Polar Blast Fri 19 - Fri 26 July

[stevco123]

Ok... Finally... Forecasts of low (and winter-appropriate) temps from about Friday night onwards with some seriously cold air lurking around. Some models have 500hp temps at -35 and 850hp at -4 to -6.

Obviously still early days for this one, but I'm way too excited to not open a new thread.

Here's hoping for snow on the Dandenongs and even lower!!!

The threadis extended out for a week due to the high possibility of some frosts and very low overnight temps after the cold blast is finished.

[Didjman]

Models showing some serious winds with this system - from wednesday to sunday! Batten down the hatches!
Peter

[stratospear]

Depending on the positioning of the Low, this could dump huge quantities of snow (i.e. 1 metre+) on the alps. Central Highlands might get some snow too.

[Geoff]

Yes, AccessG has it moving through quite quickly, but then spins up an ECL which sits in the Tasman into next week.
GFS on the other hand has the low just slowly moving through and lingering to our east for several days.
Either way it's looking like a real wintery blast for most of us, and yes the alps should get dumped on!

[johnno]

GFS, NOGAPS and CMC are generally the same stalling this upper low and sfc low south of us then moving it slowly north or NE. ACCESS also moves it slowly but develops the upper low north of us in southern NSW. EC and UK still move it off abit quicker so be interesting to see how this pans out.

[Gordon]

Long before internet links to all the information we have now, I'd look at isobars heading dead south off the BOM forecast map (as per Saturday 10 am here http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) and be pretty well certain we'd have snow at our place at 620 m asl.

IF the synoptic charts hold this pattern, we should have snow down to 600 m at least during late Friday night/Saturday morning.

[dry]

That is a quite a large and high high south of WA. There is no doubt Saturday will be cold but to what extent will it snow and how low will it go. The isobars for Saturday morning go straight up from the edge of the map - good times

[dagget]

Looking very interesting, snow for us would be nice fri/sat at 700m

[Macedonian]

in my experience up here, we only get good snow when it comes straight up from the south. the muppet on channel2 said 800m for saturday.

It would be nice to see some proper cold weather in this non- winter of 2013. Cant believe how mild it's been, has Melbourne has even had one july day below average yet?

fingers crossed for saturday, i wont be too hopeful until we see what its like later in the week. it always changes this far out.

[Macedonian]

forecast is for 13 now instead of 11C in the city on saturday. typical downgrading. just a normal winter temp.

Hillybilly, what is your july average max? ours (macedon) is something like 7.6C but that is from records taken at a much lower elevation than my place

[Gordon]

We do seem to have lost those old-fashioned 'dead south' isobars for the moment, but rainfall totals look pretty promising. Guess I'll take rain over low level snow for now, though both would be nice!

[Macedonian]

Gordon, do you know what your july average max is? do you have records? It must be pretty low.

[Didjman]

winds alrdy gusting to 60klm/hr at YPAD(Adelaide Airport).

[Geoff]

I have to say I'm a bit surprised at how high the forecast maximums are for this "Polar Blast", seeing as it is mid winter, and we are going to have winds from waaaay down south. Forecast max. for here is 7c this weekend which is pretty average for mid July here, will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Still pretty calm here, I expect to be woken in the early hours by things blowing around and the gum trees roaring!
(Edit: 11pm - first big gusts of wind just starting, only one every 5 minutes or so, then calm again - it's coming!)

[stevco123]

You've got to be kidding me. 17 degrees. .. at 7am... in July?this is ridiculous. That means we'll cop it good later. or we better so it's worth it

[adon]

This front is so slow moving it has been overtaken by some snails up here! Not looking too flash for much rain out of this now. It looks to be breaking up as it moves across so maybe it's moisture source has packed up and gone home. Bugger would have been nice for another 15mm

[Australis(Shell3155)]

16.4C. and yes getting a bit windy.
Interesting taking 5 kids to Buller saturday morning for a play..

[Macedonian]

10C here now, unheard of in my time. watching the sunrise today has been like watching one of those hippy liquid projection lightshows, pink ,apricot, rose,white and grey clouds all at different levels and sizes and types all racing along at different speeds and some in different directions. I spose if you are gonna have apocalyptic temperatures it might as well be pretty to go with it. Not looking forward to today at all. yuk

[Geoff]

Yes, very pretty skies this morning! It was 12c when I went to bed last night and 14.3c when I got up so warmer air is here with this wind which is very gusty but not ferocious - yet! Lots of showers around, but will be very brief as they shoot through. Yes Macedonian, I hate these wild windy days for working outside, just makes it uncomfortable and generally annoying, just waiting for the next tree or branch to come crashing down.

[sparra]

Chucking it down here at the moment 7mm so far......water running everywhere.....can hear it getting heavier.