12th - 13th of May (low level snow) :D

[johnno]

The models are far too jumpy at the moment ACCESS G does not want a bar of it while EC is all over it and GFS has now come on board too, I have kept an eye on the models last few months and it is actually ACCESS G that is picking up systems ahead of EC and GFS more often than not it tends to be more accurate these days (every system varies but that is the general trend now a days)

The models are very erratic at the moment and what EC and GFS have had previous runs and what they decide to show this morning doesn't gel with me, personally I need these models to show this same scenario for a few more runs yet (still have it on Sunday as the system comes through mid week) before I get excited but at this stage I give the EC scenario of 30% happening for us. There are too many things going against us for eg will the low develop at all? or stay as a trough like previous runs and if it does develop will it move towards NSW or us? Will the high ridge underneath it and keep the system in SA in a much weaker form? Too many factors against us but time will tell, next run of the models crucial especially GFS and EC this afternoon and even more crucial they still have this scenario by Sunday morning.

[johnno]

Off the record ACCESS G picked up this cold out break for SE OZ ahead of the other models

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah looks very exciting. It will smash east Central (with flooding) if it comes off to the max possible as it is a massive follow up for some areas following this event that produced 50-100mm.

As an example, Rowville had around 50mm in last event. EC has 120mm falling in 48 hours on Thurs-Fri

[Skywalker]

Back here in the western suburban boredom zone after two cold & wet days up at Kilmore moving my parents. Heavy drizzle, showers fell pretty much most of the day yesterday making the move a little more difficult. This wet weather seems to be a magnet every time one of us moves house.

Beautiful weekend coming up before the next system approaches.

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS has expectedly downgraded a bit in the latest run. Still looks like we will get something decent for half the state (20-100mm?). Let's see what EC dishes up

[droughtbreaker]

Pleasant surprise to see 6.7mm in the gauge this morning. All it took was for the flow to go a bit more southerly. It just serves to remind us how much of an influence on southern VIC rainfall and general climate that the bay has. 43mm month to date now.


GFS still looking very good, classic setup for this time of year when the Indian Ocean is warm. Still around 20-40mm for the ranges and then out in fairy land (7-14 day period) GFS has another 15-20mm widespread across most of VIC which at least indicates that the NW moisture feed is set to hang around for some time. Also encouraging signs that the rainfall seems to be spreading across the country in the progs and not just confined to the SE and SW corners.

Of course this is all still subject to change, models will still flip around and we don't know exactly where the best of the rain will end up falling (though most likely on the ranges) but I am pleased to see models start to tend towards a proper LWT sort of scenario rather than the weak orphan cut off low scenario that was showing before. It's worth noting that ACCESS-G also seems to be favouring the LWT scenario more (still waiting for updated run).

One thing to note with ACCESS-G (which I'm sure most people already know anyway), is that the rainfall progs are very rough compared with the more detailed ACCESS-R model which only goes out 3 days on the Weatherzone site (I'm not sure if you can pay and get access to more days). The latter model takes topography into account more. Often this model will show significantly more or less rain with respect to location than the broadscale model runs as we get closer to systems coming through.

[I_Love_Storms]

Lol EC has gone from 120mm to nothing!!

[hillybilly]

This system just keeps on giving. 4mm more of drizzle and fog pushing us to 105mm. Melbourne dams went up in the latest week, apparently the first time for the year and the first autumn rise in a couple of years

Just watching the progs wiggle. Too hard to call. Time for a new thread. Think I'll try to make sense of the patterns on the 12Z runs, as they might settle down by then

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

There was still snow on Mt Donna Buang this morning, there were patches of snow at the end of toboggan run and little chunks of snow on the side of the road and the carpark below the summit, there wasn't any on top of the summit, cause the sun was directly hitting the ground, here are some pics .

Patchy snow at bottom of Toboggan run
http://oi62.tinypic.com/2nhfio9.jpg

A little snow kitty i found
http://oi61.tinypic.com/f2ndq9.jpg

and the snowman i tried to make with bare hands it was kinda hard kinda cold, i love snow tho xD
http://oi60.tinypic.com/2e58jrn.jpg

[Rivergirl]

Nice pics BringOnTheCoolChange