2-3 January - Hot

[droughtbreaker]

That's interesting HB, definitely shows that there is moisture around, and not just shallow surface moisture, quite deep, especially once the trough arrives.

Probably not the best thing for SA to be getting lightning strikes from localised cells but if it can broaden out to an area of thundery rain as it enters VIC (or soon after) it will substantially ease the situation in western VIC.

I don't remember the last time we had a decent wet thundery change in summer on a hot N wind day. All I know is it used to be common before we started to go generally dry, i.e. (pre 2001). Still nothing set in stone but it's at least looking promising.

[Didjman]

Cant see any convection yet toward the Otways - maybe too hazy. The convergence line is running along the coast from Warnambool to Apollo Bay.
Peter

[Gordon]

hillybilly » Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:56 am[/url]"]

Sitting on 31C here and has only risen 3C in 3 & 1/2 hours.

BTW that storm band has exploded and is now nearly 700km north-south. Better drop some rain otherwise SA is in trouble.....

[/quote]

Surely those SA storms must be dropping real rain with such strong radar returns? Even a couple of patches of black?

Edit: A storm just east of Hamilton has sprung out of nowhere; and bingo:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in the South West, Wimmera and parts of the Central, Mallee, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.

Issued at 1:28 pm Saturday, 3 January 2015.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Stawell, Hamilton, Ballarat, Maryborough and Castlemaine.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

hmm interesting, yesterday, it reached 25c max, right now it's sitting at 30c outside. 31.5c at the Ferny Creek weather station, so not there's not a big difference in temps like yesterday.

[Gordon]

Okay, thanks hillybilly, useful to know.

At least our side of the border looks more promising for the real stuff - radar exploding! Btw I noticed latest GFS upgraded us (and a large band through western Vic) to 10 mm plus in the 24 hrs to 9.30 am tomorrow, so maybe it's on to something...

[adon]

Convection shooting up out to the west now. Looks to be about warracknabeal from where is am. So that will be heading for Ballarat. Keep an eye out.

Edit: just noticed convection to the east of me too. Only just popped so bendigo heads up

[Didjman]

Can make out distant convection through the haze in the direction of Avalon.
Peter

[Gordon]

Horsham just had 7 mm in 30 minutes; temp went from 40 C to 19 C in under an hour. This is incredible weather!

[mad*moo73]

So does this mean the change will be sooner than its forecast 7-8pm arrival? Or is it just going to be some storms to add to the heat?

[Wilko]

This link shows the rapid development..yeah baby
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Wilko]

Just the magic 40 here in Moorabin
41 looks about right

[wolfcat]

And 40.1 at my place now.

Waiting to time my drive down to the beach for that massive line of storms.

With fingers really really really crossed that they don't cause more trouble for the CFA than they already have.

[Jake Smethurst]

Posted this in the other thread accidentally earlier.

Thinking the thunderstorm risk today is pretty high for particularly western and central districts. Could see some severe organised action as well in my opinion along the trough, which will not bode well for fire conditions considering the winds that could be associated with them. Hopefully there will be some moisture in the storms but I'd say a mix of wet and dry today. Pretty confident of storms developing, already in South Australia.

Since I made that post pretty much has gone to plan. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over Western parts and spreading into Victoria from South australia, particularly near the trough.

It's reached 40 degrees here in brighton also, damn hot. I can feel the humidity a bit too, not exactly the driest of air at the moment, but that will only increase as the trough nears.

And change should still get to Melbourne area around 6ish.

[adon]

Up to 42 again now but today is heaps worse than yesterday with this bloody wind. Anyhoo since I posted about the convection, it has not really exploded in this area but is continuing to bubble away. Have not got a clear view much to the west or NW not but radar seems to show something lining us up. Hoping it's just rain by the time it gets here.

[wolfcat]

We really don't need this amount of lightning, with this heat and wind today...

[Gordon]

Sky starting to turn black out to our west. Hoping rain beats lightning...

[Jake Smethurst]

My parents are right under that band and just had a heavy burst of rain! Dad said it was the heaviest burst they've experienced in years. 15mm in just 10 mins! Quite intense rainfall rates. The whole garage is under water apparently. Also mentioned plenty of CG's in the band.

Lightning is a great concern for CFA and other authorities, but the erratic winds with this band I'd be more concerned about, particularly if they're gusting!

[droughtbreaker]

Thickening cloud creeping in from the west with the first stages of lower level convection just starting to appear. Temp steady around 34C/35C. Wind is still in the moderate to fresh range, there have been no major gusts as yet.

Band of storms starting to get nasty. Multicell structure with black cores (on radar) starting to pop up. Could be large hail and severe winds as it passes over. The line seems to be timed for about 5:30pm-6pm for central which is close to peak daytime heating in January. Hopefully the storms can broaden out into a more general rain band for central.

[mick]

Good luck to those camping at Airerys and on the coast. Rye could get good ole wet sleeping bags too.

Gusty here and settled on 40.1 for much of the arvo.

[stevco123]

Trying to think positive but i hope it doesn't break up like the last few fronts that came through.