Vic - Mar 24 to 28 Warm to Hot with a showery / possibly stormy finish

[JasmineStorm]

Looks like we need a new thread, so just kicking off one for the next 5 days.

We should see warm conditions on Friday and Saturday with a weak upper trough drifting through on Saturday morning that may kick off a shower or 2 as it drifts through the state. Then Sunday it tends to be dry before a strong northerly kicks in on Monday with it becoming very warm and windy. This finishes with stormy showery trough and frontal system moving through later in the day.

At the moment rain wise on, its looks like 5 to 20mm south of the divide and 1 to 10mm north of the divide but interestingly on Monday, we have another good tropical feed (precip water 35 to 45mm) coming down which could give the event a chance to upgrade if conditions are favourable.

[snowfall]

Fingers crossed for an upgrade. Stayed cloudy here all day - got up to 20.7. Finally a bit cooler tonight - currently 14.5. Maybe feeling a little more like Autumn.

[JasmineStorm]

Models pretty much on the same track as yesterday at the moment, nothing special to report.

A little bit of high cloud around today but really, it’s just another warm boring old March 2017 day. Seen a few these before….. Just checked and I’m running about 5 degrees above the 100 year average max March temp. Checked some nearby BoM stations and currently Redesdale is 6c above average and Kilmore 6c above average.

I know there has been talk about when summer and autumn is finishing and starting but I think this week is the official opening of leaf blower season. I’m hearing them everywhere when I went into town, so I think I'm going to use that as my seasonal guide for 2017.

P.S Something is brewing in the Coral Sea – I’m tipping maybe a wind warning for Townsville on Sunday and Monday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

It’s also one to watch for us over the next week, just in case it penetrates down the middle. We all remember what happened in Feb 2011 when a little trough got some moisture

[Macedonian]

What is the average march min and max for Kyneton JS?

[JasmineStorm]

What is the average march min and max for Kyneton JS?

Macedonian, 100 year average is Max is 23.6c and the min is 8.4c for March. Certainly have that covered again this year

[snowfall]

Yes I have been watching the low develop and getting organised in the coral sea. Should probably see it form into a cyclone tomorrow. Doesn't look like much rain for here tomorrow. We managed to register 0.1mm overnight from a heavy dew. Wish I could obtain good historical data for Gisborne South. I have scoured the Internet, but haven't found anything. Does anyone know of any good sources, or best sources close by?

[JasmineStorm]

25c here today, trough near the border now with a light band of showers on the radar.

Yes, snowfall. A monster is now developing. Everyone, If you like a good storm, do yourself a favour and watch this cyclone off North Queensland develop over the weekend. The size of this low is enormous for this stage and its about to move over 30c water temps with very favourable wind shear. EC and HWRF model have it bombing 50 hPa in 2 days.... a very serious weather event is about to unfold in Australia by Monday into Tuesday.

P.S found this nearby to you snowfall, should give an idea for rainfall http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... num=087174

[snowfall]

Perfect - thanks JS! I actually had a good rummage around on the BOM site, but still somehow missed that one.

[hillybilly]

Warm one here today with 21C. Quite humid with a decent arvo southeasterly breeze.

Looks a little thundery tomorrow. Chance for a shower or storm most the day. Suspect it won't deliver much until it gets close to the Tasman where moisture will be deeper.

Squally day Monday. Lucky we got the rain this week as it will be a near record hot airmass for the time of year. Cloud and a middle of the day front should stop it getting too hot, but still thinking low 30s on the flats. Could well see the odd mid 30s in the north/far east. Further north the NSW late season record could well fall (41C) and Birdsville is headed for a record run of 40s. Definitely the summer that doesn't want to let go and has forgot about the passing of the equinox

Btw the cyclone is coming on a near highest tide of the year. Dangerous situation if it comes ashore at the wrong time with so much development near sea level.

[hillybilly]

Looks like all the showers are evaporating above our heads

No real change for Monday. Hot with a blustery front. Some rain but not a lot.

[JasmineStorm]

BoM give a glimmer of hope for Monday on the last run. Unusually, MetEye holding a belief over the last 24 hours that storms maybe on the agenda in central areas Monday evening. Access R now backing this up a little.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

@ Grand Prix.
Checked Radar
Sky is Lying.

[snowfall]

A bit warmer here than expected here today - currently 28.3.

[Macedonian]

What is the average march min and max for Kyneton JS?

Macedonian, 100 year average is Max is 23.6c and the min is 8.4c for March. Certainly have that covered again this year

Thanks, i thought it mightve been a tad cooler than that.

[Dane]

A bit warmer than expected across most of Metro Melbourne.
Some quite large Cu around, not surprised to see one or two little showers popping up on radar.

[JasmineStorm]

Bubbling away.... little bit of colour in those little cells west of Melbourne

[mick]

Pretty hunid here, lots of dark clouds, turkeys going up but no action.;
Been like this since 9am

[Geoff]

Lots of showers about the region now, but all going north and south of us here, as is often the case with a westerly flow.

[snowfall]

We are just missing out on the showers too. Plenty of black clouds around, but just too far south.

[mick]

Bleddy too far north here!