VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

[Tassiedave]

Sorry to look ahead but GFS model suggests a deluge for Victoria and Tasmania later next week yet the BOM is virtually ignoring any potential for big falls. Why would this be?

[Skywalker]

Sorry to look ahead but GFS model suggests a deluge for Victoria and Tasmania later next week yet the BOM is virtually ignoring any potential for big falls. Why would this be?

I wonder why, especially after today's super effort.

The BOM get absolutely no sympathy from me for their Melbourne area forecasting efforts, especially when they are still predicting a 90% chance of showers & thunderstorms. That forecast was updated as recently as 2 hours ago.

I guess it is what it is, time to look forward to the next event. Fingers crossed this one comes off in terms of a proper drink for everyone & not just a select few.

[hillybilly]

Lost count of the number of rumbles I heard today from multiple cells but just 2mm in the gauge. As for the three day would have to be some hundreds of rumbles that I've heard for a fat total of 14mm. Really wierd with the lack of a trigger just leaving us with pulse storms which basically self organise then fade.

Now the models all have rain overnight. Doesn't look like it on the radar or satellite picture, so they will either be a bust or be onto something?? The southerly deepening could trigger convection as the instability actually sits aloft near 850hPa so couldn't entirely role it out.

Btw talked to someone who lives hear Heasville today. They reckoned it hail on and off for nearly 30 minutes on Friday night. Flash flooding everywhere. They've live out there more than ten years and never seen anything like it.

One cool day then back to heat and humidity. Even Tuesday could see the odd storm so could well see no break in the "storm somewhere in Vic sequence".

Time for the new thread?

Btw great to have all the newbies on the Forum Looking forward to the reports.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Emergency App reporting
Flood Eltham a little while ago,
Now Flood Ringwood,
Someone left the laundry tap on..

[Australis(Shell3155)]

HB more than likely the one that got Seville 27mm and flooding.

[Wilko]

What's with the radar
Playing games showing development to the North of Melbourne ..impossible

[Jake Smethurst]

Despite the cooler change, the risk for a storm hasn't diminished just yet. Would keep an eye on development to the north and northwest of Melbourne. While the risk is low, there is a risk! Better than none. Just don't be disappointed haha

[StratoBendigo]

Parts of Bendigo just got destroyed by one of the best storms in years. 10 cent hail, 30 minutes of torrential rain etc.... Still thundering.

[SC.]

The sky still looks very unstable. Could be a thunder clap that wakes us.

[Macca2395]

Not over yet! Getting a few flashes to my north/north west heading my way. Looks like a cell has just fired up over Gisborne too!

[Gordon]

Very confused day, as HB flagged very early on. Massive storms growing quickly, dying just as quickly; steering all over the place.

Expected all the action here in the afternoon/ evening but in fact had our biggest and most lightening-active storms from 8am - 10 am, with bursts of very heavy rain mixed in (7mm). Not sure if we'll scrape anymore tonight but the unpredictable way things have played out so far, nothing would surprise me.

(Btw continue to be baffled by the disconnect between the models for Thursday/ Friday, and the BOM forecast, as others like Tassiedave have mentioned.)

[Sean]

After today, I have zero hope for the 'looming' event this coming week

Really need to start a flop tally haha

[StratoBendigo]

28mm so far this evening and it's still raining and thundering. Windy too now.

It was quite a setup with storm from NW merging with storm from SW. 4cm diameter hail reported near Serpentine too. Nasty stuff. Terrible for crops if they haven't been stripped yet.

[typhoon29]

what the hell, cell heading this way from the north, some flangs and a low boom.......WTF!!!

[neil275]

Thanks for the welcome, everyone. Just when I thought the day's events were over, I see a nasty looking band headed straight this way. Hope it stays together. Nathalia copping it at the moment.

[typhoon29]

I love being this wrong, this cell has just unloaded! I honestly thought yup its over; urgh no it ain't! Hosing down.

[Jake Smethurst]

I hope it stays together for you too Neil!

Some local thundery showers popping up through inner-northern suburbs of Melbourne at the moment. That monster of a storm about to encroach on Ballarat. Good to see you got some more Typhoon Still touch and go as to whether it reaches Melbourne or other development occurs.

[stevco123]

Low cloud down here now, yet that band looks okay, even for a Broadmeadows radar.

[Sean]

Ballarat getting smashed. Hope you cleaned out the gutters, typhoon

[stevco123]

Well blow me over... a showef just developed overhead despite the low cloud. And looks like more to come from the West. What a day