VICTORIA: November 5 2017 - Low and Front

[Harley34]

Inland low followed by a nice front showing up on the latest 4-day synoptics forecast from the Bureau for Cup weekend. I am not sure what to expect, but I am guessing 15 mms and more. Thoughts...?

[Gordon]

Charts look good but latest BOM 4 day forecasts are very underwhelming for Vic rainfall, as are all the models I can see. Weird!

[Tassiedave]

Good soaking rain in the Tamar Valley this evening, Launceston Airport 11 mm, Launceston 10 mm, Perth 10 mm, Scottsdale 10 mm

[Tassiedave]

Some unexpected decent rainfall overnight. 16.6 mm here at Grindelwald. Launceston 16 mm, Upper Esk 14 mm, Westwood 15 mm, Scottsdale 20 mm, Perth 10 mm, Tasman Island 10 mm, Hobart 5.8 mm, Little Swanport 10 mm, Ross 10 mm, St Helens 4.8 mm

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Been watching what weather is doing in Eden, out of nowhere 60% 10-20 for 2 days..

[stevco123]

...and in the meantime we deal with winter temp. Currently 6 degrees here but as low as 3 in places.

[Gordon]

Patches of frost on our hilltop & 2 C - incredible for early November (edit!).

[Macedonian]

Down to 0.5C here and windy. No frost as such but all the water droplets on plants and things were frozen earlier.
I pity the hordes that are going to the Hanging Rock John Butler Trio gig this evening. Brrrr.

[HarleyB]

We're sitting on 4.6 below average for November for the first 3 days, yuck! Almost 3 degrees below October's average maximum, which was almost 2 degrees above average. You just can't pick it anymore. I was going to cut off the dead branches of my jade but I'm still worried we could see more frosts.

[Tassiedave]

I can't see much rain here for the next 10 days.

[hillybilly]

Cool here but nothing that out of the ordinary. I've never found Melbourne's weather to be reliable until sometime after Christmas. I just did a quick look at the year in Vic and our day's are running nearly 1C above average with about 60% of days above average (and 40% below) so we are just levelling the ledger a bit Victorian's have always puzzled me a bit as our weather is pretty lousy and unreliable for much of the year.

I'm struggling to see much in the system for most of Vic. Will be drizzly in the south late on Monday into Tuesday, and the far northeast might catch the edge of the developing low. Just across the border it looks very damp, with potentially falls above 100mm in coast NSW.

Quite the warm wave showing up from about Thursday which will be welcome. Might squeeze out the odd storm, but doesn't look that great ATM.

[Gordon]

Another wintery morning here. Running about 7C below average for November maximums, and 3C below for minimums, which even though it's early in the month, is quite impressively cold.

I don't enjoy the heat, but something a bit more reasonable will be welcome .

[hillybilly]

Watching that upper trough and developing low impact southern NSW and northeast Vic, while we get the southerly gloom. Should see showers develop in central areas later today, but not a lot in it. Maybe locally 2-5mm. The central ranges might do a bit better depending on how sw or se the flow is.

Thinking we should see a mm or two here.

Warm weather coming up, though the high mainly keeps us in easterly flow which will tend to allow sea breezes to take the edge off the hot uppers.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Check out the BLACK on radar NSW. WILD
@ green cape and wondering if we will get the 40 to 80 predicted,
Will watch it out from Eden later in the day..

[Gordon]

Check out the BLACK on radar NSW. WILD
@ green cape and wondering if we will get the 40 to 80 predicted,
Will watch it out from Eden later in the day..

I noticed! Masses of rain just over the border; hope the eastern Vic at least gets some.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801 ... 4596.shtml

Balina over 90mm in hour forty.

[StratoBendigo]

Just more of the same clear blue skies and cool breeze from the South here... Very benign weather and no sign of rain for a long time. Perhaps something from the North in mid-late Nov?

[hillybilly]

Went into fog and had little drizzle for a while in FC. Wasn't expecting that. Didn't managed to tip the TBRG, but got close. Will call it 0.1mm.

Some signs that we could get a decent hook-up with the tropics mid next week but before then not a whole lot happening in model land

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Cold windchill out there it looked like a few snowflakes fell, but that's pretty impossible at this temp haha

[hillybilly]

Heater roaring this morning with the last of the cold ones. 2.6mm overnight and a few more showers coming. 10.2C for a max yesterday so definitely on the chilly side, and the wind has made it feel colder again. Would be nice to get a bit before the approaching long/warm dry spell comes. Time for our first summery thread, and hopefully some rumbles with it later.

Good to see some decent falls out in East Gippsland with this low, and just touching the northeast. Gippsland has had a very lean run, so will welcome any rain.