Vic - April 23-30: Mild then a sequence of fronts and cold air

[hillybilly]

Another active week coming up with mild conditions early being replaced by much colder air with a strong front moving through around ANZAC Day. Plenty of pre-frontal moisture so patchy rain, followed by much colder air with showers, possible coastal hail/thunder and snow on the alps. The incoming high will be slow so could well see a couple of fronts sneak in before it eventually clear around next weekend.

Hopefully this allows eastern areas of Vic to catch up with the bumper falls that have occured out west

[JasmineStorm]

Finally the ANZAC day system looks like a lock in. The number of times this one upgraded and downgraded over the last 2 weeks made me feel dizzy. Its game on now though, with the upper trough deepening today over SA then the Polar vortex sends a winter classic.

Wednesday morning, EC has the freezing levels dropping to 900 metres as the South Westerly hits. If there is a little moisture around, Mt Macedon will see snow flurries, Otway’s could receive a dusting with the Alps getting plenty. The rainfall totals should be pretty healthy by the end of the thread for south eastern burbs of Melbourne. Tassie is going to get lots of low level snow, almost sea level in the south west on a few models. I’m hoping to get 20mm for the week (do not want to be greedy after the last 3 weeks)

Seriously cold uppers on Wednesday morning, this looks like a late June set up. Fair chance a big Tasman cut off will spawn when it hits the warmer waters. Maybe another thrashing for NZ coming up.

[tonycynic]

Hope it is all over by next Monday, have a week in a tent up Eildon way coming up and these warm evenings would be beautiful up there.

[hillybilly]

Liking the look of this system for east central. Cold, wet and windy. Classic cold outbreak. Unconvinced of really low snow, but certainly should dip below 1000m... am thinking about 800m a pretty good chance.

Might well see some graupel in the Dandeongs, and pretty likely to see some cod air rumbles and small hail. Probs variously putting 25 to 60mm over the Dandeongs so could well go past our April average.

[Hawker]

I wish we had some instability today, mean looking, dark clouds all over.
Tons of moisture, just needs something to make it go bang.

[Gordon]

Impressive southerly fetch on the latest BOM 4 day chart for Wednesday morning!

[stevco123]

Nice and cold Wednesday. BoM going for 14 for Melbourne city.

Too bad cold air means drier air (usually).

[Geoff]

Favorable set up developing for us in the Dandenongs, and with it going on for most of the week we could end up with some big totals.
The only drawback could be a flow that's too southerly for us, but with the bay at 17C and some pretty cold air all week it wouldn't surprise me if we get over 50mm, and if the flow stays southwesterly we could push towards 100mm by next weekend.

[StratoBendigo]

Probably our last 20c+ day tomorrow for quite a while. Most models suggesting 15-20mm here. Good chance of 100mm+ April which makes it a sensational start to winter growing season.

[Geoff]

Convective type showers appearing out of nowhere over Melbourne area. Just getting first rains from them here now. Main rain area still way back over the border. Interesting start to the day!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Coming down here heavy on and off since 6.30am

Edit. Really heavy.

[Onetahuti]

A light nuisance drizzle here barely wetting the concrete, BOM saying on ABC 774 that it will clear before more persistent showers will develop later in the afternoon.
Hope that is the case as we are going out for lunch to Glen Waverley which we can do easily by bus (free with wheelchair pass) instead of around $60 by taxi.

Heavier rain started as I type.

[Tassiedave]

Plenty of rain in Tassie's north west over the last 24 hours but not much as yet in the Central North. Wynyard 43.2 mm, Smithton 22.4 mm, Sheffield 19.4 mm, Devonport 16.6 mm, Strahan 13.2 mm Low Head 8.4 mm, Hobart 4.4 mm Launceston 2.8 mm.

[93ben]

Been a couple of big bursts of rain here at work in north bawyln. Last time I checked the bom they said it was going to rain later today. They changed that to showers.

[JasmineStorm]

Currently 18c with a 16c DP, sunny breaks and a trough coming into the neighbourhood

Here is my 2 cents worth on the 9.40am sat pic.

[Didjman]

Looking to tomorrow, that cold pool is looking pretty good behind the front unfurling and headed this way!

Wouldn't mind a late season fireworks special this arvo / tonight
Peter

[StratoBendigo]

Rather humid outside atm - 21c and 64% R.H. Feels like we're in for another drenching tonight.

[Gordon]

BOM now has a warning out for heavy rainfall for parts of north central and north east.

[JasmineStorm]

Multicell clusters starting to spark in the Grampians, parts of SW, NW and Wimmera.

Atmospheric river is now flowing around 25 to 35mm ahead of the trough.

[Skywalker]

Looks like I'll escape a drenching riding home tonight.
Today is probably one of only two days I'll get to spend on the bike this week.

Wet night at the footy coming up.