Victoria: Cool change with showers and storms: April 2-3

[johnno]

Most models including EC have dropped the idea of the low now for Fri and Sat which astounds me considering EC has had it for the past 8 runs in a row but then weakens that system entirely tonight and has it in the Tasman sea. GFS may be right after all as for tomorrow 3-5mm western suburbs, 5-12mm eastern suburbs. Any rain is welcomed, trees looks incredibly stressed still.

[Wilko]

Can't believe another downgrade
Love Accessg for next week ..looks apocalyptic

[Geoff]

Can't believe another downgrade
Love Accessg for next week ..looks apocalyptic

Trouble is, the way this year is going, "apocalyptic" a week out ends up being a complete flop when it arrives!
Still, the law of averages says eventually one of these systems must deliver (doesn't it?)

[wolfcat]

All time highest overnight minimum for Melb in April was 23c ( according to The Age ), last night new record set 23.6c at 08:03am

[stevco123]

All time highest overnight minimum for Melb in April was 23c ( according to The Age ), last night new record set 23.6c at 08:03am

Doesn't count in my books coz of the UHI. It's a "fake" reading.

[wolfcat]

Was also the same temp at the new Olympic park site as well

Doesn't count in my books coz of the UHI. It's a "fake" reading.

[Onetahuti]

All time highest overnight minimum for Melb in April was 23c ( according to The Age ), last night new record set 23.6c at 08:03am

There can be a difference between overnight lows and 24 hour lows, 'yesterday's' official low will have been recorded @ 9.01am yesterday which likely was 23.1°C. Maybe for actual night time hours it was the highest, for me I had a low of 23.4°C by my best estimate around sunrise. Whatever the case it was a warm night.

[Skywalker]

Turning out to be another pointless waste of time pathetic system for this crack infested neck of the woods, although it was to be expected.

[johnno]

Another major flop for Melbourne seems to be one after another this Year models did have around 5mm but should of known that amounts to nothing in 2014.

Mabye a mm or 2 in the drizzle overnight that we might get.

[Dane]

Had a record (13 years of records) Min of 23.4c up to 9am but its back to 22.0c now.
Just a few spits of rain not enough to register and looking at the radar we might not get enough to register either so much for the 2 to 8 mm's the BOM was expecting.

[stevco123]

Forecast for rain tonight in Easter suburbs and showers elsewhere.

Where from?

[Rhino]

In all fairness I think the BOM do class gippsland as part of the east burbs of melbourne so that forecast will be spot on . May develop a bit in the nth later but looks to be developing more in the east of the state, which I think most here knew it would. 1mm here and hoping for something later, stranger things have happened .

Rhino.

[Gordon]

All of Melbourne including the outer eastern suburbs is well with the Central forecast district - http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/map.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Seems what's happened is that what BOM forecast is actually playing out a hundred km plus east. Not a great result from just a few hours out.

(But I would love to proved wrong!)

[Rhino]

Yes I was posting that with a healthy dose of sarcasm and that is exactly what is happening Gordon, just that BOM didn't see what is now occurring in this mornings forecast but does happen from time to time.

Rhino.

[Gordon]

Ahh - sorry Rhino, I should have guessed !

[norwester]

Raining a bit up here, Mildura radar down - of course!!!

[Wilko]

Radar looking somewhat interesting
Seems to be developing very close to CBD
May get a storm or two

[Rhino]

Perhaps even the BOM are getting a little pessimistic at the moment too, probably with good reason after this last effort . Duty forecaster on ABC radio this morning thought there might be 1-2mm next week, more so the NW of the state, and nothing much in the outlook. Most of the models I'm looking at have good or very good totals over the whole state for next week which can all change of course but they might be getting overly cautious perhaps or I'm missing something completely? I can feel a new thread coming soon.......

Rhino.

[johnno]

The difference between all these events of late that has missed us and climaxed to the east and next weeks potential event is the rain peaks over WA and SA and is widespread! So IF it gets to Victoria it should deliver especially for western and northern areas. Can't say I blame the BOM at the moment though.

[Jake Smethurst]

Bit of a drizzly day here with cool and overcast conditions.

Maybe next week the tables will turn?