Progs look rock solid. WATL which is the average of the models shows 25 to 50mm for southern and mountain areas east of Melbourne and 15-25mm for areas west. North more typically 10-20mm. Provided there is followup it looks like a solid autumn break for many. Saturday looks nice and thundery... can’t wait
Current batch of progs peak near central Vic which is good as we’ve been in a big hole for two months
It looks terrible further up the road where Mt Dandenong tourist road splits off - the 1000 steps area.
This happens every few years (with the nasty summers which have become a norm). Most those trees should come back. It’s an extreme stress response on that hot west facing slope. Last time I saw it was about four years ago (2014). Also happened in early 2009 and 2003.
What is a bigger concern is the general loss of the wet understory and big trees. This has been going on since 1997. There are many big dead tree ferns around the range, and there will be more after this summer. They take decades or centuries to grow. Same for all the Mountain Ash at lower elevations which have steadily disappeared. You can’t warm by a degree and a bit and throw in multiple poor rainfall years without an impact on the trees.