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VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15-17

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VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15-17

Post by aussiestormfreak »

G'day everyone! :)

Here's a thread for the next event in store for us Victorians...

A cold front looks set to rip across Victoria late-tomorrow and into Thursday, bringing in a surge of yet more cold polar air from Antarctica; an associated deep low pressure system will pass to the south of mainland Australia and Tasmania. Ahead of it, a northerly airflow will develop across Victoria and freshen/strengthen as the front closes in, drawing down some of the heat from up north.

For the State tomorrow (Tuesday), morning showers about the coastal fringe and in the Southwest in the wake of the last cold front and cold outbreak but otherwise partly cloudy; early-morning fog and frost (locally severe) over the North and Northeast, then mostly sunny. Cool-to-mild with winds tending northwest/northerly and freshening. Tops of 20C for Melbourne and 24C for Mildura.

On Wednesday, mild-to-warm northerlies strengthening possibly to gale-force, cloud increasing with showers (and possible thunderstorms perhaps?) developing over the Western districts during the evening with a colder, squally west/southwesterly change, spreading eastwards during the night. Highs of 25C for Melbourne and 31C for Mildura.

On Thursday, the cold outbreak sets in across Victoria, with fresh-to-strong, cold west/southwesterly winds, and cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms with local hail (mainly on and south of the Great Dividing Range), with snowfalls down to about 1200m. Maximums of 17C for Melbourne and 22C for Mildura.

Come Friday, apart from clearing showers about coastal areas and the Southwest, along with early frost and fog about the north, conditions will improve dramatically with winds veering northerly and heating up during the weekend in the lead-up to the next system expected early-next week. It's already got my attention, really hoping it brings a decent State-wide storm outbreak!! :D But for now, onto the cold front due in a couple of days' time! ;)

Cheers everyone and have a great week! :)

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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by aussiestormfreak »

More wild, windy, stormy weather for Victoria folks, not surprising given the synoptic charts; the pressure gradient around the low, particularly ahead of the cold front, is quite steep and tight! Batten down the hatches everybody!! :o

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 10:51 am EDT on Tuesday 15 October 2013.
Weather Situation
A cold front approaching from the west will reach western Victoria late Wednesday, crossing the remainder of Victoria overnight and early Thursday. An associated deep low pressure system will pass south of Tasmania Wednesday night and Thursday.

Damaging winds around 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100km/h are forecast for parts of the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts for Wednesday. Exposed elevated areas are most susceptible. Over exposed Alpine areas, winds are expected to average 80 to 90 km/h Wednesday night with gusts of 120 to 130km/h likely.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by I_Love_Storms »

This system looks fairly good, similar to a lot of the stuff we have been getting lately.

Didn't know where to put this, but next Monday looks interesting...the sounding looks pretty exciting, more summer storm like than what we have seen in quite a while!

Image
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Wilko »

Yes the models seem to have upgraded Mondays system now to 20mm
Long way out but at least it's more interesting now
In the meantime the westerly belt continues with another awesome low
Down south
I think the cutoff low next week may be the switch to a change in the Synoptics to
a more summery pattern with moisture humidity etc
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Didjman »

A bit off topic, but we here are all nervous with the expected wind tomorrow. After 2 weeks ago.
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by johnno »

EC not interested for early next week but in saying that ACCESS, UK and GFS are so stay tuned. If you wish to start a new thread ILS for that feel free.

But back to the topic which we is what this thread was first started for looking very windy tomorrow again but I think this will be the last of these very severe winds for a while.
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by aussiestormfreak »

Sure Johnno, I was kinda wondering whether to start a thread for next week's cut-off low/potential storm outbreak and the warm spell/heatwave expected in the lead-up to it. Somewhat reluctantly to be honest as I felt we might be getting a little too far ahead of ourselves since we've got this current cold front, cold outbreak and wind event closing in on us, and the approaching storm's our current main focus. But given the increasing level of interest for next week, I'll get a new thread ready for it! Thanks for the suggestion, cheers mate! ;)

It dipped to about 8C at my end last night and warmed to a beautiful, albeit breezy and admittedly coolish 20.4C this afternoon (partly cloudy or sunny for the most part, wth high cloud increasing to the west and southwest towards sunset) currently about 14C.

Having checked the satellite pictures on Weatherzone, the approaching storm sure looks enormous, occupying much of the Great Australian Bight (but mostly well offshore from the Southern Australian coastline); plenty of cold air surging northwards behind it! :)
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Wilko »

The wind is up already this morning in highett and it is averaging 30 knots in the Surf coast already
Also I noticed the bureau has slightly increased the wind speeds from 50 to 55km p/h
Stay safe all
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Dane »

Getting windy just had a gust of 39 knots (72kmh) on my PWS.
Colder and showery tomorrow.
Looks a bit troughy Sunday and Monday, maybe the chance of some storms.
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Cass »

It is getting rough here, was hoping the weather was going to favor the kids at school camp. Hoping its not to rough for them. They are nearing the end of 8 day outward bound camp in the snowy's. So yes I'm worried.
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Wilko »

Yes I have a feeling its going to get quite rough
I hope this image works of the Sat pic. If not the url is
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/satelli ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This low is simply massive Wz reporting 957hp !
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by AUSSKY »

Our Trentham weather station has had a gust of 57.9kmh so far!
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Skywalker »

Tonight's ride home is going to hurt, head wind the whole way! :cyclone1: :windsail: :cussing: :cussing: :cussing:
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Geoff »

Biggest gusts of the day coming through here now. I don't have a wind gauge, only how much the huge Mountain Ash trees bend and roar, lol. :D
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by mick »

I have lost count of the storm damage here. Trees and fences left right and centre the last couple of weeks, I have two fences held up by rope attached the the BBQ and a 240l wheelie bin full of water until I can work out a plan.

There was a blowdown of tea tree in a gully that I have to photograph, a microburst I think, everything snapped off half way up and fallen in all directions.

Powerlines between a moan and a whine here, about 90k gusts that means.

When the wind begins to shift, it could be interesting.
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Change just going through here now! Winds are mighty strong!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by aussiestormfreak »

The change is moving into my neck of the woods right now, the temperature was pretty steady at around 22C for much of the evening after reaching 26.9C yesterday (overnight low of 14.2C), some violent gusts from the north here for sure with the peak measured at 43.2km/h (those northerlies kinda sounded like the 'sea' at my house today), and although this weather does no good for my sinus and hayfever I love windy, stormy conditions! :D

Tracking the cold front on satellite and radar, the band of rain/showers and thunderstorms should hit Melbourne sometime overnight, and behind that is the anticipated cold outbreak, hopefully the 'bay effect' will be in full-swing for the southeast suburbs and Dandenong Ranges once again! ;)
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by James »

doesnt look like much at the moment, nor thundery as such..will wait and see hope things change!...ben a while since there has been any thunder
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Skywalker »

aussiestormfreak » Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:18 pm wrote:
aussiestormfreak wrote: hopefully the 'bay effect' will be in full-swing for the southeast suburbs and Dandenong Ranges once again! ;)
Yawn. Just for something different. ;)

Moving along, used the zig zag method of riding home last night via back streets rather than trying to tackle that wind head on. Arrived home in one piece and legs are feeling pretty good. No property damage either from the wind so once again have dodged a bullet. :D

Blue skies here at work.
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Re: VIC - Cold Front, Warmth/Showers/Storms/Hail/Snow Oct 15

Post by Wilko »

Looks like a tonne of weather coming in from the WSW
Hopefully it all peaks over the Central Areas this arvo
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