Victoria: Warm then a strong front - December 7 to 10 2016

[hillybilly]

Quick warm up on Wednesday then a solid front for Thursday and showers into Friday. All the models are keen for solid falls in central and eastern areas. Quite warm on Wednesday in the north, but nothing too remarkable for summer.

Melbourne looks to be a bit of a dividing line between light falls (west) and heavier falls (east).

[JasmineStorm]

All models think this one is a bit more juicy on Thursday but less so for GFS. Might give it another couple of runs before I get excited about EC's 25mm but it seems at least 10mm is on the cards for here.

Still very early but GFS 18z Dec 4th continued to model a Victorian summer classic next week with it hitting around the 40's on Wed Dec 14 with a big SW change ripping through at night . One to keep an eye on if you live in the bush.

[JasmineStorm]

I just gave this event another good look . I'm now on board..... all the models are lining up although rainfall totals are still questionable. What won me over though was looking at the latest Himawari 8 sat pic..... you can now see all of its fangs snarling in the roaring 40's. This is a southern ocean monster.... put an inland trough in the mix and it could go BANG!!

[hillybilly]

Progs all lined up. EC, GFS and ACCESS all showing 15 to 30mm for central areas through to the east. Very strong front with the 850Ts dropping from around 20 to 0C . We will miss the hottest temperatures in the south with cloud and an early front Thursday but up north will be hot. Then... snow flurries in the alps like on Friday morning

Hope this delivers as next week looks scorching for much of southern OZ, and Vic won't escape it all.

[stevco123]

Looking like very cold Friday for this time of year with a maximum of about 14-16, but still can't see very hot weather next week. Looking like 30 and 31 next Tuesday and Wednesday and then 26 Thursday.

Too far out ofcourse.

I'm in aggreance about this Thursday being quite wet. Very much welcome rain.

[JasmineStorm]

No shortage of fun to look at this morning. Another great shot on Himawari 8 during daylight hours again now telling a thousand stories. That inland trough is looking very north west cloud bandish with a lovely feed from the Indian ocean. When that southern monster says hello to the inland trough, that is going to be one large agitated shelfie moving over Vic on Thursday morning. I hope for Melbourne's sake, the warmer water over the bay is going to kick start a bit of mother nature chaos and override the storm shields you guys keep turning on.

Next week is truly all over the place on the models - changes between the GFS runs alone are making me dizzy. My favourite is the nuclear water bomb that EC has modelled on Friday Dec 16th - 80 to 120 mm around central Vic.... just have to wait for the follow up downgrades now but one thing is now common.... the old summer volatility is coming back

[JasmineStorm]

Just a little bit of fun and nostalgia. Whenever a vigorous cold front comes from the deep in summer, I always have a quick peek at past events. I thought Thursdays set up was interesting when compared to Feb 2005 (record 120mm in 24 hours in Melbourne). Not saying this will happen but here are the latest maps drawn up by the BoM today compared to the kick off of that cut off low back in Feb 2005 link for those of you not familiar with what happened. http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sev ... ndex.shtml

[hillybilly]

Progs still looking promising. Pretty consistent 15-30mm for central to eastern areas. The cut-off for good falls is (about) Melbourne CBD. Will also be some decent falls pre-frontal on the northern slopes. Is a classic spring front running a bit late (December can throw these up and when it does they are often doozies ).

Thinking we should see decent coldies later Thursday and early Friday so might break the storm drought in Melbourne's eastern burbs.

Looking like very cold Friday for this time of year with a maximum of about 14-16, but still can't see very hot weather next week. Looking like 30 and 31 next Tuesday and Wednesday and then 26 Thursday.

Am thinking about 10C here in FC on Friday. A sub-10C isn't out of the question but is pretty tough (the stand-out in recent years is Christmas Day 2006 when we maxed out at 8C ).

