AWF THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
TUESDAY 14th November 2017
There is a general risk across the majority of the state for isolated thunderstorm activity due to increasing moisture and instability. Any thunderstorms that develop are more likely during this afternoon and evening thanks to daytime surface heating. There is an increased risk for development about the southwest where instability is greatest, and also about the eastern ranges where stronger forcing is prevalent. Movement of thunderstorms if they develop is expected to be mostly slow, therefore heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is the greatest risk relating to severe phenomena, however large hail is also possible, especially in the southwest. Damaging winds are least likely, however convective outflows will occur.
Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 141117.png (51.31 KiB) Viewed 7269 times
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Got some Cu growing quickly over the eastern burbs on convergence between NW and NE flow. Nice crisp outlines and building so gotta be a chance. Also a small cluster of cells near Geelong.
The whole of the west is covered by convection but low levels are very dry so minimal precipitation. Looks to me like a dryline somewhere west of Ballarat ATM which marks the edge of the extensive Cu field out west.
Convection going off in SW and W and E suburbs, clouded over in N suburbs now. Activity much closer to metro than yesterday which gives us a better chance.
BoM going for 5 - 40mm Wednesday-Thursday CBD. As previously mentioned GFS quite excited for western half of the state. EC going for around 10mm in Melb. Expecting around 20mm here but could be easily more.
That Cb over the southern burbs was fantastic viewing. Classic LP cell with a beaver tail infeed. Guess some very isolated heavy rain with it, but mostly big cold drops.
EC downgrades, while CMC, ACCESS and GFS have significant upgrades. Whole pattern stays stuck for 7-10 days with humid conditions right through in mostly northeasterly flow. We should go southerly briefly Thursday and Friday. Going to end up a very warm November if ECs correct (after all those complaints about the cool start in the media).
Still thinking 20-40mm here next five days. Will be lots of local variations so will be some winners and losers when this is wrapped up
The latest GFS is currently doing its 06z run, with the predicted rainfall totals aligning with earlier runs. Hopefully, this means we can confidently see between 20-40mm across the Port Phillip Basin, which would be great as the gardens all need a good soak.
BOM sticking their neck out with the 4.30pm forecast for Ballarat: 3mm to 30mm Wednesday, 2mm to 15mm Thursday. Not much chance of a miss with that range .
.
