Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec

[hillybilly]

Another week and another event. A warm/hot week ahead with the southeast easterly flow becoming more northerly as the week progresses. Few things to watch.

Tuesday has a little upper trough with a fair bit of mid level instability. Progs been showing some showers and storms. Being high based these are not likely to produce much rain.

Into the weeked we'll get hotter weather then a rainy change. Will see temps into the 40s in northwest Vic (but hopefully nothing too dramatic in the south). Progs holding out hope for some decent rain, but been jumpy. Australia is moistening up so getting better prospects for rain wth this system.

[tonycynic]

And remember the Geminids this Tuesday morning.

[Tassiedave]

Hi Hillybilly, what will stop the extreme heat to be experienced in Mildura and Horsham from reaching Melbourne? Latest BOM forecast for Saturday has Mildura reaching 44 but Melbourne "only" 35 degrees.

[StratoBendigo]

Hmmm, might have to sleep in the lounge room later this week under the A/C...

Access-G is fairly bullish about reasonable rain totals on Sunday as the front taps into a tropical in-feed from the North. Other models beg to differ on rain totals - probably more out to the East.

[hillybilly]

First warm day in the sequence with 24C up here currently. Quite humid with a DP of 11C.

Bit of instability moving into SA which should be with us tomorrow. GFS, ACCESS and EC all have the odd shower tomorrow.

Hi Hillybilly, what will stop the extreme heat to be experienced in Mildura and Horsham from reaching Melbourne? Latest BOM forecast for Saturday has Mildura reaching 44 but Melbourne "only" 35 degrees.

The hottest air stays northwest Melbourne, but that could change. Southern areas stay in southeast to northeast winds most of the week which tend to be cooler. If we get proper northerlies on Fri or Sat without wind temperatures will spike.

North of the divide just looks HOT

Progs still showing rain on the back end of the sequence.

[stevco123]

My weather station predicsts a top of 37 on Friday and 41 Saturday.

I must say it's been pretty reliable in the past.

[stevco123]

My weather station predicsts a top of 37 on Friday and 41 Saturday.

I must say it's been pretty reliable in the past.

And there it is, official forecast for Melbourne is now 39 for Saturday

[hillybilly]

And there it is, official forecast for Melbourne is now 39 for Saturday

Latest run of the progs coming into alignment, and have a scorcher on Saturday. We get a weak trough with some showers/storms possible on Friday, then the winds go NE then NW on Saturday. An unstable day, but scorching. ACCESS has low 40s just west of Melbourne

Meanwhile, a cooler day tomorrow with showers about. Not much falling in SA so far, but might locally sneak a few mm's and looks better out east.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

70% of 10-20mm Sunday Yep lock it in please.

[Rivergirl]

We have an early Christmas dinner at a friends place without aircon on Saturday

[hillybilly]

Another warm one here today - 23.6C but continuing to escape the heat. No such luck in the northwest... lost of 36/37C in the Mallee/Wimmera.

Not much change in the progs. Light northeast to southeast flow next two days. Wednesday looks unremarkable, but edging up on Thursday. Fri has a trough sat through Vic.

Saturday is a scorcher, but not your classic. The preciptable water values are high with this set up... headed above 30mm on Saturday. EC and GFS both showing showers and storms. Going to be a YUCK day.

Rainband for Sunday looks positive. Fingers crossed it holds. Getting dangerously dry across most of Vic now. Keep an eye on those warnings for heat/fires

[Skywalker]

Have to agree with you there hillybilly, it's pretty bad now pretty much everywhere.

We noticed that things had really dried out down the south east on the way to the island last weekend. You know things are getting desperate when the green is rapidly disappearing down that way.

[Geoff]

Still green here (thanks to the surprise 12mm last Friday), but will definitely be looking a bit jaded by the end of this week.
Models still in sharp disagreement (as they seem to have been for most of this year), EC wants to give us 26mm Sat/Sun, while GFS only has 1-5mm on offer with most of the rain further east (again).

[hillybilly]

EC wants to give us 26mm Sat/Sun, while GFS only has 1-5mm on offer with most of the rain further east (again).

ACCESS is similar to EC - substantial rain - looks like about 20-30mm through here (EC has 26mm). GFS has a decent rain band, but it kinda sneaks through then thickens up past us.

Thinking somewhere between 5 and 35mm.

Things here are about the driest I've seen at this time of year... similar to 2002 and 2006. 2006 turned sharply wetter after Christmas, while 2002 was a shocker of a January.

[fireone]

Very dry here for mid December. At least a month ahead of average regarding curing. And some very hot weather on the way for later this week and the weekend.
Less than 5mm rain so far this month.

Fire risk escalating badly.

[Skywalker]

Definitely living in the wrong state. Time to move up to NSW to see some action.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia ... &ocid=iehp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Meanwhile here in the uneventful western suburbs of Melbourne it's a sunny 30 degrees according to the car.

[I_Love_Storms]

The NSW storms are unbelievable! 213kph wind gust in a tornado, 140mm of rain in 50 mins, absolutely crazy stuff! Some huge cells still going there as well.

"Very destructive winds associated with a possible tornado affected the Sydney coast around Kurnell at 1030 this morning. These destructive winds have now moved well offshore.
Wind gust of 213 km/h reported at Kurnell 1033am.
Wind gust of 125 km/h at Mollineaux Pt at 1pm.
Wind gust of 111 km/h at Kurnell at 1pm.
Wind gust of 102 km/h at Sydney Airport at 1pm.
53mm of rain in 1/2 hr at Rose Bay to 1:45PM
32mm of rain in 1/2 hr at Cronulla to 1:19pm
17mm of rain in 10 mins at Doorlong at 3:13pm.
Wind gusts of 142 km/h at Molineaux Point (Botany Bay), and 111 km/h at Little Bay this morning.
144 mm of rainfall was recorded in one hour to 1030am at Long Island Point (just south of Nowra)."

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65152.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[mick]

NSW TV news will be worth a look tonight for sure.

Very hot in SA at present. We are lucky so far with lack of northerelies but party is about to end.
False sense of security as inland is baking, getting hotter and hotter, just waiting to come down here.

Flew to SA in sep oct nov, sep was green, very green but green drought as come nov, only green is irrigated land for 600k in any direction.

I think dams are at 73% we are well and truly into another drought I reckon. I expect the desal to get a run in 2016.

[hillybilly]

Escaped the heat, but going to start from tomorrow. Not liking the look of Thur/Fri/Sat - high 30s into the 40s for anywhere away from the coast.

Front on Sunday looks to be speading up a bit so might avoid a stinker with a squally NW wind (not a nice scenario). Progs are wiggling on rain... GFS and ACCESS have upgraded to 20-30mm here while EC has downgrade to 15mm. Still thinking something between 10 and 25mm looks a decent chance.

Saturday looks nasty, particularly western areas with a few days baking then gusty N to NW winds

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Might be time to pack a fire bag.
Our native grasses went brown long while back, love the look of them green a Lot more.