VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

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VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:55 am

Messy week ahead with a high to our south and an easterly trough dominating. Tonight an upper trough approaches from the SW with light rain developing across Bass Strait and parts of Vic. Models in complete disagreement for totals (e.g., CMC has zilch for Melbourne while EC has locally near 10mm).

Instability lingers through Monday in the northeast, then as the week progresses becomes more general. Quite unclear how the week will end, with EC and ACCESS bring down the EC-TC with heavy rain. CMC pulls most the TC residuals to the south and gives us a hot mostly dry end to the week while GFS sits inbetween.

Is one of the more frustrating set up for consistency in the models and between model runs, so obviously a huge amount of uncertainty. Based on current runs, FC could see anywhere between 6mm and 60mm :roll: for the week.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:10 pm

Rained over night here, at one stage it was decent,
under 1mm in guage,
SWW issued 10am.. can only hope..

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:41 pm

Extremely strong gusts of wind being experienced here, drying the garden even more. Plants are given a really good drink and by the next day very droopy again, even with a nice coating of mulch :x . Very trying this windy dry weather, will be glad when the summer is over. Received a miserly 1 ml overnight, enough to wet the drive!!

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Dane » Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:21 pm

0.6mm's overnight MTD now 0.8mm's.
Need Rain now !!!

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Blackie » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:22 pm

There's something about these ESE'lys that I find disturbing. And so does my dog. Winds gusting to 63km here in Elwood presently. Makes for a trying night of tennis.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by snowfall » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:23 pm

A mere 0.3mm last night. Takes us up to 2.9mm MTD. It’s dry! Just have to hope that the weekend brings something a bit more than a sprinkling. Windy currently here but not too bad.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Skywalker » Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:22 pm

Absolutely flew home on the bike tonight with that strong south easterly behind me. I actually ran out of gears at one stage. :P
I honestly can't remember the last time we had such a strong wind from this direction.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by jimmyay » Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:48 pm

This warm strong south easterly wind is really peculiar.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by WeatherViewer » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:02 pm

What is causing these strong winds? Can anyone explain...

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Onetahuti » Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:04 am

WeatherViewer wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:02 pm
What is causing these strong winds? Can anyone explain...
I think you will find that the remnants of TC Gita which is now and into Wednesday bringing heavy rain, up to 200mm and gales, gusts to 130km/h to central New Zealand is acting as a block to the system currently over us.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Onetahuti » Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:07 am

Skywalker wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:22 pm
Absolutely flew home on the bike tonight with that strong south easterly behind me. I actually ran out of gears at one stage. :P
I honestly can't remember the last time we had such a strong wind from this direction.
I cycled in the opposite direction, used level 2 of power assist on the bike to go down one hill on the way home, I usually use that to go up the same hill going to the nursing home.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Chritc » Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:16 pm

Been quiet on here!!!! The progs are doing their usual little shimmy east of the rainfall as the track of the ex-cyclone from WA becomes clearer. Still more wiggle room but the South-West of the state and now edging into southern parts of central look like getting a decent drop..... Even some storm potential developing now for Friday through areas including Melbourne.....

Might be a nice little system that catches a fair few by surprise given the rather uneventful spell (except for the wind).

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Gordon » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:43 am

Chritc wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:16 pm
Been quiet on here!!!!
Yes, I think many of us are feeling a bit beaten lately by rainfall forecasts that fade away close to the delivery date! Still, the latest system seems to be bucking the trend a little, with models and forecasts improving rather than retracting as we get closer. Fingers crossed!

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by snowfall » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:16 am

Yes there hasn’t been a lot to talk about weather wise. We seem to have hit a long stretch of the doldrums, with almost no rain, sandwiched between big rain bearing systems over Western Australia and New Zealand. We’re sitting on a mere 3mm for the month so far. Looks like a little patchy rain today, but might not be enough to register in the gauge. Some of it will be virga as well. Hoping that Friday/Saturday will deliver at least a few mms.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Wilko » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:00 pm

Warming up indeed and subs out
Melbourne has already exceeded 27c
Currently 28.5
Bom are way out on this one !

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:01 pm

Yes there hasn’t been a lot to talk about weather wise.
I've been off travelling with very limited internet. Also a bit (actually a lot) over this weather. Closing in on 4 weeks now without proper rain for us. Things are thoroughly crispy, and garden looks awful. This is probably the worst dry spell for us now since summer 2008/09. If we miss this coming event we may well approach that event which saw close to zilch in a six week period.

1.2mm for the week so far. Am hoping for 20mm next three days, but not at all confident in the models and the climate's ability to rain ATM.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Gordon » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:04 pm

A mighty 1mm so far today. It's testament to the lack of rain that 1mm felt and sounded like about 5mm!

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:50 pm

I can see some light showers on their way across, praying and hoping please come my way and give us some watering relief! :raining: :|

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:57 pm

Very slow moving, a few mls adding up now near Ballarat.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:40 pm

Heard it was raining in Horsham, they would be very impressed..

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