As for next week, southern Vic looks like being spared with a sneaky front on Tursday and then sea breezes. The airmass over inland OZ will be record/near-record warm with 850T in the 25-30C range. Northern Vic gets the edge of it, with EC having Mildura near 40C Tuesday->Thursday. Hopefully the progs don't make a last minute change and sweep that heat south

[Harley34]

Can somebody senior please update the current situation?

From my limited knowledge, it looks like the low is deepening and associated front is strengthening to create a stand-up front to move through tomorrow midday. Wind looks to be average to sharp at times, with storm activity the focus I want to question. Also, I can see the in-feed from the Indian ocean from the monsoon trough and that connects with a pre-frontal to push through NSW and upper VIC tomorrow morning. As the high pressure system isn't that strong (1014), the difference in pressure (strength of wind) won't be that high, but this will allow for good rainfall because their will not be a lot of wind in the atmosphere. I am thinking a squall line or multi-cells...looks interesting. Short term forecast has the L at 983 and the H at 1013 so a difference of 30, anything over 40 creates very windy conditions...

Also, I am calling out JasmineStorm, HillyBilly, Rhino or Rivergirl. Add me on facebook and we can chat weather, if you would like. It is up to you

Facebook.com/HarleyT92

[James]

the stormcast has done what its done continually so far this season, predict good convection/storm chances then a few days before it all vanishes or is placed elsewhere.

Unless this time around the system is entirely different (?), i am not going to hold up hopes until I see it actually happening - so many so far have given nothing in terms of storms - havent heard a rumble for many months.

[JasmineStorm]

I love it when it all starts coming together.....look at that trough in the bight firing off a whole bunch of angry anvil crawlers and cloud to grounds. The models are doing their best to fire up the storm shield for Melbourne again..... the rising air temp differences are not so far apart at 500 hPA over Melbourne ahead of the front.....which is normally a storm killer. Should be a good rain band though...... I'm reserving my opinion on the storm front until later tonight, I've compared what was modelled, to what I can currently see on the Sat Pic, WZ tracker etc ..... not a perfect match you could say.

and what about this developing sub polar gyre, rotating its way north east towards Tassie, spawning this bunch of chaos. Modelled to be around 970 to 975 hPa tomorrow ..... keeping a close eye on that one

[Didjman]

Well, if storms dont come to you, go to the storms! I am flying up to my mates on the Gold Coast Friday - Stormcast looking really nice! Clearing nicely Saturday for an hrs flying in a Cessna. Should get some awesome lightning and cloud pics
Peter

[JasmineStorm]

@Harley - nice summary. I think Tassie might 'bomb' and drop more than 24 hPa in 24 hours ....maybe not for us in Vic (15 to 20) but you never know with this type of beast

@James - if the models are correct, there might be a rumble for Melbourne but more just good rain IMO. In saying that - don't believe everything the models tell you. Check out this little comparison of actual (WZ tracker) vs forecast (GFS stormcast) tonight as I type.

@Didjman - Nice!

[Gordon]

Nice comparison JS.

Still getting used to the discrepancy between systems like this 2 months ago (= floods) and the current forecast of mere showers; 10 mm if we're lucky.

Hopefully we get somewhere in the middle and stay green for a bit longer.

Edit: Blimey - check out the black-cored cells on the Adelaide radar No STW for that area yet??

[Tassiedave]

Incredible! Victor Harbor and Goolwa about to be smashed and no Severe Thunderstorm Warning?!!

[James]

well thinking about it, the best storms have been the surprise ones that have not been forecast

[Gordon]

Latest Adelaide loop looks even worse - surely big hail at the very least & still no STW? What am I missing?

[Didjman]

It appears the radar is over estimating.
Peter

[Harley34]

Can the Lightning hold up? Latest had the closest strike just west of Warnambool. Timing would have been awesome in the afternoon. I still think we can manage storms here in Melbourne, definitely rain. Wind is calm and conditions seem anticipating...

[James]

have to wait and see...except i am having trouble keeping awake..

is there any app that alerts you when lightning is within a certain radius of where you are located?