Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

[Jake Smethurst]

These storms affecting southwest Victoria are quite remarkable. I can only recall one other time where they have developed specifically over southwest parts near our house before growing rapidly and only slowly moving East to southeast.

So far today, the first line of storms developed directly over is, we saw a short burst of heavy rainfall and there was plenty of cloud to ground lightning visible as the storms moved away to the east.

A second line then formed to our west-northwest and proceeded towards us before shifting due east and just going north of us. Again we saw a heavy burst of rain from the far southern edge, and plenty of lightning. That line appeared to have stalled, and it has been back building directly to our North, stretching from our northeast to northwest. We've been seeing continuous lightning, thunder and every now and again heavy bursts of rain. It's pretty hard to tell what it's doing movement wise, just looks to be sitting there and dumping large amounts of rain to areas like Camperdown, Colac, Terang and Mortlake.

It appears to be back building towards the third line which is stretching from northern Victoria all the way into the southwest, so hopefully the third time is the charm and we get hit

But in saying that, I would only have to drive 10km North of here and I'd be under heavy rain and storms. Shame I don't have a car at this second. :/

Reports of hail near Ballarat, and plenty of fires started from lightning down this way.

It's certainly been interesting to watch all this development. Very different! And it will probably continue well into the evening and overnight. Hopefully you guys in Melbourne get action, knowing I am at home out of Melbourne tonight, you should!

[Skywalker]

The tail end of that stuff over the bay just clipped us here, think I counted a dozen drops. I'm not complaining as it's given me a clear slot to ride home in.

Plenty of action out west, one right over the top of Ballan by the looks of it.

[wolfcat]

Looks like the BOM hit the bottle this arvo and just starting drawing all over the map...

[Skywalker]

Probably explains their dodgy forecasting lately.

[Wilko]

That's funny
Lots of lightning and thunder here in Moorabbin just on the edge of it that looks very unstable could develop anywhere
Of gotta say the sky looks very weird almost tornado like

[Wilko]

Lightning to our north although the radar is showing that only coming in from the west
Next radar return will show Some new development over Moorabbin

[Dane]

Some rumbles from those storm to my west.
They don't look to strong on radar and, but there are more storms further west.
Interesting night coming up

[I_Love_Storms]

Exciting times ahead the next 12-18 hours....radar looks great, should be a big night

[Geoff]

Seville is under water!!!
Interesting drive home through the Yarra Valley, encountered a big thunderstorm approaching Woori Yallock and by the time I got to Seville the whole town seemed to be under 6 inches of water, torrents of brown rivers pouring into the streets from all directions. Lots of cars pulled off the road, I could barely see where I was going the rain was so torrential. Got back to Olinda and it was bone dry with dust behind my van!
Just getting some rumbles here now with a light shower, but the radar does look encouraging.

[James]

very volatile out there indeed!, saw some very close bolts come out of nowhere, from a storm that did the same...

wind is still very warm, thunder rumbling over the hills as i type

[tre75]

Looks like the 2nd round is mostly missing Geelong, couple of rumbles, but you can see the red core is heading west through Meredith which basically means its on-track to hit Melbourne.

[stevco123]

Looks like the 2nd round is mostly missing Geelong, couple of rumbles, but you can see the red core is heading west through Meridith which basically means its on-track to hit Melbourne.

hhmmm. Unless it develops further, it willl just scrape the northwest suburbs of melbourne.

Perhaps the BoM forecast will be right this time

[mick]

Some nice flangs over the bay and around southland. Not much rain chelt to seaford, frankston got a good dose.

Second wave, a lot of outflow from it, so much its looking to collapse before it crosses the bay, but very warm still, so fingers crossed.

[hillybilly]

Radar looks great IMHO and GFS and ACCESS bring substantial falls across central areas next 12-24 hours. Can't see this one not delivering for us Across the models - seeing about 30mm in Ferny Creek by morning

Picked up the edge of a couple of cells - bout 4mm back home. 6mm 2km's to our east at the AWS. Wettest day in about a month Couple of lightning strikes started fires in Ferny Creek, but all safe now.

Geoff the storm over the middle Yarra Valley didn't budge for over an hour. An amateur gauge showed 21mm before it went off line. Wouldn't surprise if there are pockets of 50mm+ around that spot. Slow moving and intense dumpers.

[mick]

latest image just came in,

[Wilko]

Here it comes
There could be some surprising totals If it Holds together..IF..

[Wilko]

No worries it's holding alright
Getting really dark here
Could be intensifying yippee
Hopefully get 5 to 10 from this round

[Sean]

Nothing spectacular with that first wave. Lightning check, rain check, thrill nay.

I'd say about 5mm. Nothing substantial. So, so dry atm.

[Timster]

INSANE....

50mm of rain between 5 and 6 pm, water everywhere, dam has come up at least a foot,
Was driving back from Ballarat to Scarsdale right in the thick of it.... Never seen anything like it.

[nafets]

Nice CG around docklands way, some good rumbles too however looks like the rain is ceasing on the radar as it approaches as always.