:16 pm

I Noticed that on earth.nullschool.net; what looked like a polar pulse between SA and OZ pushing a weak high north(with the more traditional westerlies).

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by flyfisher » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:33 am

Hopefully, we will get something in this upcoming system. But it is the time of the "Supermassive high pressure" - Autumn is my least favorite season of the year. Just going to work in the smog this morning from controlled burns is enough to put me off.

Remember when we used to get strong NW cloud bands that wrapped into deep low's centered near Tasmania - those were the days!

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:05 pm

It looks like the Hadley cell slowly pushing north :) Certainly more frontal actions appearing from the deep but moisture is questionable at the moment. EC just gave an upgrade across Victoria and along the dividing range for this thread and Icon also jumping on board more. Others not so keen on moisture for the moment.

A sudden stratospheric warming event is now underway over Antarctica. Currently between 13 to 20c above normal between the upper (10 hPa) and lower (50 hPa) layers. Looks like it will move down into the troposphere in the next 2 weeks and displace the polar jet. Odds of an early epic polar sling shot into the 2nd half of May for SE OZ are firming IMO :)

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:25 pm

EC looks nice for Thursday evening for us - 16mm would be a start. GFS is not that interested.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly » Tue May 01, 2018 6:45 am

Progs look ok, but not great. Good falls along the southwest coast and northeast ranges (plus South Gippsland) but less as you head towards the usual drier spots. Plains west of Melbourne look like struggling and the northwest may miss out :( Just hoping hoping this is the start of the return to more normal, weather in the coming months.

Looks like somewhere between 20 and 40mm here.

So need it. It’s just crazy dry here atm. It looks like summer here with gardens a mix of green and brown, something I’ve never seen before. Reports from inland parts look horribly dry with lots of farms showing near record low soil moisture.

Btw for those who have missed it an awesome new model website up and running at https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... ssure.html . This has all the main models, and ensembles as well. Quite amazing site.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue May 01, 2018 7:03 am

hillybilly wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 6:45 am
Btw for those who have missed it an awesome new model website up and running at https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... ssure.html . This has all the main models, and ensembles as well. Quite amazing site.
Yes HB, a great site indeed. I've been using for the UK met model 144 hours (currently 2nd most accurate in Southern Hemisphere to EC) which is virtually impossible to get anywhere but this site has it. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/vic ... 1200z.html

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Wilko » Tue May 01, 2018 10:31 am

Awesome thanks HB

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Tassiedave » Tue May 01, 2018 6:10 pm

Today's temps in Tassie: Campania 25.3 degrees, Fingal 24.7, Hobart 23.1, Friendly Beaches 22.0, Scottsdale 20.0, Launceston 19.9

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by stevco123 » Wed May 02, 2018 6:34 am

Quite a differencein temperature from north to south this morning.15 and 16 in the northern part of the metro area but below 10 down here, including Cerberus, Geelong and Sheoaks
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Rivergirl » Wed May 02, 2018 1:13 pm

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Central, South West, North Central, West and South Gippsland and parts of East Gippsland, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:54 am Wednesday, 2 May 2018.
Northerly winds will become strong and gusty over parts of the State ahead of a cold front which will cross the State late Thursday and early Friday morning.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are expected to develop about elevated areas of the State during Thursday - developing over the far west and also Alpine areas from late morning and across the remainder of the area during the afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts over Alpine areas are likely to peak between 100-110km/h Thursday night.
Over lower lying areas within the warning area, wind gusts around 90 km/h are possible during Thursday afternoon and evening.
Whilst winds will largely ease over western Victoria during Thursday evening, isolated thunderstorms may still produce some strong wind squalls.
Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Traralgon.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Skywalker » Wed May 02, 2018 2:37 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 6:45 am
Plains west of Melbourne look like struggling and the northwest may miss out
:roll: :cussing:

So bloody over this pathetic boring weather. Can't believe I'm still watering the gardens at this time of the year.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly » Wed May 02, 2018 3:19 pm

Progs not much changed. 20-40mm along the coast, and the ranges. Less as you get inland/rainshadowed and little in the northwest.

Expecting (hoping) for 25mm in FC.

Unfortunately next week brings back the big highs.

Meanwhile vile weather over southeast OZ ATM with shocking smoke pollution from all the fires. Here's a photo I took near the Great Divide this morning with smoke sitting heavily in the valleys.

Image

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Skywalker » Wed May 02, 2018 3:56 pm

Nice Pic HB. :)

That smoke pollution is absolutely disgusting, especially when your sucking it in out there on the bike.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by neil275 » Wed May 02, 2018 5:10 pm

Big upgrade in tomorrow's BOM forecast for Northern Country. 5 to 15 mm and 95% chance of rain! Hasn't rained here since March. Hope it comes off. :D

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed May 02, 2018 7:15 pm

neil275 wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 5:10 pm
Big upgrade in tomorrow's BOM forecast for Northern Country. 5 to 15 mm and 95% chance of rain! Hasn't rained here since March. Hope it comes off. :D
Yep. Nice upgrade on EC. It also has a blast of cold air from the South on 10th May too. The forecast models seem to be really struggling beyond a few days out though....

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by QldTwister » Wed May 02, 2018 8:14 pm

Yeah nice front but yes sadly little rain for the NW and for rain shadow places NE will do well.

Then ANOTHER Fine mild 7-10 days after this front

Pattern should change mid to late June and Def come July-Oct

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly » Thu May 03, 2018 6:19 am

Radar looks good, but the system is peaking and soon to start falling over. Just hoping this one delivers a decent drink for all. EC update is a lot leaner (just 7mm here :o :( ), but other models seem to be pretty similar. Plains and northwest will struggle but other area will get at least some.

Pretty frustrating that we are getting one chance a month atm for rain.

Next week brings another monster high :x

Talking to a good friend, he reckons this is running a lot like 1997 atm. That year it was summer like dry in parts until nearly August. Also the start of a a very strong El Niño. Not expecting that to repeat, but interesting nonetheless.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu May 03, 2018 7:05 am

Yes, I see some similarity with 1997 too. Notable for a strong ElNino combined with moderate -ve IOD which meant that some of Vic had ok rain that winter and early spring. A couple of cracking cold outbreaks too. A very dry finish to 1997 though.

Shame about the downgrade this morning - seems to be a pattern....

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Didjman » Thu May 03, 2018 8:42 am

Wind to 50klm here already

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