Victoria: Low Pressure System Jan 28th to 31st January 2012

[BERVY]

Do our experts have anything to say about the low coming down from the north into Victoria this weekend? WZ forecasting 20-40mm for Saturday where I am (Albury/Wodonga). Fully expect that to change to 10-20, 5-10, <5 ... as per usual.

[Gordon]

No expert opinion from me unfortunately, but the models are certainly toying with a decent rain event during this period. In 2010 & 2011 I would gave been confident of a good fall for us from a setup like this, yet so far in 2012 a few promising systems haven't really delivered so I'll watch and wait with this one.

[Jake Smethurst]

It's too difficult to say at this stage whether or not there will be a good rain event for Victoria. Some of the models are toying with the idea of something good, however I stress only some of them are, with others showing the cut-off low drifting southeastwards away into the Tasman, perhaps only affecting far eastern Victoria. Some of the more promising models are showing the trough not entering western VIctoria until late Sunday, allowing a good infeed of moisture, even perhaps the low drifting or developing closer to us. Too hard to say at the moment.

[crikey]

Hoping ACCESS is right with rain prediction for us in the west of the state ..first rain in the west and then east of the state.. the day after.
This prognosis hinges on the trough in NSW/QLD regressing westward somewhat in the coming days.
The forecast below is a combination of the top models and doesn't seem to want to have a 'bar' of this scenario .
However heard on weather on TV tonight. Jane Bunn l think and she is talking trough moving westward and rain for us next sunday
Either way the east of the state would get the rain in either scenario from what l can tell.?
I would think WZ's prognosis of 40mm for the east and Wodonga could be quite possible
Ireckon the below scenario will change in the coming days to include the west.. I am hoping !!

[Jake Smethurst]

This mornings model runs are really not much different compared to last night, they continue to diverge. All models show a relatively unstable day across some parts of Victoria on Saturday, more-so the north and west, however the Sunday is still a hard one to diagnose. GFS and NOGAPS continue to shift the cut-off system over New South Wales southeast and into the Tasman, only perhaps causing rainfall for eastern Victoria, whilst the rest of the state see's a trough system move through with not much precipitation. CMC looks a little better, still not directly showing a cut-off moving over the state, but does have a low pressure system forming south of Tasmania, allowing moisture from the north to be brought over Victoria which is then pushed into the trough which moves across later Sunday, a better scenario than GFS and NOGAPS. ECMWF and UKMET have a similar scenario to CMC, a deepening low to the south of Tasmania, trough moving across Victoria from the west later in the day with good levels of moisture through the state. And then there is the real outlier at the moment, ACCESSG, which shows very good rainfall developing from the northwest later Saturday and particularly through most areas on Sunday - this model also has a trough moving into the west later Sunday with high moisture levels across the state and a deepening low to the south of Tasmania. So still up in the air for Sunday, but for Saturday, it looks unstable to say the least, mainly for the north and west at this stage.

[93ben]

Will that rain from Queensland ever get to us? It's been dry & hot here for such a long time. I'm just hoping for a storm to occur this weekend though that looks unlikely for Melbourne atm by looking at the models on http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast? ... ache=93843" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Harley34]

4 day Bom Synoptic Forecast has a deepening low and associated front and trough pushing up from the south Sunday afternoon.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The isobars look quite tight. West Tassie will cop it if it pulls off. Could see gusts in excess of 80km/h in Southern Areas if this low can push furthur N.

Looks good for 20mm + for C areas. Should see temperatures drop off quite significantly.

[Gordon]

BOM are a bit more excited for our area on Sunday, with this morning's forecast of 'a shower or two' upgrading to 'rain developing' in this afternoon's edition.

[BERVY]

Oh here we go. WZ has downgraded the forecast here for 5-10 for Sat and 10-20 for Sun. It’ll be <5 for both days before you know it.

[Meso]

Last few GFS runs for Saturday have me somewhat interested. Some ok (only ok unfortunately, nothing that screams big storms) thunderstorm variables up in the NW of the state, along with a NW flow, have my severely storm deprived self contemplating a trip up that way. I HATE big trips on marginal days though (just end up cursing myself the whole time), but it is a Saturday and I can just relax all day Sunday if it doesn't turn out.

