VIC: Return of summer - February 5 to 10 2018

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

VIC: Return of summer - February 5 to 10 2018

Post by hillybilly » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:01 am

Heat returning to most of Vic this coming week with high 30s to low 40s across the north, and 20s rising into the 30s across the south. State is really going to be split between those areas enjoying sea breezes in an easterly stream which will have a nice week, and northern areas which will slowly cook under warming uppers which end in the 20s by Friday. Nothing overly hot by February standards, but will still get toastie.

Struggling to see much rain. Will be a trough approaching Thursday into Friday but system is moisture starved. Perhaps the odd shower near the ranges and then drizzle behind the change near the coast. There is a solid break in the monsoon to our north with the active MJO having moved on and the mid and upper level southerlies the past week have pushed tropical moisture back into the deep tropics.

Btw pretty unusual setup in Queensland atm with monsoonal low rain falling into a chilly southeasterly stream. Plenty of places close to record low highs in the region.

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1065
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Didjman » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:17 am

The sky has a decidedly unstable look this morning here. Heaps of Castellanus.

Wilko
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 956
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Wilko » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:52 pm

Lovely weather BUT I'm getting depressed
Looking at the charts I wonder whether it's going to have rain again 😞
I neeed weather /storms Damn it ! Argh

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:24 am

Looking at the charts I wonder whether it's going to have rain again
Does fee like that ATM. Every so often the models throw up a bit of rain, only for it to disappear on the next run. Chance of a bit on Thursday/Friday/Saturday, but lookss mainly the odd thundery near the ranges. Might get some showers early next week. The synoptics look ok with the fronts, but there is too little moisture in the mid levels.

Warmth day after day in the north.

Woke this morning to a thick hill fog so a bit of humidity, but uppers are too warm and the mid levels too dry for anything.

Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:41 am

Not the most exciting run of weather I can remember, but pleasant enough I guess :).

Just to break up the tedium, I've been watching the last drifts of snow on the Main Range snow cams. There are probably some larger drifts we can't see, but the visible drifts on Kosciuszko https://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/austral ... uszko.html and Twynam https://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/austral ... thega.html are almost gone. Still, not a bad effort for the 5th of February!

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:13 pm

Still, not a bad effort for the 5th of February!
I was thinking they were all done. I flew over the region about a month back and couldn't see any snow, but those patches are well hidden on the southeast side of the Main Range so hard to see. Before the 1970s it wasn't unheard for patches to last through from one season to the next.

Warm weather continues...

Tassiedave
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:23 pm

Nasty storm cell south of Launceston at the moment, check out NW Tas radar

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:21 pm

Nasty storm cell south of Launceston at the moment, check out NW Tas radar
Nearly 50mm just south of Launceston. That is close to a month’s worth of rain. Wouldn’t mind one of those ;)

Looking across the progs hard to see anything breaking this pattern in the next week. We alternate between northeast and southeast flow (on most days). Might see the odd shower on Friday and Saturday, with a chance for a bit of drizzle in southern areas Sunday. Signs that things might change in about ten days.

24C here today, following 24C yesterday and 24C the day before. Beaut weather but rather boring....

snowfall
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 269
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (346m asl)

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by snowfall » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:46 pm

Definitely unexciting at the moment. It’s a good thing a lot of areas received some decent rain at the end of January. The ground is still moist here, but probably not for much longer. Calm, sunny and 28c as a max here today. Currently 14c. Sea surface still very warm in the Tasman and around Vic, so we’re still primed for some good rain or storms if/when the synoptics line up.

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:22 am

28C in FC yesterday. Thinking we will crack 30C today, and then fall just short on Thur/Fri and Saturday.

Bit of rain firming in the models for southern and mountain areas Fri/Sat/Sun. Timing is a bit mixed as are totals, but CMC, EC and ACCESS have been locally producing up to 10mm (or so).

Saturday also starting to look like a bit of a spike day in northern areas for temperature. 850Ts race towards the mid 20s so will make for low 40s in parts. Is shaping up as a hot summer. Currently we are on track for a close run at Victoria's hottest summer on record :roll: My gut feeling is that we will fall just short and come in between 2 and 4.

