There is certainly a monsoon trough in the OZ neighbourhood on Dec 23rd according to CMC. A fascinating few days on the models to come and what will be the flow on affect on the Victorian Chrissy period.
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Just thought I'd pop this in here. It's been a looooonnnnngggg time since I've seen the models prog something like this in Victoria. Will most definitely change as we get closer, however it's good to see the instability starting to return for the upcoming storm season!
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017091406z.fcst-201709221600z.li.vic.null.0.png (60.43 KiB) Viewed 9481 times
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Certainly nothing in the models to get excited about at this point for Victoria. Most have mainly stable conditions persisting throughout the outlook period, varied by a couple of weak fronts. Maybe, just maybe something towards the end of the model runs coming through.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
"The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, making the chance of a La Niña forming in late 2017 at least 50%; around double the normal likelihood. While this means the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH, rainfall outlooks remain neutral due to competing climate drivers."
^^ Just to add onto your post above Hunter, NOAA in the US have officially declared a La Nina event. BoM tend to have stricter thresholds but shouldn't be too long before they agree.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.