VIC: Warm & windy with a thundery rainband: October 11-12 2017

[hillybilly]

Looks like a cracking system for Wednesday with a strong front tapping a good feed of moisture. 850Ts spike to the mid teens ahead of the trough, with nasty winds aloft (850 winds topping 60 knots). Precipitable water values locally top 40mm. Timing of the trough is good, with it cross the state mid to late arvo.

Progs are keen on a good general rain event, probably the best for Vic for some months (though they have been known to get it wrong ). Am thinking mainly embed storms.

[StratoBendigo]

GFS has been consistently bullish for around 20-25mm here. EC less so but it would be good finishing rains for many grain crops. The only problem is that the quality of hay/silage might be reduced.

Garden will love it if it comes off.

[Didjman]

GFS Stormcast is virtually disinterested in storms. Cape of 400 max in Vic for Weds!
Peter

[Hunter1890]

Pretty much all models keen on the front entering Western Victoria on Wed afternoon. The West will thus most likely get more rainfall than central areas due to embedded storms. Front should hit Melbourne around 9-11 pm.

EC not too keen for good totals in Melbourne and Geelong metro areas. Probably due to rainshadowing. Hopefully this front tracks more westerly than north westerly so everyone gets a good drink.

That being said, if it tracks more NW then places on the GDR will pick up some significant falls.

-Hunter

[James]

the stormcast is not showing anything for melbourne...then again i find it highly unreliable, usually shows severe storms days prior then backs off to nothing by the day..regardless of what happens

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Send it down gently this afternoon, everything is in Blossom and looking gorgeous.
Wish the radar was back up, anyone have any ideas of when ?

[tonycynic]

Last night BOM were saying from mid day, now it is back to the evening. All a game of wait and see.

[Horts]

Stormcast GFS keen on first drops between 2-4pm, with it really picking up around 6-7pm (metro areas).

Looks to have already kicked off down towards the Otways, Geelong and the Peninsulas and upto Ballarat.

Interesting to see storm probabilities slightly increasing to NW Vic, hopefully these push through to the metro.

Won't be bothering with Broadmeadows radar, will just be looking to the sky. Strange they decide to do these upgrades during the Spring storm season.

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[Gordon]

Wish the radar was back up, anyone have any ideas of when ?

As this is Australia, and this is a critically important piece of infrastructure, maybe November some time?

[Sean]

I'm scared this is going to be another case of it slipping south and hitting Tasmania..

[Wilko]

that radar is absolutely crap !!!!

[Horts]

that radar is absolutely crap !!!!

According to Broadmeadows it's been steady rain here since around 11am - yet not a drop, nor has it really looked like it.

It either massively overstates, understates or misses it completely.

[Gordon]

Light, occasionally moderate rain here for the last hour - 3mm so far. Wind has eased off thankfully; was getting a bit fierce earlier in the afternoon.

Edit: I may have spoken too soon about the wind... Rain seems to be getting a bit heavier.

[Wilko]

Looks like some very good falls in Tassie

[StratoBendigo]

7mm here thus far. An impressive 35mm at Edenhope.

[Gordon]

Just had to show what the radar looks like as the rain teems down here (we're about the 'B' of Ballan).

[Hunter1890]

Once they get the laverton radar back up it will be bliss! Impressive cloud moving into central areas at the moment as observed on Himwari. Hoping hoping hoping that the GDR doesn't shred it too much. Garden needs the rain! EC not keen on much for northern melb metro nor GFS. Great to see the wimmera copping some decent falls.

-Hunter

[Horts]

Tassie absolutely copping it!

Pretty benign on the Mornington Peninsula so far, hoping it improves

[Timster]

Havent been around much, lots of travel with work...

Anyhoo - sitting here at Scarsdale and it's poured down, 13 mm in hour, most of that in a 15 min window. Perhaps a bit to come but who can tell withthe state of the radar currently!

[typhoon29]

hammered down whilst playing indoor netball (~1945hrs), sounded like the ocean was just outside bloody loud!