Victoria - Low pressure system - Nov 11 to 14th 2016

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Couple of decent warnings out..
getting gusty..

[hillybilly]

Lows a bit further north on the new model runs which is not good for most of Vic. Totals dropped quite a bit.

Still should see thirty mms or so here, but this morning looked like potential for double that. 3.4mm here today adding to 2.4mm overnight.

Bit of a heatwave coming later next week so would be good to give things a good drink.

[JasmineStorm]

Models moving the position of low tomorrow has certainly downgraded certain areas. Had a little upgrade here because of the move.

Has a lovely swirl on it now https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 32.71,2091

[Sean]

What a surprise... Not.

God this is getting old.

[Didjman]

A look out the window - not at models; high pushing in, pressure slowly increasing: all over red rover:)

[Skywalker]

The non-event continues here in the west. Really hoping for a miracle & we get something tomorrow. Otherwise the sprinkler will have to come out, especially with the warm conditions expected late next week.

[JasmineStorm]

Nice little band moving through here which is getting the gauge ticking. 3mm already, 15mm for the thread. Down to 994 hPa, I see Portland is 989 hPa with 28mm.

Low right over King Island.....which way will she turn next https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 25,-28.911

[hillybilly]

Models improved a bit on the latest runs. Pretty confident we should get 30mm or so here, and maybe more if we get a bit lucky. Do need it...as it's dried out quickly as happens this time of year when it stops raining.

Not really seeing a lot for northern areas and those areas which are rainshadowed to the west. The low is pretty well occluded so aspect and favourable topography counts a lot.

EC for late next week looks hot then stormy weird upper low parking over the southeast.

[Tassiedave]

Good falls for Tassie in the last 24 hours. The rain has cleared from the North East but ramping up now over the South East and Central North. Totals since 9 am yesterday include Gray 197 mm, Mt Victoria 110 mm, Upper Esk 89 mm, Mathinna 86 mm, Interlaken 73 mm, Sheffield 69 mm, Scottsdale 67 mm, Low Head 64 mm, Lake Leake 61 mm, Devonport 53 mm, Launceston 41 mm, Swansea 36 mm, Hobart 11 mm.

[JasmineStorm]

Nice few drops Tassiedave...... it's getting a great feed from the Tasman. Cricketers will be getting some good practice with the cards today in Hobart.

Low looks like it's tracked NE. Otways briefly dipped to 989 hPa at 8am.

[stevco123]

Oh dang. All going to the north east of the metro area.

Sprinklers will need to be checked today.

Unless someone can give me a glimpse of hope it will rain today

[JasmineStorm]

Since 5am, it's tracked NNE near King Island about 60km to near Cape Otway on the last Sat Pic. Looks about 990 hPa in the middle. It's new course has meant the rain bands are heading through Ballarat and Macedon Ranges which is different to the expected course 24 hours ago. I've already had 9mm this morning and its getting heavier now.

If it keeps this course, it may wrap around and come into Melbourne from the NW in the next few hours, then give a southerly attack later today. These lows change their minds though.....

[Skywalker]

Yep, yet another overhyped pathetic system. Once again everything is heading north east over the ranges and barely a drop here. I'm also getting a bit tired of Adelaide getting all the storm activity too & leaving us with leftover patchy shower rubbish. Very frustrating.

Another boring weather week coming up.

[JasmineStorm]

Still tracking NE - It's movements are meaning the rain bands are basically circling Melbourne..... NE Melbourne getting some now. I think the rest of Melbourne has to wait for the southerly later this afternoon. Cape Otway wind has swung to a south westerly now.

Already gone past expectations here because of its shift. 12mm so far today and 23mm for the thread....

[Dane]

Been a disappointing system so far here. Just 2.7mm's up to 9am today and none since.
System total 3.6mm's.
Things starting to dry out around here with pretty warm and dry conditions expected
later in the week.

[Hawker]

We have done ok up here this time. 10mm Friday night, and another 10mm this morning.
It was needed, starting to get very dry here.
Cheers Chris

[StratoBendigo]

8mm Friday night and 7mm this morning. So 15mm total. It means I don't have to start watering garden for a bit longer

[JasmineStorm]

Things will start bubbling around Melbourne's west in the next few hours and then around the eastern suburbs around dinner looking at the latest lifted index

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-37.35;143.81;6&l=li

[Wilko]

Suns out and very Humid
Feels like mid 20's and prime for some storms

[Hawker]

Quite a nice surprising system, another 6.5mm with the last line of showers.
I suppose in the end the moisture has come from the Tasman sea and wrapped around the low.