VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

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StratoBendigo
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VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:53 am

EC has been rather bullish about the coming weekend when it comes to rainfall. After a benign week, it's forecasting totals from Friday to Monday of almost 70mm for here.

GFS is absolutely not interested.

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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by Gordon » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:26 am

Yes I've been watching EC stick to this for a few days now, which would usually be enough to get me excited.

But the models have been so bad on rain lately, it's hard to be confident...

It is mildly interesting to see that the latest Climate Outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... look.shtml has, after a horrible forecast at the start of March, flipped back to average rain for Vic or slightly above. But again, these Outlooks perform so poorly, I'm not about to bet money on it!

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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:02 am

Gordon wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:26 am
Yes I've been watching EC stick to this for a few days now, which would usually be enough to get me excited.

But the models have been so bad on rain lately, it's hard to be confident...

It is mildly interesting to see that the latest Climate Outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... look.shtml has, after a horrible forecast at the start of March, flipped back to average rain for Vic or slightly above. But again, these Outlooks perform so poorly, I'm not about to bet money on it!
True. They got Feb 2018 completely wrong in January's seasonal forecast. EC remains the outlier. Access-G focuses the rain just East of Melb and has not much at all here.

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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:18 am

Isn't it nice to be dreaming about a rain event for once :)

EC and GFS have just synced at 500 hPa with the 12Z and 18Z runs. Massive upper polar injection into SE OZ next Monday. EC has it -25c at 500 hPa near the S.A, Vic border. The upper low is powerful enough to balloon into the super ridge which has been bullet proof for 2 months. IMO it now all comes down to the monsoon lows (possible cyclones) and which way they track and how fast they track, to steer an inland trough down south. If this upper polar low gets a feed from the tropics, it will go nuclear. At the moment, it's not quite lining up...... but we have hope in the uppers :)
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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:29 am

It's still lacking the moisture for this set up to go bang. Latest showing an Autumn coolish outbreak but its not getting a feed from the tropics. Showers but not proper rain. EX TC Marcus loses his puff and the Gulf TC not coming through the middle as its modelled at the moment.

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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by Lucia » Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:08 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:29 am
It's still lacking the moisture for this set up to go bang. Latest showing an Autumn coolish outbreak but its not getting a feed from the tropics. Showers but not proper rain. EX TC Marcus loses his puff and the Gulf TC not coming through the middle as its modelled at the moment.
Thanks for the update Jasmine, disappointment plus, let's hope mother nature has a change of heart :(

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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by stevco123 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:21 am

Bummer, latest model showing only 9mm for here, down from about 40mm earlier. I know it's still early days, but it's a little hard to have hope after the dry that's currently happening.
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StratoBendigo
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Re: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:19 pm

I need to give this a thread a new title. As in "The Dustbowl Continues..." or something similar.

At this rate March 2018 could end up drier than February 2018. Dry starts to the year aren't uncommon here. i.e. 2009, 2004, 1997, 1991...

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by stevco123 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:43 pm

Slightly off topic but who was the guy the other day who predicted a cyclone for the top end?

Just curious because he is also predicting a record cold winter
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:27 pm

Latest batch of progs look good, though they are jumpy and can’t settle on where the biggest falls will occur. GFS just out has big falls for most southern and mountain areas Saturday, when the run before it had not much at all. I’m thinking most southern areas should see 10-50mm. Northeast should also do well. Not so confident for the northwest. Some of the scenarios could be very wet for east central, the Otways and South Gippsland.

Slightly off topic but who was the guy the other day who predicted a cyclone for the top end?
Was in the models for a week or two out.. There’s no chance the coming winter will be record cold (or indeed cold compared to the average). I love cold snowy winter weather, but people thinking that’s going to happen are way too optimistic :( The last cold winter for OZ was way back in 1989.

Btw watch out for some eye watering rainfall totals on the NSW coast next day or two. Progs being suggesting falls well into the hundreds of mms possible.

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Lucia » Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:04 am

stevco123 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:43 pm
Slightly off topic but who was the guy the other day who predicted a cyclone for the top end?

Just curious because he is also predicting a record cold winter
The weather map every Australian should see - OverSixty



https://www.oversixty.com.au/travel/dom ... hould-see/



Mar 7, 2018 - Australians are being warned to prepare for a winter freeze as creator of Brisbane Weather and East Coast Weather Facebook pages, David Taylor, predicts it to be the coldest winter on record. If David Taylor, who has correctly predicted major weather events in the past, is right again, then Australia could ...

