Vic: Dec 21 to 23 - Rain and storms

[I_Love_Storms]

Looking like areas of patchy light rain and isolated showers will move in tonight (Friday) and linger tomorrow (Saturday), before increasing to areas of moderate rain overnight Saturday into Sunday, with a humid and wet day Sunday by the looks, possibility for some high falls if you get under a storm. Monday not looking like too much at this point but will keep an eye on the models.

Very far off, but I think it is very possible an ECL will develop in about a weeks time. There looks like a lot of instability off the coast of NSW forecast for this time, at least according to GFS. Often see this turn into big events around this time of year.

[Rivergirl]

Thanks for starting the thread ILS. Can't wait for some rain even if it is humid

[Geoff]

Hard to pinpoint where and when the rain will fall from the upcoming system, but it seems most areas will get at least 5mm, and some lucky ones could see 25mm. Then, it seems we could all be blessed with beautiful summer weather for the Christmas period - enjoy!!!

[Rivergirl]

Thanks Geoff Would be nice to get some rain too.

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah looks very average. Looking like potentially not one storm in December.

[dagget]

Fog up here almost like sitting in a cloud and 11 degrees, after the last couple of days seems freezing cold.

[droughtbreaker]

I'm surprised that it's suddenly gone so quiet in this thread given the likelihood of a thundery outbreak tomorrow ahead of and with the change, with a bit of rain to follow overnight. Some people on here desperate for storms so I thought a few might have got a bit excited.

Moist air flooded in by this morning with a very overcast day. This moisture infeed will hang around tomorrow but with warm temperatures as we go northerly ahead of the inland trough extending down. Given the setup I'd be quite surprised if we didn't see something decent, especially for the southern half of the state.

Models not showing all that much in terms of rainfall, but we need to remember that they tend to generalise with convectional rainfall and don't pick up on localised areas of higher precipitation. EC in particular does very poorly picking up rainfall from storms for smaller areas.

[Didjman]

Temp here 15.4/14.5. Humidity haze all day. Something has to give!
I also noticed this arvo, middle level cloud streaming nw-se, with a southerly wind at the surface. This mid level stream is still continuing from the tropics - as shown on the satloop.
Baro dropping sharply here with SW breeze.
Peter

[I_Love_Storms]

My view has changed from my last post, although not expecting high precipitation from storms today based on models. Good chance of late afternoon and evening storms today. A lot of the ingredients are there. Let's hope there is a bit of clear air.

[Gordon]

Certainly one of BOM's poorer forecasting efforts in recent times for our area. Three days of rain commencing Saturday that was forecast several times in succession has so far produced 0.5 mm here!

[Dane]

Had very light intermittant rain here for for the last five or six hours and its only produced 1mm.
Still overcast and the light rain is keeping temps around Melbourne in the low 20's.
Very humid with Dp's generally around 18 or 19c.
Satellite showing a few breaks of cloud out to the west.
If we get a break in the clouds later this afternoon the temp may get up into the high 20's and that will increase our chances of a storm. If it stays like this its fairly marginal for storms IMHO.

[James]

Wonder if we will ever get a storm this season here?

the humidity is something shocking, something has to come out of this!!?

[SC.]

23.4ºC here with DP at 19 Hum. 78%, Li should be -3.3 and Cape just over 700 just waiting for the next Sat pic....

[Dane]

I see some storms have just developed south of Geelong near Anglesea.

[Wilko]

Quite a nasty cell that one
Hopefully a sign of things to come tonight
Would love a good light show tonight
Geez it's humid
Something has to give

[Wilko]

The Doppler looks interesting
I'm not very good at reading this but may be some more action near Geelong

[Didjman]

Can see the bottom parts from here (rest obscured by foreground cloud).

That cell now approaching Cape Schank has black core
Peter

[Didjman]

the inflow looks like a beaver tail from here. Very elongated to the west.

Reported it to the BoM, who said the storm seemed to show "supercellular characteristics"
Peter

[Skywalker]

Looks like the tank will be put to use for the first time since last summer. We had some fake light stuff earlier this morning and that's about all, just enough to wet the ground.

Don't see us getting anything decent now for quite a while.

[I_Love_Storms]

It's going off now lots of towers and radar showing new cells