Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
Locked
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5050
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by hillybilly »

Just on 20mm here. Very happy with that for starters :P All models keeps showers and storms through the night, then a weak low pass through Bass Strait in the morning clearing things. Could be plenty more to come... Both ACCESS and GFS have the heavier most widespread rain overnight. Should see a decent second burst in the morning near the wind change.

Garden looks much happier.

Just got the best crack bang of the day ;)
J
James
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by James »

yeah that was the best cracking thunder explosion of the day....wasnt expecting that one!
R
Rhino
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1227
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 11:37 am
Location: Carisbrook-Near Maryborough

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Rhino »

15mm here on the auto gauge, was a good heavy burst but nothing to cause problems and some nice cg's, but won't get much more here. Looks good in central parts. Enjoy everyone... :D :D

Rhino. :) :)
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Dane »

18mm's here so far - so not too bad.
I see that Cardinia reservoir has done all right with 59mm's and Springvale West - 39mm's
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2909
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Gordon »

Over 30 mm here so far and temps in the teens since mid afternoon. Hard to believe that less than a week ago, most models and forecasts picked today & tomorrow as hot and dry here. A reminder of the fallibility of forecasts!

(Something has to be done about Met-eye though, it's pathetic. As late as yesterday it was giving us 2-6 mm today!)
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5050
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by hillybilly »

25 to 30mm across Ferny Creek, and still coming down nicely. Tanks are full and we are now half way to the monthly average after a month of almost zilch ;) Thinking we could well see about 50mm by am tomorrow.

Developing again out west with some cells in the radar hole, so more to come.

Places just to our South are showing spot falls ranging from 30 to 60mm :o
I
I_Love_Storms
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2812
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:01 pm
Location: Hawthorn

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Gfs has another 50-75mm for parts of central. Based on this alone there should be a flood watch issued
User avatar
Supercellimpact
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1238
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 8:39 pm
Location: Bendigo

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Supercellimpact »

1.2mm here, disappointing, got to see a few CG and CC earlier today. Raining lighting out there now.
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2946
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by stevco123 »

30mm out toa way. Mostly failing in a halh hour period. Traffic lights still out and a lot of water laying around the police paddocks/ stud road / basketball stadium.

I haven't seen it like this since 2011. The radar had the same characteristics as well with a dark yellow blob hanging around for an hour. Water was coming out of the drains instead of going in.

Dandenong creek kad swelled up nicely too.

I'll try to upload pic of wall cloud tomorrow morning.
Last edited by stevco123 on Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3148
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Cats and dogs
Puppy's and kittens here.mprobaly for tha last 20 minutes.
Got a wedding today. Bet she isn't feeling excited.. (Marque)
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5050
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by hillybilly »

Cats and dogs, Puppy's and kittens here
Same here. Even a couple of rumbles and fog to add to the atmospherics :D

Just passed 35mm for the event. If the train of showers keeps up over us we'll crack 50mm by 9am... though it is edging south and might slip under us. Spots just south of here must be approaching 100mm - few spots picked up 10-20 with those arvo storms yesterday and then they got the full width of the storm band early evening.

Progs just have humid warm conditions going for days beyond today... though differ on how widespread the storms will be. GFS has lots and EC not much which is pretty typical in these set ups ;)
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3148
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Heavy rain warning out now.

57mm Mount Buller
M
Macedonian
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2341
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Macedonian »

What wonderful widespread rain totals.
How lucky are we to get this in mid February!
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
I
I_Love_Storms
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2812
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:01 pm
Location: Hawthorn

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by I_Love_Storms »

What a ripping event. Hope to get another 30mmhere that would take us up to about 80mm!!!
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2946
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by stevco123 »

42mm so far. Very pleased.

Managed to upload a short clip to youtube of that roll cloud moving in before dumping that rain yesterday.

I'll try to upload the pic soon too.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;





.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Dane »

Just emptied 26.2mm's out of the gauge, for the 24 hours to 9am.
Heaviest daily fall since 16-11-14 when I got 31.5mm's.
Just up the road from me Narre Warren had 42mm's.
Heaviest fall I could see in the Metro area was 81mm's at Cardinia Reservoir.
Rain is clearing now judging by the radar, doesn't look like we will get much more.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60179.htm
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2946
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by stevco123 »

Dane » Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:22 am wrote:
Dane wrote:Just emptied 26.2mm's out of the gauge, for the 24 hours to 9am.
Heaviest daily fall since 16-11-14 when I got 31.5mm's.
Just up the road from me Narre Warren had 42mm's.
Heaviest fall I could see in the Metro area was 81mm's at Cardinia Reservoir.
Rain is clearing now judging by the radar, doesn't look like we will get much more.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60179.htm
BoM should have stuck with their original forecast of showers clearing by afternoon. Because looks like that's exactly what it's doing.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
G
Geoff
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2538
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:46 pm
Location: Olinda VIC (470m ASL)

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Geoff »

48mm here, could've been a lot more if we were under one of those big storms yesterday afternoon, but nonetheless very happy and relieved with this event.
Hopefully an early end to the bushfire season up here with seemingly more rain in the outlook, GFS especially keen for more. :D
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2909
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Post by Gordon »

Macedonian » Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:58 am wrote:
Macedonian wrote:What wonderful widespread rain totals.
How lucky are we to get this in mid February!
Too right Macedonian, this lot has arrived just in time to keep us green. 37 mm to 9 am here so along with the lack of sustained heat, this is turning out to be a good summer for reduced fire risk & full tanks! Great to see the decent rain reasonably widespread too.
Locked