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:01 am

Lucia wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:04 am
stevco123 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:43 pm
Slightly off topic but who was the guy the other day who predicted a cyclone for the top end?

Just curious because he is also predicting a record cold winter
The weather map every Australian should see - OverSixty



https://www.oversixty.com.au/travel/dom ... hould-see/



Mar 7, 2018 - Australians are being warned to prepare for a winter freeze as creator of Brisbane Weather and East Coast Weather Facebook pages, David Taylor, predicts it to be the coldest winter on record. If David Taylor, who has correctly predicted major weather events in the past, is right again, then Australia could ...
I predict that this guy is very good at self-promotion. Anyway, the wilder the prediction, the bigger the embarrassment when it's proved to be bogus.

EC reckons 8mm for us in the next week. GFS is thinking similar.

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:49 pm

Please help. I have heard that today's pressure recorded in Ouse Tasmania of 1041.3 hPa is a record for Australia in March? Hobart reached 1041 hPa. Could someone verify this please?

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:01 pm

Please help. I have heard that today's pressure recorded in Ouse Tasmania of 1041.3 hPa is a record for Australia in March? Hobart reached 1041 hPa. Could someone verify this please?
Appears to be. There are caveats. Past data wasn’t recorded as frequently and isn’t all digitised.

Progs still keen on the weekend. EC and GFS in particular are throwing up a stormy Saturday with significant rain, followed by a cold wet and windy start to the next week. CMC and access not so keen, but I tend to find they struggle with convection.

Meanwhile TC Marcus is now Cat 5 (and headed south toward Perth...though it will weaken and too far off to pick an impact) another significant TC shaping up in the north, and a deluge on the NSW coast. Is turning into a most extreme March :?

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Gordon » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:15 pm

After dropping to less than 10mm this morning, EC and GFS are back to an autumn break for us (25mm plus). Hard to know what to believe!

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:27 am

Progs this morning look to be all on board. General 20-40mm across most southern area east of Melbourne. Widespread 20mm or thereabouts falls for rest of Vic. Heavy falls near the Otways and northeast ranges.

Tends to come in three (or perhaps four) waves. Unstable trough Saturday which sweeps a band of thunder rain west to east. Locally heavy falls showing up. Rainband developing on Sunday ahead of the approaching low. This tends to be more impacting the east. Finally a cold, windy and unstable west then southwest stream on the backside of the low. Finally, TC Marcus rides the westerlies across the bight and looks like impacting around Wednesday and a weakening low or trough. That one might need another thread. Marcus is going to get close to Perth as a sheared TC (these can be nasty systems for SW WA).

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:03 am

Probably less than 10mm here. Barely enough to settle the dust...

TC Marcus looks somewhat like TC Alby that smashed SW WA in April 1978. Although fortunately Marcus looks like it'll miss WA.

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:11 pm

Access R 18z has 0.2mm for here up until Sunday morning and Access G has around 1mm until Tuesday morning. Another moisture starved southern clipper if they are right. Hoping the current EC and GFS scenario's come through which show more widespread falls but not holding my breathe at the moment with no moisture from the north but still hoping a trough sharpens up and surprises. Melbourne should get the gardens watered. NZ will get the real spoils again from the polar low when it hits a tropical moisture feed next week over the Tasman.

TC Marcus now around 910 to 916 hPa with 325 km/h gusts, although one of the intensity methods used by NOAA from microwave imagery has him at 893 hPa and 172 knots sustained winds. He's officially a U.S cat 5 which ever way you look at him and an absolutely tropical monster.

Quite a few sparks in the Wimmera and Mallee ATM moment east of that trough, heading southward

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:58 pm

Now we are talking..... Access R 00Z getting properly on board for an outbreak of multicell clusters and possible supercells on Saturday night. GFS 18Z having a supercell attack on Melbourne's North.

Totals totals now above 50 for EC, GFS and Acccess R in central areas. Wide spread high teens to 20c dew points. Winds at 700 hPa are over 40 knots to sustain an outbreak of angry cells, a feed of moisture coming into the surface trough. It might be one of those sit back and enjoy the light show nights :)

Now please don't downgrade :?
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GFS 2103 18Z for 4pm 24 March 2018.jpg
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Access R 2203 00Z for 8pm 24 March 2018.jpg
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Wilko » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:26 pm

Awesome
Pleeease deliver

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