Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

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hillybilly
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Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by hillybilly » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Decent upper trough with weak surface trough showing up for Wednesday and Thursday. Models showing up to 20mm locally, but been really jumpy so not absolutely confident. Hopefully this can add to our rather dismal April totals :?

Before it comes through a warm couple of days for late April.

Hopefully I haven’t killed it :?

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hillybilly
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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by hillybilly » Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:53 pm

Looks like Hopetoun and Walpeup both broke the Victorian late season record. Must be shockingly dry up there now with a record or near record dry and warm start to the year looming :o

Progs winding back as expected. More like 2-5mm now, with perhaps the odd fall near 10mm out east.

To be honest can’t see any proper rain the next ten day. Maybe something late next week :roll: I can’t recall a period this warm and dry before out here...

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by flyfisher » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:57 pm

I remember during the millennium drought there being a very warm day in May that was declared a total fire ban. Perhaps 30C, my memory fails me, but I do remember the fire conditions. After that is was severe frost after severe frost to desiccate the land. Got to wonder why the jet always like to split over SE Australia like a rock in the river - perhaps a warm Tasman sea?

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by QldTwister » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:43 pm

20c in late April at midnight just crazy weather

Early may looking dry ad possibly warm to low 20s


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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by stevco123 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:34 am

flyfisher wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:57 pm
I remember during the millennium drought there being a very warm day in May that was declared a total fire ban. Perhaps 30C, my memory fails me, but I do remember the fire conditions. After that is was severe frost after severe frost to desiccate the land. Got to wonder why the jet always like to split over SE Australia like a rock in the river - perhaps a warm Tasman sea?
I am pretty sure that was 2003. That winter we had 8 nights in a row at or below zero where I used to live in North Dandenong.
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:13 am

stevco123 wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:34 am
flyfisher wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:57 pm
I remember during the millennium drought there being a very warm day in May that was declared a total fire ban. Perhaps 30C, my memory fails me, but I do remember the fire conditions. After that is was severe frost after severe frost to desiccate the land. Got to wonder why the jet always like to split over SE Australia like a rock in the river - perhaps a warm Tasman sea?
I am pretty sure that was 2003. That winter we had 8 nights in a row at or below zero where I used to live in North Dandenong.
Would've been May 2002. Bendigo had almost 12 days in a row over 20c at the beginning of May, with a peak of 26.3c on the 7th (Melb got to 27c). In contrast 26th May to 5th June 2002 was extremely frosty. How's this for a sequence: 0.2 -1.4 -0.2 -1.3 -2.4 -4.6 -2.4 -4.1 -1.7 -1.6 -0.3c

1990 was similar too. Rather dry and warm up to 12th May.

GFS is hinting that there might be some cold front action after 3rd May.

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:05 pm

EC nailed this set up on April 11th. As soon as you see the Hadley cell still below 40S, it's going to be abnormal for quite a while. Going for 7 days in a row over 20c here today. Had 11 days over 25c so far in April and an average max temp of 23.7 so far (average around 17c). That will come down a degree or 2 in the next 6 days but it's off the scale.

GEFS ensemble is showing a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event from April 27th for a week over Antarctica, around 20c anomaly at 10 hPa on Sunday. It should mix into the troposphere into the first week in May with upper zonal winds. If this happens and it looks like its going to, the polar vortex will weaken and release northward, kicking off a sequence of extreme polar pulses. SSW events are significant, just ask Europe and North America from Feb and March. Along with likely negative IOD, get ready for an extreme period from late May into Spring IMO.
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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by Horts » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:50 pm

Gardens at home about to get a well earned drink :D

Feels like summer out there, not mid Autumn.
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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:04 pm

Today's temps in Tas: Flinders Island Airport 25.1, Fingal 24, Hobart Airport 23.9, Strahan 23.9, Hobart 22.1, Launceston 21.0

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by Gordon » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:17 pm

Well that was underwhelming :( Not that I had high hopes...

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by hillybilly » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:01 pm

0.5mm here with one rumble. Biggest fall in nearly two weeks :(

About the same tomorrow, and then a weak front clipping us Thursday.

Today felt like a mid January day. Crazy warm overnight, then a warm cloudy day. Not normal April weather :? Even a few small fires which required the CFA which is just insane here for what should be a soggy month.

Maybe, possibly, who knows a proper front in ten days. That will mark three weeks between events (again :o ).

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:42 am

Barely enough to wet the ground yesterday. Cloudy now but not hopeful of any more. The mini-drought continues...

The lingering heat in NW Western Australia has been interesting. Roebourne made it to 41.7c yesterday.

As for next week - temps on the rise to mid-20s again (will it ever end?). Looks like a front around 4th May.

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by hillybilly » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:07 am

As for next week - temps on the rise to mid-20s again (will it ever end?). Looks like a front around 4th May.
Progs look dismal this morning. EC has basically zero in the offering for another 2 weeks. CMC and GFS somewhat better, but downgraded a lot in just 12 hours.

I'll be watering the garden next week if this keeps going. Our average rainfall for Feb->April is about 300mm and we are sat on less than 100mm. Going to be touch and go if this is the driest such period on record here :(

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:27 am

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:07 am
As for next week - temps on the rise to mid-20s again (will it ever end?). Looks like a front around 4th May.
Progs look dismal this morning. EC has basically zero in the offering for another 2 weeks. CMC and GFS somewhat better, but downgraded a lot in just 12 hours.

I'll be watering the garden next week if this keeps going. Our average rainfall for Feb->April is about 300mm and we are sat on less than 100mm. Going to be touch and go if this is the driest such period on record here :(
We're on 45mm YTD. Driest January-April since 2004 (which was 26mm). Looks like it'll be our 11th driest 'first third' of a year since 1862. Interesting to note that several of those years had a reasonably wet winter-spring. And that could happen if a -ve IOD occurs.

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by neil275 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:47 am

Still zero rain here for the month. Total for the year so far only 36 mm (YTD average 130 mm). Average max temp this month sitting on 28.1C. Hottest April on record for Cobram is 2005 with an average max of 26.1. So it looks certain this record will be smashed. BOM predicting storms today, but not hopeful.

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by snowfall » Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:56 pm

A little rain here yesterday but not enough to register in the gauge. We’re basically in the same pattern since the start of February, which happened very suddenly. And as Jasmine has pointed out, the Hadley cell is still sitting way south for the time of year.

The annoying thing is this is occurring despite the absence of an El Niño or positive IOD. The BOM is continuing to forecast decent odds for average rainfall, but seems that the usual indicators are not bearing fruit. So I’m not sure what it will really take for a pattern shift, but we may be well into May or June before something happens based on current modelling.

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by Dane » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:41 am

Had 59.2mm's here since the start of February - average for the 3 months Feb to April is 169.3mm's.
Driest I have recorded in my 17 years of records for that time period is 83mm's in 2007 so it appears
certain that I will break that.
April temperatures are above average but not in record territory.
Got a gut feeling that things will begin to turn around in the next few weeks.

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by hillybilly » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:15 am

Progs still holding out a decent front in a week. Meanwhile a weak front sneaking along the cost today. If we score 0.6mm it will come in as our wettest day in nearly half a month :o (EC has 0.8mm).

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Re: Trough with possible showers and storms:April 25-26

Post by flyfisher » Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:37 pm

Well it looks like the warm Tasman sea is disrupting our weather....

http://www.news.com.au/technology/envir ... 25838b950f

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