Victoria: Long summer like spell: late October

[Geoff]

Cool change has just gone through Geelong with a 10c drop from 29c to 19c in half an hour. Winds generally easing from the west too. 23c here and very hazy.

[nafets]

Cool change just came through here. Feels so good hahaha

[I_Love_Storms]

Feels like summer already! Need some bloody moisture!

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah GFS is looking good for Wednesday afternoon/evening storms. EC not wanting much of it at this point. Keep an eye on it, definitely some instability there Wednesday

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS still holding for tomorrow, LI into severe negatives -7 -8...the potential is there for something very nice, but doesn't look like a ton of precipitation, would have to be a chance for severe storms. Looking forward to it!

[Jake Smethurst]

GFS does look quite good in-terms of instability. Haven't seen that much deep instability in a while for such a wide part of Victoria. Particularly regarding the lifted index (-6 to -8) and convective potential (1,000 to 1,800 J/kg). I'd be quite surprised if there isn't any storms tomorrow but in saying that the set-up is lacking a moisture profile, especially ahead of the system, so if they do develop they may be on the drier side and dry lightning could be a risk. Nonetheless, I'm tipping development ahead of and on the system itself, particularly for the southwest and central parts during the afternoon and into the evening. I'd suggest damaging wind gusts are the biggest threat regarding severe phenomena, but of course large hail and flash flooding I don't think could be ruled out at this point. I'll take a look at the progs a bit later this evening when I have more time..

Otherwise, it's been absolutely beautiful today. A little chilly to start, but lovely out there now. Have been filming all afternoon in this perfect weather!

[adon]

Hoping on the off chance we get a rumble here but we are now in fire season for sure. Roadside slashing has been left way too late and another fire was started today. Lightning will be a concern for those who have crops worth harvesting. Most of us however would like some sort of precip even with the sparks!

[Jake Smethurst]

Just for interests sake, we released the severe weather outlook a few days ago see here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivtlto9yNcM or here http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 142015.pdf

[droughtbreaker]

Latest GFS* showing 10-25mm widespread across southern VIC with, and for a period after the trough.

It's looking more to me like an organised band of storms (weakening as it moves east due to late timing for central and eastern) coming in with the evening change and spreading out to rain before dissipating overnight (which is the common scenario with this setup), rather than a more chaotic outbreak of storms during the day.

Severe phenomena may occur, mainly in the west of the state.

*GFS is by far the superior model when high convective potential is the main factor in rainfall development. I have seen EC and other models go for 0mm or very low totals before many convection rain/storm events in the past so I am not overly concerned at this stage at the completely fine weather these models are progging.

[droughtbreaker]

Many of the major models showing a return to a more normal Spring pattern later in the 10 day period with the westerly belt and strong cold fronts making a return. Hopefully this will see a 'flush out' of the stagnant severe heat buildup over the inland of the continent we are seeing atm and a return to temps closer to average and rainfall.

On average, September/October is the wettest time of the year and also the time of year with the strongest cold fronts. The pattern we are seeing currently is mid January and starting to get really frustrating.

[I_Love_Storms]

Hmm I'm interested in today....we may get lucky. West of the state has the best chance of severe storms, as DB said, may flatten out to rain later. 5-10mm maybe for Central areas - higher if the storms are more severe and long lasting, lots of Precip Water available

[Wilko]

We need someone on the ground in the western district to report
If there's any development it looks like it will be much later

[Skywalker]

Feeling storm starved. Been a lousy few storms seasons down here the past three spring/summers with only one or two proper storm outbreaks. This year we've had one in September, which was pretty lame here to be honest (but much better about 5km to our southwest).

Know exactly how you feel hillybilly. We haven't had a proper storm (and I mean proper) since Christmas day 2011. Everything since then has gone north, south, east, west & completely missed us.

These constant dry conditions are a real concern considering it's October.

[Geoff]

These constant dry conditions are a real concern considering it's October.

(In Chinese accent), "Old Chinese philosopher he say, Dry October = Wet November"

Looking back through local records for my area from 1988, a dry October has more often than not been followed by a wet or very wet November and/or December.
We shall see......

[I_Love_Storms]

Lightning out west showing up on tracker:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Almost time for a STW I would think, may as well put it out there before they start occurring!

[Wilko]

Exploding out west
Also cells near Ballarat

[I_Love_Storms]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DAMAGING WIND

For people in the Wimmera and parts of the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:10 pm Wednesday, 22 October 2014.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Walpeup, Horsham, Stawell, Warracknabeal, Ballarat and Ararat.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 7:10 pm.
If severe thunderstorms develop in the Melbourne Area, a more detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued to people in this area.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 6




BOM don't really want a piece of it:

Cool change. Chance thunder.Chance of any rain: 20%
Melbourne area
Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h shifting south to southwesterly in the evening.

GFS still on it but pushing most rain north....may be in with a chance but it may just come down to the timing being off and the storms may dissipate after dark, it will be interesting to see

[Gordon]

Really rapid development to the west to match that STW.

GFS is sticking doggedly to 10 mm + for us in the next 24 hrs - other models seem equally determined we'll get very little. As hillybilly has commented, amazing divergence given the event is on our doorstep. So far, the radar suggests GFS may be right

[Jake Smethurst]

Yep ... there they go, on and ahead of the change. Quite slow moving so if you're very lucky and score a large enough system you might get a handy fall! Surprised there are so many considering the very dry conditions ... nevertheless the atmospheric environment was very unstable, so there you go! GFS is by far the more superior model in-terms of convective events, thus the model divergence.

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS not far off!!!



(Yellow chance, Orange likely) - there are more storms than that chart predicted and a tad further north, that's about the only difference, timing is pretty good!

LI at 5pm:

http://stormcast.com.au/viewimage.php?i ... null.0.png" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think this event will mainly be concentrated to NW ranges.