VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

[Blackie]

Melb city and surrounds in the sweet spot for these stream showers and they're heavy.

[Geoff]

Anyone with a scientific (or even logical) explanation as to why that train of rain is where it is, and not elsewhere, please enlighten me. Perhaps someone's left a big pan of water boiling on the stove behind Mt Cowley?

[stevco123]

I heard that the government was going to commence cloud seeding this week to make it rain. And hand on heart this is exactly what I heard on the radio a couple days ago

[Wilko]

Quite a heavy shower here in Highett
This may add up a bit

[StratoBendigo]

Anyone with a scientific (or even logical) explanation as to why that train of rain is where it is, and not elsewhere, please enlighten me. Perhaps someone's left a big pan of water boiling on the stove behind Mt Cowley?

Looks like air for the ocean and air from inland is converging along the Otway ridge and uplifting to form this line of cloud. The wind direction from the SW is perfect.

[tonycynic]

Looks like the radar return from a bushfire.

[stevco123]

22mm in Geelong and almost 10mm in the CBD. Insane, considering it took it hours the other the day to get to that amount

[Vic]

This rain band has an impressive rain rate for what the radar is showing. raining so much that water from the alley way is beginning to flow into my backyard

[Geoff]

Looks like air from the ocean and air from inland is converging along the Otway ridge and uplifting to form this line of cloud. The wind direction from the SW is perfect.

That would make sense Strato if there was air coming from inland to converge with, but there doesn't seem to be any. We're in a general S/W flow all over the area as far as I can tell (had a look at Nullschool windflow animation). Perhaps upper winds are from inland?

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like air from the ocean and air from inland is converging along the Otway ridge and uplifting to form this line of cloud. The wind direction from the SW is perfect.

That would make sense Strato if there was air coming from inland to converge with, but there doesn't seem to be any. We're in a general S/W flow all over the area as far as I can tell (had a look at Nullschool windflow animation). Perhaps upper winds are from inland?

Perhaps a localized anabatic wind is acting as a trigger? This often happens in Spring and Summer. Anyway, impressive to watch on radar.

[Dane]

Got in a narrow line of showers like that a few years ago.
I was right in the sweet spot that day with about 30mm's falling in quick time,
surrounding suburbs had little or no rain.
Today as has been the case most of this month have not been in the sweet spot.
No rain here today at all so far.

[stevco123]

Got in a narrow line of showers like that a few years ago.
I was right in the sweet spot that day with about 30mm's falling in quick time,
surrounding suburbs had little or no rain.
Today as has been the case most of this month have not been in the sweet spot.
No rain here today at all so far.

Yes...highly frustrating. Not complaining as we have had good rains, it's just annoying to watch as time after time it constantly misses this area

[Sean]

Got caught in that narrow band while in the city/ Richmond area this afternoon. Made driving more of a nightmare than usual on Hoddle st

[Skywalker]

Very weird situation with that stream this afternoon. We were almost right in the middle of it at work with heavy showers on & off most of the afternoon, yet heading west 1km up the road it was dry. Didn't get a single drop at home either.

[Wilko]

A surprise this afternoon with 7mm taking the last 24hours to a further 12mm
Will add the total event tomorrow
Interestingly I think this is going to continue and we could have more serious flooding as its only early spring
I'm by no means an expert but the IOD going back into decline with the SOI also going back into positive we have a very volatile situation on our hands
Oh yeah the bay is really warming up now
Next week EC has cutoff low and AccessG is indicating same Thou further east
GFS puts the low in Tasman

[Geoff]

AccessG next Tuesday, can't get it much more over us than this.....

[hillybilly]

Bit slow on the reports (a cold has slowed me down...).

7.4mm in the gauge this morning. Pushes us to just shy of 55mm for the event. Our MTD is ~105mm so a pretty good chance for another above average month (our average is near 140mm, with September the wettest month of the year here).

Anyone with a scientific (or even logical) explanation as to why that train of rain is where it is, and not elsewhere, please enlighten me.

Was really unusual. The wind obs had a W'ly flow to the north of the band and SW'ly flow to the south. It was being triggered by an area of low level convergence which appeared not to be related to surface features. Almost always the Otways in SW'ly flow cause divergence splitting the flow, so a really unusual set up. I struggle to think of a band like that one in the years I've been watching the weather.

Foggy in FC this morning with the cloud based near 450m but looks like a fine one (or nearly so).