Rain Event - Thursday May 30th - June 4th 2013

[BERVY]

Anyone ... ?

Just adjusted the thread title for the purpose of it now being a large scale event

[Geoff]

Bervy, if it's a weather forecast you're after, here is the current prognosis from the BOM;

Thursday 30 May

Cloudy. Isolated showers, increasing to areas of rain during the afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending north to northeasterly during the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 16.


If it's something else, then you'll have to be a bit more specific old chap!

[BERVY]

Thanks Geoff.

Well, I do realise that anything outside Greater Melbourne probably has little interest ... but I was looking at the forecast and GFS for North East Vic towards the end of the week. Looks like we here might get a drop or two hopefully and was wondering what the experts think.

Cheers, Geoff.

[Geoff]

Latest GFS is a bit of an eye opener!

gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2013052606z.start-0.stop-192.vic.png (46.8 KiB) Viewed 11214 times

[Rhino]

Does look interesting but mainly after the 30th, OCF giving a few mm's for most districts but some models going for some nice totals (20mm+) so who knows really, will stick with OCF as the general overall concensus and wait until it falls in the gauge. Looking like 5mm and upwards generally across the state but early days yet, GFS has 10-25mm across nth and nth central areas up to the 31st but plenty more after that.

Rhino.

[occluded]

OCF looking more interested this morning with 16mm (100%) Friday and 10mm (100%) Saturday for this area. Norwegian EC onboard with 12mm.

[Karl Lijnders]

Good morning everyone! Long time between drinks, life has thankfully settled down somewhat.

Things looking promising from this system. I suspect a lot of chopping and changing from models over the coming days as details will follow really where the cold air and low pressure decides to form. I am of the belief that the weather will begin to turn on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the state from a decaying mid level trough and front sliding SE over the state. Perhaps even some rain areas over the NE in the windward slopes areas of the divide.

Friday a stronger system will be on the approach so all that shower and storm activity from the previous day will fill into areas of rain across the state, moderate to heavy falls in most districts and a good late break from the state to persist into the weekend.

A low pressure system may wind up over Bass Strait waters with strong SW onshore winds. Widespread showers, local thunder and hail and even further areas of heavy rain, for southern and eastern areas of VIC. Perhaps snowfalls down to 900m for a period into Sunday.

Showers to continue over northern areas across the weekend with afternoon hail and thunder.

Into next week, the Indian Ocean is continuing to show signs of an increase of moisture and further rainfall across the state is likely develop for the first couple of weeks of June.

Good times ahead.

[Rivergirl]

Sounds great Karl, we definitely need the rain

[Karl Lijnders]

Been some drier spots around that is for sure, but they are starting to get that much needed rain.

The SW before May, was very very dry,

[Gordon]

Thanks for the update Karl & pleased to see the dates extended for this one. I'd add my humble opinion that it is looking more and more like a significant rain event for much of the state, possibly including/followed by a cold blast.

[occluded]

Yes, thanks Karl and good to see you back again!

GFS seems to have jumped onboard in the latest 00z run with 25-50mm here, Norwegian EC now showing 11mm Friday, 30mm Saturday and 7mm Sunday.

Got the fingers crossed for this one.

[Geoff]

Norwegian (EC) going for 48mm for Birchip adon in the next 4 days, is that good for you or too much? GFS has between 25-50mm as well, so looks like you northerners are going to get a decent drink this time. Seems most of the models are going for 25-50mm widespread over much of Vic, surely no huge downgrade this time, all the elements are there.

[Rhino]

Looking good and for the first time in a long while, for around my district anyway, models seem to be increasing totals instead of decreasing them. EC doubling this mornings runs total and now has 60mm until sat, OCF around 40mm and GFS 25mm+ so fingers crossed it actually happens.

Rhino.

[adon]

48mm is a big rain and while I don't believe it (that we will get that much) we could take that much as long as it is not all in one day. Over the course of a week 50mm would be a massive boost to people's mood! Long way out yet and not locking anything but will be doing a lot of burning the midnight oil until it does rain.

[Pane]

G'day

I too am hoping for a good drop of rain from this. Got real excited when I looked at elders today and it said 90% 10-20 for Thursday Friday and 90% for Saturday. Will stuff up my plans a little but I don't care. We need it here to keep these rope moving while there's still some kick in the sun.

Cheers

[Geoff]

The big downgrade has come this morning for southern areas, but still looking good for northern Vic and southern NSW, and still a statewide event.
Mild and windy here this morning, currently 12c at 0740hrs.

[sparra]

Norwegians had 40mm for us here last night.....back down to 6mm this morning..... Meanwhile weatherzone have upgraded us to 40-80mm.....how confusing......anyway I don't think I have ever seen 90% of 40-80mm this close to the event.....hoping WZ are more on the money that would give us a HUGE boost for the season ahead.

[Karl Lijnders]

The system comes through in two parts it appears, tomorrow and Friday which looks thundery across the state with 10-25mm likely for many areas and then the follow up low which I think will travel across the guts of the state bringing much needed rainfall to inland areas and modest falls south.

If a low forms out in the Tasman Sea or Bass Strait then it will be wetter for southern areas but at this time, the models are still split and we await further information.

I think the first system will set up the low across the weekend and determine where it travels.

Looking at 30-50mm for the Melbourne area from the event.

[stratospear]

I think 20-30mm along the Murray into the Northern Country looks most likely over the next few days before the next monster anti-cyclone moves quickly in. Melb likely to get 10mm or less. Was hoping yesterday's EC forecast was right, but not to be. Upper levels aren't very conducive atm, but that might change with another system late next week.

[johnno]

2 -3 days away and the models are still struggling with this one something shocking if anything today they are less inline compare to yesterday, GFS and EC move the low through southern NSW and Northern Vic now (More north compare to yesterday) Navgem, JMA and ACCESS move one shortwave through then high ridges in and cuts off the low over Southern SA before slowly progressing east, UK and CMC move it as one system Friday and Saturday through the guts of Victoria (more southerly track than GFS and EC) I can never remember models still struggling and diverging so much 48-72 hours out from an event like this