Vic - Sequence of fronts ending with cold mornings: June 22-July 2 2017

[hillybilly]

Chilly one here today with overcast skies and a wintery nwly. Max of just 7.2C after a min of 3.6C.

Front inbound. Hoping it thickens up a bit, and we manage to sneak up to 50m for the month.

Went for a walk this morning and creeks here are really low now. They should be running well, but are barely a trickle They ran well through summer, so been dropping when they should be increasing.

On and off system for Thursday has downgraded across the models. EC had around 20mm on the last couple of runs, and now back to a mm or two.

Good to see a bit in Tasmania (Tassiedave). Shocker of a month down there in central and eastern areas.

[hillybilly]

Seems like people have given up on Vic weather for June

Picked up 3.4mm her overnight, pretty much as expected by the Progs. Was hoping for a few mms more but not to be. MTD about 40mm now. Comfortably above our record low. Thinking we could pick up a mm or two today with a foggy morning and swly flow.

Few ok falls in South Gippsland and the the upper Yarra Valley, but otherwise just dribbles. Looks like a few cms of snow at Baw Baw, Lake Mt and Mt Buller.

System for Wednesday and Thursday looks a bit better across most the models. GFS is getting quite excited with locally more than 20mm, but most models more like 5mm.

[Dane]

2.8mm's in the 24 hours to 9am and another 2.4mm's 'since then.
MTD now 26.4mm's

[JasmineStorm]

a torrential 1.6mm over the weekend brings the monthly total to 4.6mm. 4 days left with the 144 year June record of 13mm in sight now for Kyneton.

The fronts are trying their best to break down this ridge but I think its going to take a few more to truly open the south pole ice chest. IMO the strongest in the short term is still early July but who knows really with this epic ridge. The ridge has basically severed any link to northern moisture ATM. Can't ever remember not having a north west cloud band by July.

The next major 46 day EC 51 member ensemble run tomorrow evening is what I'm waiting for. In early June, it picked up how strong this ridge was a month out, where the big individual models underestimated its strength in short term runs.

[stevco123]

I think today counts as the first proper winter day this year. Low cloud and frequent drizzle with the maximum temperature only going just above 9 degrees so far.

Perfect day for dealing with this cold i got yesterday. It's somewhat soothing looking at drizzle out the window whilst in bed.

[hillybilly]

Yep, was wintery in Ferny Creek Stevco. 2.8mm more for us in Ferny Creek and a max of 6.7C. MTD scraped up to 48mm for us.

Wednesday/Thursday two front sequence still holding. Looks like 5-15mm in the south, perhaps up to 5mm in the north.

Hard to believe but Progs are keen on a proper system next week... first in a month

[JasmineStorm]

A gloomy end of June day, sitting around 7c. Might get a couple of mm tomorrow but the dry record looks locked in now. I'm seeing a ripper frost Saturday morning....I'm thinking around -3c to -5c around here if that high sits in the right spot.

All the models are now agreeing a heap of cold air from next week. Moisture is still questionable but its going to be cold!

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 67#p100767

[StratoBendigo]

Cloud has hung around all day. 9.5c max so far and it could be our first single figure max for 2017.

[stevco123]

2nd day in a row where temp has failed to get to 11 degrees here. 10.7 yesterday (thanks to frequent showers and low cloud), and 10.5 today so far thanks to a cold start and cloud moving in just on time this morning.

[hillybilly]

7.6C here today under cloudy skies. Trough sitting on the wet coast will very slowly push across, then a proper front for Thursday but moisture starved. Thinking we should still squeeze another 5-10mm before the month ends here. Northern areas will get bugger all

Pretty likely Vic will have its driest June since records start in 1900 Hard to recall a winter month so lacking of weather

More normal weather returns next week.

[Skywalker]

Pretty likely Vic will have its driest June since records start in 1900 Hard to recall a winter month so lacking of weather

It's certainly been very dry, and I'm going to go as far as saying that this has been the most uneventful & boring year of weather to date that I've experienced.

[HarleyB]

9.2 degrees here today, finally a maximum below 10 this year! Matches well with our huge tally of 11 nights below 0

And to me it's actually felt like a very warm June for maximums, but just looking at the long-term average and we're running a mere 0.2° above the average. The nights are running 3.3° below average for June.

[Tassiedave]

Wow its a long way off but ACCESS G points to low level snow in Tassie next Friday!!

[93ben]

Wow its a long way off but ACCESS G points to low level snow in Tassie next Friday!!

I just saw a post saying down to 200m this thursday/friday...

[JasmineStorm]

7c degrees here, wont get too much higher. Fairly normal temps now except no moisture. Next front doesn't look like its moisture will get over the divide again. 4.6mm for the month, might even get to 5mm Never thought I'd see that in my lifetime for June in Kyneton.

Next week is still lining up. We might be able to look at weather observations without yawning

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting snapshot of the current global temps compared to the 1979-2000 baseline. Antarctica is now going off the scale compared to normal. The polar vortex is going blow a pressure valve in the next 4 weeks IMO.

[hillybilly]

Cool and cloudy here today, but dry again. Looks like 5 maybe 10mm to wrap up a crap month weather wise. We've got lucky compared with most areas too

Next weeks system is solid, but really the sort of pattern we should be getting weekly, not one every month or two.

Meanwhile, a nice upper low in SA which will mostly die, but delivering decent rainfall locally under slow moving showers.

[hillybilly]

1.8mm overnight which is a bit of a surprised. Puts our MTD on 50mm.

Front today, but not packing much moisture. Maybe 5-10mm locally in the south, but dribbles in the north.

Models killing next weeks system on the latest runs

[stevco123]

A break in the clouds let the temperature dip to about 5 degrees this morning, compared with 8s and 9s in most of Melbourne.

I think Saturday and Sunday morning will be interesting in terms of low minimums and frosts, provided the stupid cloud cover doesn't ruin the party.

[JasmineStorm]

0.2mm of dew has got me to 4.8mm for the month. A bit foggy on sunrise this morning but now its just a gloomy 5c. Last chance for a drop of rain tonight but if I get a mil I'd be surprised.

Saturday's frost map is enormous. The 1032 hPa high looks like its going to positioning itself in a perfect spot for -4c here.