The Australian Weather Forum

Plenty going on in the models at the moment - so thought I'd create a new topic for possible events this summer.

The Christmas / New year set up across the country is getting more intriguing by the day. Some models are predicting heat waves (GFS & now Access). The Monsoon trough coming down from Indo has got things wriggling as well but in amongst the excitement, EC has modelled a major cut off low off NSW /Vic in tonight's run. The low is moving west in the Tasman back towards NSW and Vic on the last EC run. It might disappear in the next run but its certainly intriguing at the moment.

EC has lost it's Christmas cut off low in the Tasman on the last run and now the position of this potential cyclone off WA will drive what eventuates for Vic. It's currently a battle of the models. An example is Access thinks a big hit on the WA coast near Port Hedland on Christmas day which would lead to prolonged heat wave in Vic. GFS thinks the cyclone stays out to sea which allows a strong front from the southern ocean to hit Vic on Christmas day, setting off a volcanic frontal line of thunderstorms.

NW Winds at 850 hPA just north of Australia around Indonesia have strengthened this morning to 50 km/p that will assist in a monsoon trough burst arounnd the top end of OZ in the coming days.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 407,-8.643

With the Monsoon trough dipping south, the big models are disagreeing as you would expect this far out on the potential cyclone off W.A.

GFS Dec 25th 5am Cyclone is a high Cat 3 near Broome. https://www.windytv.com/?2016-12-24-18, ... ,123.728,6
EC Dec 25th 5am Tropical low near Karratha. https://www.windytv.com/?2016-12-24-18, ... ,125.171,6 - click on EC version
Access Dec 25th 5am Ex Cyclone in the Pilbara around 988 hPa (hit as a cat 2 on Dec 24th)
CMC Has not modelled a cyclone - only Tropical lows
Navy Dec 24th 5pm - 2 Cat 2 Cyclones off the WA coast - unbelievable set up, so I'm ignoring for the moment

What it could mean for Victoria during Christmas period IMO-
- EC and Access could mean a heat wave through the Christmas period up to Dec 29th and then a rain event.
- GFS's higher hit in WA would allow a trough to take hold and give stormy humid conditions
- CMC & Navy discounted for the moment.

personally I'm not on board with this scenario yet from GFS but it keeps modelling storms and heaps of instability on Christmas Eve. GFS proudly presents - 'Carols by Lightning Strikes'

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-37.64;144. ... 4/06&w=off

Partly cloudy and 27 for Christmas day.

New thread now created by Hillybilly for the above discussion around Christmas.

Seeing something interesting from Jan 16th to 21st. Most models are picking this up to around Jan 15th, so I thought its worth sharing.

Firstly, Jan 16th and 17th looks hot with the 17th looking like a fire ban. 2 monsoon lows from WA and QLD push moisture south with a southern front coming through Vic around Wed Jan 18th triggering a volcanic batch of multicell clusters that have tropical water canon feed. The Queensland low takes a path through the middle and heads towards to Vic during this period and feeds another strong front reaching Vic around Jan 20th /21st creating a water bomb Lots of downgrades and upgrades to come but there looks like something there

Just having another look at the Jan 16th to Jan 22nd possible event - this time through the eyes of EC..... it thinks Jan 17th is a hot gusty day, solid front on Jan 18th and then all hell breaks loose on Jan 21st with a major mid latitude cyclonic gyre that gives SE OZ a smashing over Jan 20th to Jan 22nd. Worth keeping an eye on still

Latest run from GFS (08012017 00z) for Tuesday Jan 17th - if that comes off, it will be a dangerous code red scenario for most of Vic if not all.

GFS's latest is still thinking Tuesday Jan 17th is a terrestrial heat bomb accompanied with wind gusts of 60 to 100 km/h across the state. CMC & EC are similar but Access does not agree at the moment. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=au&dpdt=

It's been. Mixed bag.
Th ask for the info, going to be some great reading here...

Thanks Jasmine, have to see which day is safe to go away for the night. It's hard getting away up here in the hills in summer in case you need to protect your property

No worries Shell, Robyn....

Models still moving around as expected but next Tuesday keeps a constant theme of hot and windy. CMC also has an interesting set up for next Thursday ATM.

EC also seems to like Thursday atm - 10 mm or so for us.

Upgrades keep coming and going but the big models certainly think there is a bit of moisture around later next week.....

GFS has been very consistent with scenario for the last week for Tuesday Jan 17th. Latest run for Jan 12th 00z is again showing 40c+, moderate NWesterly with a gusty SW change. Should be able to fry an egg on the outside courts at the Oz tennis Open.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=au&dpdt=

BoM and CFA's first guidance on next Tuesday Jan 17th fire danger rating.

GFS has been pretty good this summer spotting heat waves, it got the Christmas one 2 weeks in advance. Just spotted this terrestrial heat bomb in 2 weeks time on the last run (Jan 17th 18z) and thought is was worth a mention

JasmineStorm, what temperature would the pink sections of these charts equate to?

TassieDave, the light pink in Tassie on this run is around the low 30s. Higher altitude areas , coastal spots will be mid 20s.