Vic: Never ending High, June 10 to 20 2017

[Tassiedave]

The latest BSCH raincast is a mass of green colour. In fact over the next eight days except for the west coast of Tassie the whole nation looks dry.

[JasmineStorm]

GFS 18z just modelled a cut off low with a connected north west cloud band in 12 days that breaks down the ridge. It is then followed by 2 seperate polar troughs, with the last trough spawning from a 980 hPa cold core cyclone near Tassie, that has a brutal sustained polar attack into SE OZ. If that came off, we would be talking snow on the observation deck of the Eureka tower and the You yangs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 418&fh=336

Of course, this is hard to take too serious this far out but it gave me hope

[JasmineStorm]

15c currently here. Kyneton heat wave for June. Long term max average is 10.7c.

After todays GFS 18z, I'm keeping a close eye on EC and GEFS ensembles. Next major EC (EPS) initialisation update for long term is tomorrow morning our time. Last long term EC control run shows in early July a polar vortex surge not seen since July 12 / 13th last year but this time multiple surges over a 2 week period. Basically the high pressure ridge is gone. It's starting to look a bit more credible....

[Tassiedave]

If it doesn't rain in Hobart before 9 am tomorrow Hobart will equal its longest consecutive run of dry days in Winter in recorded history. The record is 16 days. It is yet to rain in June in Hobart. Mild day in Tassie today. Campania topped the list with 18 degrees.

[hillybilly]

If it doesn't rain in Hobart before 9 am tomorrow Hobart will equal its longest consecutive run of dry days in Winter in recorded history. The record is 16 days.

Wow, had no idea. The lack of fronts ATM reminds be a fair bit of 2015. Not sure whether that's a fair comparison (memory is less than perfect!).

Looking at the progs I can almost see a front in GFC, CMC and EC late next week. Nothing that significant (in the average) but could be showers. Progs are just plain wierd. Huge high and a trough in the easterlies off the WA Coast (more like an almost summer pattern).

Another mild day in FC with 11C at our place. One positive of the mild sunny weather is that we have basically stopped using our electric (heatpump) heater. Few logs in the fire a day are pleny enough to keep our house warm inside.

[snowfall]

15.1c here today - balmy and well above average. Seems the dry continues for a while longer. I am finding the calm winds rather eerie given the time of year, and especially for these parts. Just day after day of the doldrums. Really hope it's just a calm before the storm and we get some proper winter weather in July, or later this month. I hope GFS is predicting something real - I guess we will just need to wait about a week or so to see.

[hillybilly]

Looks like Perth and Hobart have had their driest starts to winter on record, and Adelaide currently the driest since 1957. Hobart still to see any rain, while Adelaide's scored 0.2mm. Melbourne's 9mm seems positively damp Just goes to show that this absence of weather is getting a little odd.

Highs, highs and more highs in the progs. That said, starting to firm for a front second half of next week. Scenarios are pretty mixed across the models - CMC has a cracking front, EC more a case of two troughs, and GFS something in between. Would have to be a good chance for moderate falls in the usual wet spots. I'm expecting we will revert to more normal winter weather from about tens days from now.

[JasmineStorm]

14c currently up here after a low of 1.5c.

Sitting on 3mm up to now, unchartered territory at this stage of June. 1969 lowest rainfall total of 13mm is in sight for Kyneton. It seems like half a decent front on the 23rd but we have been fooled a few times before this month I've never seen so many fronts forced south in June and the stats are certainly backing this up. With Antarctica currently still so much colder than normal, its going to go nuclear once that polar air escapes north.

[hillybilly]

8 to 11C in FC again today. That a couple of degrees above average for us. Sunny pretty much the whole day.

EC now decided to kill next weeks front (more or less) while ACCESS, CMC and GFS are a bit more hopeful. It basically comes down to whether the approaching front has it's top shear off into southwest WA and forms a cutoff (and another blocking high) and where this new block sets up. If we get the next block to the west of WA then we see a sequence of fronts, further east and it's just more highs.

EC scenario would see Vic headed for a record dry June

[JasmineStorm]

Nice summary HB. The 23rd is starting to look like a Tassie clipper to me.

