Vic: Epic low pressure sequence over SE AUS - Sept 28 - Oct 4 2016

[hillybilly]

Unstable out there today between the departing cloud band and the approaching low. Nice little storm just west of here ATM. Thinking a bit hit and miss today, but more in the northwest and northeast.

SA is really coping it. Some sites closing in on 100mm now.

This system is tracking pretty much as expected in the progs. The second part lines us up on Sunday so will be very different.

[stevco123]

I heard somewhere that the reason why all of South AUstralia lost power was because the wind farms had to be switched off due to the very high winds.

In my view, goes to show green (and renewable) energy is unreliable and problematic. Give me as much coal powered stations as needed to keep life ticking over. (Sorry to any greenies on here who are cursing me right now)

[Geoff]

Radar shows that red cell over you stevco123, waiting for your report.....

[stevco123]

Radar shows that red cell over you stevco123, waiting for your report.....

Ok...here we go... It came quick, and it went quick. Lost some of its intensity to my north.

A few wind gusts in it, BUT to compare rainwise... it dumped 0.8mm on me in 2 minutes. It took 4 hours to get that last night.

Edit>> I seriously have a curse on me. That cell died over me and then re-intensified once it passed me

[I_Love_Storms]

80mm already near Mount Lofty...BOM Is going for up to another 80mm in next 24 hours!

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/warning.jsp?id=IDS20364

[Skywalker]

Looks like that little cell is now on it's way to Cowes. Of course I'm not down there yet.

Oh well, we have to get excited over something.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016 ... r-blackout

not sure if the photo showing the power lines bent in half has anything to do with loss of power.
swinging like skipping ropes is my tip..

[stevco123]

Currently listening to the energy minister on 3aw and he is pretty much conceding that they have got this wrong on wind farms and renewable energy for electricity and if Queensland can still have power during cyclones, why can't SA during a storm?

A proper backup is always needed. I suppose you can compare to WiFi and fixed internet connection.

BUT, and big but, he did say that this IS a very rare and unprecedented storm.

[hillybilly]

Just got the top of that band here. Quick 1.5mm. Pretty sure I heard a rumble, but it was really wind so can't be sure.

The wrap around on the low is starting to become visible on the Adelaide radar

[stevco123]

Just got the top of that band here. Quick 1.5mm. Pretty sure I heard a rumble, but it was really wind so can't be sure.

The wrap around on the low is starting to become visible on the Adelaide radar

What are your thoughts on this coming Sunday's event? I've been waiting for your detailed input

[Macedonian]

164mm MTD here at work in Macedon.
More at home.

[Claude Cat]

I heard somewhere that the reason why all of South AUstralia lost power was because the wind farms had to be switched off due to the very high winds.

In my view, goes to show green (and renewable) energy is unreliable and problematic. Give me as much coal powered stations as needed to keep life ticking over. (Sorry to any greenies on here who are cursing me right now)

It was nothing to do with the wind farms. They were producing 1000 Mwatts when the transmission lines got knocked over & the lighting strike on the power station. They would have had the same result if they were entirely coal fired.

[Didjman]

exactly 25mm to 9AM here in Kilmore so far. Lowest Baro 989.8 here early this morning.
Peter

[Hawker]

According to bom 10 day we should be getting 10-15 mls a day for 5 days except for maybe Saturday.

And yes I know, looking too far ahead, but Saturday the 8th is interesting,
for the first time it has some heat coming down.
Chris

[Rivergirl]

Happy birthday to me. I'm rather grateful we were in a rain shadow so Storm Robyn didn't impact us that much

[StratoBendigo]

According to bom 10 day we should be getting 10-15 mls a day for 5 days except for maybe Saturday.

And yes I know, looking too far ahead, but Saturday the 8th is interesting,
for the first time it has some heat coming down.
Chris

Ummm, yeah. Crazy thermal gradient thru WA on Access-G for that date. A very stormy and October ahead methinks, after a September to Remember.

[hillybilly]

For those wondering, this one is a record breaker. The pressure in Adelaide dipped to 978.3hPa this morning, which is below the previous all months record of 979.7 hPa on 1 June 1981. Is possible that there are earlier storms which are deeper (but don't have digital data etc). Most sites in SA have set September records by a substantial margin

What are your thoughts on this coming Sunday's event?

Looks substantial to me. Pressures are really low and we have very rapid development of a thundery rainband late arvo on Sunday following a warm day. Strikes me as a classic active spring system. It is then followed by a couple of strong fronts in an intense westerly airstream. I'm tending to think 50-100mm here in FC.

BTW just to add to all the wierdness, progs are showing it could get hot in a week with a big bulge of hot air developing to our west

[Skywalker]

The warmth wouldn't surprise me one bit as it always seems to heat up for my son's birthday (October 10). I certainly hope that's the case anyway as we have an outdoors party planned for him.

Have a feeling we might see some activity later this afternoon. Sun is currently out here.

[JasmineStorm]

-Great dividing range 25 to 55mm already. I'm seeing another 30mm by tomorrow morning. It's all running hard now.
-Campaspe river around Kyneton currently running a banker towards Lake Eppalock.
-western flank of Robyn now slamming Adelaide. Her main eye averaging 3km/h, western flank in the mid 80s km/h. 2nd core now developing 500 km/h SSW and has an eye running at an average of 2km/h with a southern flank in the 70s km/h.

Ohh...She is a complex little devil

My position unchanged. north of the divide in major trouble if 'batman' arrives Sunday night with an uppercut KAPOW

[Macedonian]

So what is the outlook for today guys? Is the central area clear of strong wind? Or is it still to come?