Lucia
Cumulus
Posts: 20
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Location: Lilydale

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Lucia » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:08 am

Thanks for great analysis HB for our neck of the woods, the hope of a bit of rain is most welcome, let's hope it eventuates, and I agree it has been so far a hot summer albeit without so many 40+ days for the southern areas, I really feel for those in those areas North! :o :oops:

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:04 pm

Stinkerin FC today with a max of 33C. Next three days also look hot.

Starting to dry out rapid again, so need a drink. Is a seriously wierd summer as we've had a lot of rain, but so many hot sunny days have really sucked the landscape dry in quick time. Areas which have missed the storms must be looking scorched.

Progs still holding piddles for Thur/Fri/Sat. Hoping for something to water the garden, but currently looks more like a mm or two for most (at most).

stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 1897
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by stevco123 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:30 pm

Well this is historically the hottest week of the year on average so not very surprising. Nothing unusual.

Still hot enough to merit a whinge haha
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

snowfall
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 269
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (346m asl)

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by snowfall » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:26 pm

Very hot here today with a max of 35.6c. Currently 23.2, so a warm night ahead. Still moisture in the ground, which shows how well the rain last week penetrated, but given the limited prospects of rain over the next week and beyond, we’ll be back to dry again soon. Sure feels like a hot summer this year, and still more than a month to go before a cooling off trend begins.

tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 330
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by tonycynic » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:43 am

Still warm this morning, bit of rain hitting NW tassie now. Glad it isn't here, roof repairs this week.

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:22 am

23C for a min in FC. Hot one ahead today, tomorrow and Saturday. Thinking high 20s for us. North will be 40s for most :(
Well this is historically the hottest week of the year on average so not very surprising. Nothing unusual.
One day here and there is nothing unusual, but we are current running hottest summer on record for Vic so it's definitely not normal :? In terms of extreme heat we've seen 4 days with 45C somewhere in Vic which is about two decades worth if you look back at the 20th Century. Fri and Sat will see a chance for another.

Models holding prospects for a bit of rain. Pretty consistent 2-10mm across the models Fri->Sun. Cooler week next week. The pressure pattern is looking a bit autumn like, with "proper" fronts just south of us.

Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:46 am

Looking for all the world like a rainy sky here with full, quite thick cloud cover. However all the forecasts for today and models say, 'Tell 'im he's dreamin.' :?

Edit: We actually ended up with a few spots, but not enough to settle the dust. Cloud has kept temps below 30C - so far.
Last edited by Gordon on Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1324
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:55 am

Not much to report from up here. 37c yesterday, already 32c today and high cloud. Not much rain on the horizon. Starting to spot a few interesting things though... http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 29#p104329

StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1001
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:54 pm

Yeah, another stinker today. Rather over it.

But Perth has had a cool summer and they haven't even cracked 40c this year (first time in 16 years):
https://thewest.com.au/news/weather/per ... b88738712z

User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 2206
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m (about the coldest spot in Melbourne)
Contact:

Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:59 pm

43.6C in Mildura, and 44.0 in Hay in NSW and 44.7 at Wudinna in SA the worst of it today. 40s or nearly there across most of northern Vic.

A humid almost sultry 27C here in the Dandenongs. Few spots of rain but nothing in the gauge.

Trailing trough to our south might drop a few drops overnight. Hot again tomorrow away from the coast. More showers Saturday.

We get a gusty change mid next week. Showers in the south. Looks nasty for fire weather further north depending on the fronts timing :?
But Perth has had a cool summer and they haven't even cracked 40c this year (first time in 16 years):
Perth is actually running right on average. December was about half a degree above and January about half a degree below. Wierd how they’ve had a stuck pattern like us with so many days in a fairly small range.

I can hardly imagine how horrible this summer must be feeling in the hotter parts of inland eastern OZ. It’s been hot here in the Dandenongs and we are about as cold as inhabited areas get in mainland OZ in summer :?

Locked

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 3 guests