The Australian Weather Forum

Didn't see this thread. Pretty confident with this system but may come down to positioning. Not too dry this year so far with lots of humidity up north we have just been waiting for it to move south which looks like happening from about Thursday onwards with latest progs showing 50 to 100mm in central areas

After a bit of a scare (downgrade from GFS and EC), GFS has now come back with falls between 50 and 100mm, even the odd spot on eastern ranges showing higher totals (up to 150mm). Still a way off but hopefully will stick.

GFS upgrades with totals from 50 to 150 across wide parts of the state!

WOW

Looks to be favouring central and east at the moment but elsewhere may have 25 to 50 if lucky

Hope we can score a shower but we the dryness up here needs and 2011 type event to get wet now. Reckon that's a bit unlikely however welcome it might be! Just got told I have to feed sheep for another week now so it can pour down if it likes. It will be all gone in a week!

At least this system has held steady across several models for a few days now; if anything some slight upgrades.

'Bullseyes' move around from run to run but the sense is that even we west-central folk are in with a chance for something decent later in the week. Enjoying droughtbreaker & hillbilly's analysis as usual.

EC sticking with 100mm for Eastern suburbs but spread over 4 days instead of 2 which is good. (Thursday to Sunday) will continue to chop and change and totals could differ substantially depending on storms. EC has 125mm for Lilydale.

Latest runs all looking very promising. If we can just make it through tomorrow...

OK, I am back! And this coming event has me just a little bit excited.

As has been mentioned before, shades of January 2011 (although hopefully no damaging floods). EC has 110mm for Bendigo next weekend . Hard to believe, but who knows? Stranger still that we're meant to be in an ElNino....

Going by the following downgrade formula:

y = ((a+b+c+d)/e)×100

a, b, c, d are the top 4 weather models. To keep it simple, if the system is "on" (ie. at least 10mm of rain in any given location) it scores a 1, otherwise 0

e = 4 if it's the day before the event, 5 if 2 days out, 6 if 3 days out, and 7 if it's 4 days out. 8 if it's 5 days out, 9 if it's 6 days out and 10 for 7 day's out.

y = probability of the event happening (percentage terms).

So, IF all models are on board still come Sunday we will have a 57 % chance of this event coming off (4/7) x 100 based on really negative, gloomy model. I promise this model won't let you down, and remember, if all forecast models are on board a day out, it's a 100% goer!

StratoBendigo » Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:36 pm wrote:

StratoBendigo wrote:OK, I am back! And this coming event has me just a little bit excited.

As has been mentioned before, shades of January 2011 (although hopefully no damaging floods). EC has 110mm for Bendigo next weekend . Hard to believe, but who knows? Stranger still that we're meant to be in an ElNino....

Not altogether, Melbourne CBD highest daily rainfall total of 113.4mm was recorded on Feb 3, 2005 during the last El Nino

Thinking the thunderstorm risk today is pretty high for particularly western and central districts. Could see some severe organised action as well in my opinion along the trough, which will not bode well for fire conditions considering the winds that could be associated with them. Hopefully there will be some moisture in the storms but I'd say a mix of wet and dry today. Pretty confident of storms developing, already in South australia.

Hey everyone,

Brand new to the forum and very happy to see it active and with up to date info.

Those storms popping up in SA have done that in the last 40 minutes, they have built up very quickly.

I'll be going for a drive out west. I think Geelong/north of Geelong maybe a good bet?

Thanks

Rob

Hey Hillybilly,

I was still home when writing the post. However, we decided to head towards Werribee, Cocoroc, Little River and Ballarat.

Here are the shots from the trip/storm out towards Little river, it was very good.





Highlights were getting blasted by very strong winds (around 100 Km/h) and realising they were getting sucked into the storm about 1 km away. Never felt anything quite as extreme as that and will be there for the next chase.

Then we drove to Laverton and saw 5-6 lighting strikes to ground about 5 kms away. Unfortunately that's when the cool front hit and the storm lost intensity.

There was also lots of low hanging scud which we kept an eye on.

Anyway, hope you enjoy the shots and fingers crossed for more storms soon.

Rob

We're gonna need a bigger boat honey"
According to GFS
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS keeps upgrading... Hopefully it can hold!! Looks like a big event if comes off maybe biggest rain event since Feb 4 2011

It looks like a rare scenario with all the moisture
Going camping down at Wye River for a week starting tomorrow ..could get interesting

Looks very rare GFS keep upgrading it! A big trough and/or ex cyclone coming into play for much of Vic according to latest run looks like a ton of tropical rain for a heap of the state. Records could fall

The BOM forecast seems at odds with GFS for example for Horsham it just mentions "Showers" or a "Shower or Two" for Thursday through to Saturday.