Vic: Long warm/hot spell, unsettled end - December 24-31 2016

[I_Love_Storms]

Thursday looks potentially huge. The variables are record breaking, just need it to fall into place. GfS possibly has a dry slot, that's the only thing preventing 50-100mm falls

[hillybilly]

Foggy night here but no more.

Looks like the ex-TC is going to pass from near Adelaide through western Vic tomorrow and rain may well miss Melbourne. Will be a big producer... geez be pretty frustrating to miss this rain by only a 100km or so which is the current prediction.

Today unstable, with GFS and ACCESS showing showers this arvo but EC not keen

Bit of a change in the progs. GFS and ACCESS still got good falls on the trough Thursday but EC lost interest. Hope ECs wrong..

[JasmineStorm]

Impacts on Vic are still not certain for tomorrow and Thursday but if you love weather, this set up today is a cracker. If GFS modelling comes true for today, Adelaide's may have quite a few flood issues later tonight. Here is how I see the 7.10am sat pic unfolding for today.

[StratoBendigo]

Yep, Radelaide is likely to get hit hard today. EC reckons 50mm+. I wonder if they'll be much left on Thursday when it's our turn?

If anything, too much rain could cause problems for unharvested crops around here.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like Adelaides system. Hope we at least get a storm or two on Thursday to give us something! There were never massive totals forecast here for this system, however I've always and still remain in the hope of a very last minute upgrade considering the moistire that is available. It'll hurt if we miss out because the moisture is at record levels and it'd be such a waste if we don't get either a lot of rain or at least one amazing storm

[I_Love_Storms]

Gfs keeps ramping up Thursday. Can't wait

[Harley34]

Gfs keeps ramping up Thursday. Can't wait

Can you specify?

[Harley34]

Wow...

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, North Central, Wimmera and parts of the East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:49 am Tuesday, 27 December 2016.
WEATHER SITUATION:
A deep low pressure system over South Australia will move southeastwards and is expected near Adelaide overnight then near western Bass Strait on Wednesday.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected to develop across Mallee, Wimmera and Southwest districts early Wednesday morning then extend eastwards during the day, reaching Northern Country, North Central and Central districts later in the morning and Alpine areas of the Northeast and Gippsland by the afternoon. Wind gusts may also reach 120 km/h in elevated areas.
Winds are expected to ease from the west during the afternoon, easing over Alpine areas overnight into Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Mallee, Wimmera and Southwest districts during Wednesday morning. Rainfall is expected to start around midnight with heaviest falls between about 3am and 9am. Rainfall totals of 50mm are possible in this 6 hour period. Rainfall should ease by the afternoon however thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon.
Locations which may be affected by damaging winds include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.
Locations which may be affected by heavy rain include Mildura, Horsham and Warrnambool.

[Harley34]

With that Victorian weather warning from the Bureau, it only has Melbourne for damaging wind. I think that heavy rainfall warning is a chance for Melbourne, but it would be for later on.

Locally, everything seems mild, damp and relaxed. It's a great weather system approaching us and it looks to really ramp up soon. The synoptics developing, the satellite images appealing and I really wonder what's going to happen Thursday afternoon. I have noticed some members are anticipating big storms on Thursday (me too) for Central areas and I hope it all happens, it's been too long and we are overdue.

Fingers crossed the conditions and models hold for Thursday and the other parts of the event Nice end to 2016

[Wilko]

Not getting too exited just yet
Matter of watching Satellite

[stevco123]

Ask me on Saturday... too hard to predict now

[Harley34]

Bureau's 4 day is out and it looks solid. Tomorrow looks windy, as the low squeezes in to a corner near Gambier to provide with gusts and gales. Thursday looks dynamic with the trough and front approaching with a clear infeed from the inland.

I'm pretty positive to say Thunderstorms should occur sometime around Thursday and that's not to dismiss the possibility of today, tomorrow and Friday, but Thursday stands out the most.

I am interested to know what type of storms we could possibly experience and maybe someone with more knowledge could supply me with the answer.

[I_Love_Storms]

Gfs keeps ramping up Thursday. Can't wait

Can you specify?

Check the variables on this out. Record precipitate water values, low lifted index, relatively high CAPE, high temps and dew points, and a trigger from the trough. Things look pretty good for all types of storms, Id say heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging/destructive wind main threats, outside chance of tornadoes. Agree today tomorrow look okay as well but the conditions on Thursday much much more unstable and likely to produce severe storms


http://soundings.bsch.com.au/skew-t.htm ... c&type=aus

[occluded]

Check the variables on this out.

Indeed. Been watching Thursday with interest for a few days now - GFS 'Storm Probabilities' has been ramping up over the last few runs - 18Z for 7pm Thursday looks

Surely got to get something somewhere but at the same time don't want to jinx it.

http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc

[I_Love_Storms]

If GFS plays out there will be damage and destruction. It won't be just the run of the mill storms, it'll be some of the biggest ones we have had in years

[Skywalker]

Well I'm predicting the western suburbs will get absolutely smashed. Reason being I won't be there!

[I_Love_Storms]

Well I'm predicting the western suburbs will get absolutely smashed. Reason being I won't be there!

Latest Gfs has pockets of 50mm for western burbs next few days

[Sean]

I have as much faith in the charts and models as an atheist has in the Bible/Koran.

Chartheist? Modeltic?

It's humid tho, which I'm loving.

[hillybilly]

Geez it's humid out there. Rained almost all day here but only 0.4mm. Real waste of a tropical infeed with minimal upslide and no clear air

Tropical low is soon to cross into the bight and will pass near Mt Gambier tomorrow. Heavy rain and intense winds out west, but rain looks like mainly missing central areas going by the latest runs.

Thursday still looks the best day for us in central and eastern areas with the trough. Plenty of moisture, instability and a trigger on the trough. We should miss a decent fall.

Btw Melbourne missed the December precipitable water record by just 1.6mm or about 3% this morning. Goes to show this is a rarely seen humid airmass for Victoria.

EDIT> EC getting wierd. Has 20 to 30mm for Geelong to Melbourne on Thursday but just 4mm here next few days. Down from 50mm or so a couple of days back. ACCESS and GFS still keen and spread falls around better. Up to 1mm here now, with some briefly heavier rain.

[Dane]

Spits and spots on and off all day here for a total of just 0.2mm's. Very humid all of Melbourne has DP's between 20 and 22
at the moment.
Looks like we will miss out on the best falls but there may be some big totals in the west over the next few days.
Thinking like no more than 10mm's for me up to Saturday morning.