June 17th to June 20th - One to keep an eye on. The sub tropical jet moves north and the polar jet moves up.
All the big models are starting to line up for a polar vortex pulse into SE Oz that spawns into a mid latitude cold core cyclone (probably an East Coast Low). EC controls think snow near Melbourne around June 19th A long way out of course but there is at least something brewing.
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EC,GFS ,Access run 0706 12z 18z.jpg (1.22 MiB) Viewed 12061 times
New GFS and the EC ensemble is locking in winter from next Monday July 3rd for a few weeks. It took a bunch of fronts but finally that ridge is weakened.
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July 3rd onwards.jpg (419.34 KiB) Viewed 11967 times
EC currently thinks an epic Victorian super cell outbreak Dec 29 and 30. Two warm core tropcial cyclones feeding the atmospheric river on this one. GFS currently has a Landphoon around the same time attacking with 120 to 130 km/h NW gusts.
EC did pretty well on the last one 8 days out
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EC late December 2012 12z.jpg (585.28 KiB) Viewed 11445 times
A long way out of course but there is at least something brewing.