[crikey]

WATL wind forecast .. ( EC )
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
is forecasting a severe weather event for Victoria and Tasmania next Monday.. 30th Jan 2012
That scenario would favour North east VIC BERVY., for good rain totals
Should be lots of storms too MESO and wind if that scenario comes off.
Too far away to be accurate but good chance that is a signal for something severe on the way?

and a cyclone landfall near Port headland if the geog is correct? on the west WA coast on the same day. ~ Next Monday..

[Rivergirl]

Thats the day I'm taking a young friend to the beach with her new 3 week baby to dip her toes in the water

[Meso]

Should be lots of storms too MESO and wind if that scenario comes off.
Too far away to be accurate but good chance that is a signal for something severe on the way?

Nah, cant get too excited mate. 30th is basically this wknds system, can't see it being a different one. So, I think you're basically analyzing this wknds system there.

[droughtbreaker]

OCF is sticking with widespread 10-20mm falls, at least for central, I haven't looked at other areas.

EC seems to be right on to it and not budging basically. GFS is still a bit all over the place and obviously some of the lesser models are not in agreement. EC and OCF are usually the best indicators though.

[Jake Smethurst]

EC, ACCESS and UK all look like having some sort of good event with rain areas and thunderstorms, some even spinning up a low close to us or south of Tasmania, whereas GFS pushes the low east into the Tasman with not much influence on VIctoria's weather apart from the original cold front and trough. There is still high divergence so we shall wait and see models tonight.

[Rhino]

Models still moving things round a little still, GFS does'nt want a part of it except east vic, and BOM forecasting heavy falls now mostly central/eastern areas so will see. ACCESS looks great if it come off but really any rains good at this time of the year. Locally would expect 10-20mm here but if ACCESS did come off could be 40-50mm but will take a better look tommorow at the models.

Rhino.

[crikey]

Very excited about the potential that ACCESS is portraying for this event.
ACCESS is counting on
-the strong mid level low in NSW atm to traverse somewhat westward and then traverse eastward over VIC
- a strong upper t upper 200mb trough in NSW to traverse a little westward and the shift eastward over VIC
the surface , mid and upper low to combine over Vic.. YEY!!
- a strong cold front coming through.
- tongue of low pressure protruding into and through Victoria ( cut off low l think its called)
- the moisture in NSW atm with dew points in the 18-20 deg C mark ,shifting west and then eastward over Victoria during the trough passing

Would be a very intense system if that scenario came of
Stepped through and Counted the 6 hr intervals for rainfall from ACCESS Interactive . Reckons 100m for our area.
The strong cold front approaching the moist warm air with the surface, mid and lower levels all lined up for trough of low pressure,would fire up the most amazing storms
Reckon if GFS comes to agree with ACCESS then stormcast would look absolutely amazing

WATL wind has toned the strength of the westerly belt but it still looks wild.

They are all ifs and buts.. the potential is there atm
Look forward in great expectation of what could be
Jane Bunn on WIN weather news is saying 20mm for us the possibility of A LOT MORE..!! Yey!!
We are in dyer need of rain here..
Going to hold off until this system passes before ordering delivery of water..

BOM synoptic for next Sunday night


Dew point forecast
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rivergirl]

Hope you get the rain you need crikey

[nafets]

BoM are liking this system for Victoria. ACCESS is indicating the front to move through the Melbourne metro through Monday morning with 20 - 50 mm. Is this the likely scenario?

[Anthony Violi]

Sorry i have been away, had the best holidays of all time!

Anyway, nothings changed, its just that everything is running behind by a month. But now its here, the floods will come for every state.

Inland trough will be hanging around for a few months, just oscillating really, being fed by the La nina. Indian ocean is very warm and will pound the interior like never before with relentless rain bearing tropical air. Its actually been good to have some decent weather cos its all about to finish.

This system looks set up for a good drenching, nothing extraordinary though GFS is getting excited. Could well be monthly averages taken care of through the Northern, central and Eastern Vic. But again, going on the recent events nothing major.

The one to watch for is Iggy, there is some extremely cold air floating around the globe atm as temps hit record lows, if the planets align and it meets up with some Iggy type moisture, well you know the drill becuase we saw it last year.

Should be an exciting few months coming up!