VICTORIA: Cold fronts - 18 to 20 March 2018

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Gordon
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VICTORIA: Cold fronts - 18 to 20 March 2018

Post by Gordon » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:11 pm

I think we can safely lock in a strong cold front for early Sunday and another one Monday/Tuesday, plus a bit of rain that's actually visible to the naked eye... :)

The forecast changes with the arrival of Sunday's cold front brought forward, are dramatic. A few days ago, weather channel had us down for a Sunday max of 32C; now that max is forecast to be just 16C!

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hillybilly
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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by hillybilly » Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:53 pm

Just like that the models have killed most the rain. EC and GFS down to about 5mm here now. Couple of runs back they were toying with 20mm or there abouts :roll: almost looked like an autumn break.

It’s going to get cold and windy, but fairdikum when is it going to rain :o

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by snowfall » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:47 pm

It really is getting dire out there. I’m not expecting any more than a couple of millimetres on Sunday, and I will be happy if we even get that! Of course, I hope I’m wrong and some decent falls do emerge. It’s so difficult at the moment to see where a good fall of rain will come from, with this ridging pattern being so persistent. It’s still feeling like Autumn has arrived with cooler days and nights, but just no rain. Leaves on some trees are also turning colour much earlier than normal, probably owing to drought stress.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by Didjman » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:37 pm

Word is that the TFB will now be for Sat for western half of Vic. (Mallee, Wimmera, SW, Northern Country, Nth Ctrl and Central)

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by jimmyay » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:49 pm

Yes it’s dry as dust out there. Very crispy. Hoping for rain soon.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by flyfisher » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:05 am

Is tomorrow one of those "warm" front type conditions where it starts out cool and cloudy and then the cloud clears and the winds mix down and it heats up. All the while watching some virga.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by stevco123 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:47 pm

Some mammatus to my West.
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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hillybilly
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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by hillybilly » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:11 pm

Is tomorrow one of those "warm" front type conditions where it starts out cool and cloudy and then the cloud clears and the winds mix down and it heats up. All the while watching some virga.
Yep, that’s whats happening atm. Thankfully uppers don’t spike too high and we are past the equinox. Saves us a nasty hot day in southern areas, but the north will get hot :?

I’ve got no confidence with the system now. West will do ok, but beyond that the system collapses. It might make it to central areas, or die on our door step :( So over this nonsense of almost getting rain, and then it fizzing. Lost track of the number of model runs which have promised something and we’ve ended with zilch.

Been out to Sale today and geez the landscape looks baked. Was lots and lots of smoke from the big bushfire near Mt Buller (about 6000 hectares) and the smaller fire in South Gippsland :(

Oh... EC thinks we will get a heap of rain next weekend (do we lock that in as another fail :? ).

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by HarleyB » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:32 pm

We have rain here!!!! :o wind is dead still, doesn't feel particularly humid but probably enough to be closing in on 0.2mm.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by hillybilly » Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:42 am

Warm to hot one today. Worst of the wind overnight. Stray shower later with a bit of elevated instability. Currently 17C here, DP of 8C and light wind. A trace in the gauge overnight.

Decent falls out west tomorrow, but fading as it moves into central areas and going missing for the east. All comes down to how quick the system peaks and fades. CMC peaks it a couple of hundred kms later and puts decent falls into central. GFS kills it dead near Geelong and areas east get about zilch. So could get anywhere between 0 and 15mm here :roll:

Not much in the north east of about Ballarat across the models

Weak follow up front for Monday late.

Maybe, possibly, who knows ? something brewing in the week ahead. Upper trough to our north then a low coming up from the southwest. EC and CMC going for BIG falls from about six days out.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:11 am

Rain in Tasmania last 24 hrs: Gray 85mm, Fisher River 53 mm, St Helens 35mm, Friendly Beaches 21.2mm,Western Creek 21mm, Sheffield 20mm, Mt Victoria 13 mm, Launceston 0.6 mm, Hobart 0 mm

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hillybilly
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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by hillybilly » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:54 am

Rain in Tasmania last 24 hrs: Gray 85mm, Fisher River 53 mm, St Helens 35mm, Friendly Beaches 21.2mm,Western Creek 21mm, Sheffield 20mm, Mt Victoria 13 mm, Launceston 0.6 mm, Hobart 0 mm
Been quite unbelievable how well Tas has done the last month and a bit while Vic has had zilch. Unbelievable. The same happens next 48 hours with a big event coming, but mostly missing Vic.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by hillybilly » Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:21 pm

Gfs and CMC updates look a bit better. Not big totals but could well be the best fall for most western and central areas in nearly two months. They have between 4 and 10mm here... Upto 15mm about the western border and Otways, and maybe a few mms in the city.

At this point anything would be welcome, but please more than the 0.5 to 1mm which has been about as good as it gets since Australia Day weekend. Not much for the north where the dry rolls on.

Quite a lot of mid levels convection going up over western areas ATM, but dry low levels means most is virga ATM.

Max of 27C here today, so a nice day in the end with winds not that strong. Looks less pleasant on the western plains where the higher winds are mixing down.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by Wilko » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:41 pm

Here comes the wind
It's going to be a very active night tonight
There will be a lot of trees down with the stress of the heat and the dry weather
Quite a few trees down in the western part of the state already

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by jimmyay » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:14 pm

Could be a record breaking night...bom have tomorrow’s min 21, max 26...the max is likely to be in the early hours of the morning, the min later in the day 😂. Seriously a bit scary though, reckon it could stay near 30 all night and so blowy, the ground is already bone dry and just desiccating now.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by Lucia » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:25 pm

Wilko wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:41 pm
Here comes the wind
It's going to be a very active night tonight
There will be a lot of trees down with the stress of the heat and the dry weather
Quite a few trees down in the western part of the state already
Yes the strong wind is the concern, with these tinderbox conditions anything can happen, will be glad when the evening has passed. Had a look at the Earth Wind Map :cry:

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:04 pm

Big numbers coming out of the SW tonight, Hamilton 109 km/h, Warrnambool 104, Mortlake 104.....and the big westerly hasnt hit yet.

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by hillybilly » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:43 pm

After a warm but pleasant day up here winds have turned feral. So glad that sun has gone down, otherwise these would be shocking fire weather conditions. Temps on 23C here atm.

Unfortunately a heap of fires appeared out west, which may well be from lightning? Some rain inbound for them can’t come soon enough :?

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by Wilko » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:06 pm

The Vic Emergency site has gone feral
And the worst hasn't hit yet 😧
I would hate to see the impacts If the winds get to 100km
Not good at all

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Re: Cold fronts 18-20 March

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:44 pm

With the number of fires in the SW now, one would assume the embers are travelling in the uppers a significant distance. Winds at 850 hPa are near storm force. Looking at lightning tracker over a 6 hour period, there are CGs on the border and a few offshore from Warrnambool. Nothing will control a fire with those winds unfortunately

Edit: Fires seem to be now spotting 10km+ from previous locations. Ember attack range is starting to get closer to the Otways

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