EC is giving me zilch for the next 10 days. Hard to believe really, considering the last 16 days. I've never seen this happen in June to this extent. Might be time to put some feathers in the hair and start my rain dance...

[Tassiedave]

Mild temps today in Tassie 17.6 degrees at Bushy Park, 17.4 at Friendly Beaches, 16.2 Hobart, 16.8 Wynyard. Mild again tomorrow. Hobart forecast is 17.

[hillybilly]

Not wanting to jinx it but the models are all on for a front later next week. CMC, GFS, EC and ACCESS have something around Friday then a trough from the northwest entering the westerlies near the bight and allowing a sequence of fronts. Rain looks to be mainly coastal and near the ranges, but could add up (or not ). Could eventually get quite cold which will be a shock (and bring out all the whinges in the city ).

Might almost be time for a thread on an event.

Cool minima in the flats this morning, but nothing that remarkable for a big high right on the solstice.

Btw hearing some really odd reports from farmers with these high. In SW WA apparently some crops have flowered tricked into thinking its spring. Up here our grass is still growing, which does make the horses happy. Looking at our power use I reckon we are currently saving about $10 a week in heating costs here because of all the mild sunshine.

[JasmineStorm]

Ground hog day again. Start with a frost, got down to zero again. Fine, sunny and a top of 15c. It feels like late April, early May. One day closer to an unprecedented June record.

EC has upgraded up here to 1mm in the next 10 days That front later in the week looks quite decent for the western side of Tassie. Hopefully for once, we see it push into this annoying ridge and come further north.

[Tassiedave]

Mild temperatures in the South East of Tassie today with Grove 18.1 degrees, Campania 17.7, Hobart Airport 17.4, Hobart 16.8 Friendly Beaches 16.9. Elsewhere Smithton 16.9 , Bushy Park 17.5. Hobart extended it winter record of dry days to 17 days - soon to be 18.

Edit: Still 14 degrees in Hobart at 1015 pm!!!

[hillybilly]

Seems we had an almost front overnight. Woke to stratocumulus and a couple of spits of rain.

Looks like six more days to run with this high. EC, GFS and CMC then break the pattern down next weekend with a subtropical low coming out of the SW of WA. Could be ok falls with it, but bit far off to know, given the progs had a doozie cold outbreak for today just a few days back

[StratoBendigo]

EC looks ok for some colder weather next weekend and even GFS is coming around. Can't see more than 10mm in it though as it ridges out very quickly.

Heatwave today. Already 13c at 9:40am. What a joke, even some of my plants think it's spring. Going to have to do some watering this week.

Been here before though. Plenty of winters past where it didn't kick into gear until after the solstice (1972, 1984, 1991, 2003 (late July!), 2008, 2010).

[Tassiedave]

Hobart's record consecutive number of dry days in winter came to an end today with the grand total of 0.2 mm in the gauge recorded this morning. The driest June ever record set in 1979, of just 1.8mm is still a possibility.

[JasmineStorm]

15c again yesterday, 2c overnight. Still 3mm for the month. Bizarre to have a continued run of mid teen temps in the June up here. Lots of folks around here on tank water are running out now. Water tanker trucks busier than summer. I've still got about 40%.

Polar vortex is cranking but it's not leaking north. Same old story. We might get a couple of clippers in the next week. The new GFS version (parallel) is performing better the standard operational one from what I have seen in the last few weeks. The Americans might have a model to challenge the Europeans now for medium term

[hillybilly]

10C for us yesterday and looks like we may well go a degree or two better today. Nights have also turned mild with the uppers not that cold and wind and humidity just sufficient to prevent decent cooling.

Looks pretty likely that the pattern will start to breakdown from about Thursday or Friday. Would surprise me if we caught up on the month total quite a bit in the last week of the month.

BTW Adelaide currently sat on it's second driest start to winter on record (2mm MTD behind a record of 1mm ).

[snowfall]

Sure is an unusual month, and right across southern Australia. It's a bit of a worry. 15.4c here today, again well above average. Hopefully the final week in June heralds a change. A few showers later this week, but can't see it adding up to much in these parts. It could all change as we move further into winter, hopefully.