Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Outside is very depressing,
plants crunchy and laying flat on the ground,
chooks have flicked out any mulch onto the bare ground with dead patches of weeds / lawn.
My apples I have been putting the water into have a burnt patch on top similar to Black Saturday Bakes apples on Tree.
The entire back yard needs raking which would normally be mowing.. Very sad and ugly..

[Geoff]

Let me say it for you Shell, : "We need some rain"
Most models still indicating good falls around the end of Jan/early Feb, but they're so unreliable until the cyclones decide which way they want to go, so we're still clutching at straws really, but I think it's fair to say the worst of the heat and dry is on the way out now ( everything crossed).

[Geoff]

Hard to tel if it's low cloud or smoke engulfing us at the moment, I suspect it's a mixture of both as it smells smokey out there and the webcams show overcast skies around many parts. Still holding out for a bit of rain on Friday but doesn't look like much, just need that cyclone up in the Gulf to wander down south next week.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-rest ... 73270.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

KANGAROO GROUND
Effective: 21/01/13 2:25 PM

Expires: 21/01/13 4:30 PM

Incident Information:

There is a medium, fast moving grassfire in the KANGAROO GROUND.
It is travelling in a North Easterly direction towards Panton Hill, Watson Creek and Christmas Hills area.

This grassfire is out of control.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

NILLUMBIK FARM DR
KANGAROO GROUND
Effective: 21/01/13 2:45 PM

Expires: 22/01/13 2:45 PM

Incident Information:

Country Fire Authority advise that the fire activity in the KANGAROO GROUND area has subsided.
This fire is contained.
This message applies to the town(s) of Kangaroo Ground, Panton Hill, Watson Creek and Christmas Hills.
Smoke may still be visible from nearby communities and roads.

[mad*moo73]

Suprised how much smoke there is today. Can always see the Dandenongs from here on a day like today but covered in a blanket of smoke today!

[Geoff]

Suprised how much smoke there is today. Can always see the Dandenongs from here on a day like today but covered in a blanket of smoke today!

Tell me (cough cough) about it (cough). Actually there's a bit of smoke haze around up here but it's not too bad really, perhaps it looks worse than it is from down below? Loverly sunny day today, if it weren't for the lack of rain it'd be perfecto. Still hoping for a surprise from the front late Thursday-Friday, it could be the beginning of the end of this dry spell.

[droughtbreaker]

Light drizzle again. Probably about the fourth time this month that there has been drizzle/mizzle but each time it's only lasted a few minutes. Radar is actually showing up a light shower stream here but it needs to last all night in order to break the 33 days without measurable rain that we have endured here. SE wind shift overnight might send up more bay moisture into the mix locally. It's getting so desperate that I am actually seriously discussing drizzle prospects.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

9pm there was one drop of moisture noted in the air here.

[Rivergirl]

Not enough Shell. It's getting very frustrating.

[adon]

Quite muggy up here now and a fair bit of convection happening too. Dunno whether it will make it to showers and storms yet but makes for a welcome change to the look of the sky from the last few months.

[adon]

Starting to get some thunder and lightning in the area now. Hope where ever the bolt are coming down there is rain with it!

[Geoff]

Crisp and clear start to the day here, some low temps around , 2.6c at Coldstream, 4.8c at Scoresby. Showers still affecting western side of the bay but they should die out soon as the ridge moves in. Models still can't agree on this week's outcome, EC has very little rain, GFS has up to 10mm for central, AccessG is more upbeat with up to 20mm, mostly on Sunday.

[Geoff]

Cool and grey today, looked like it might rain a few times but never did, a continuation of this really boring weather. On the bright side, the models seem to be indicating the high pressure systems will be starting their seasonal shift northwards next week, which should finally result in fronts from the S/W having more impact in Victoria.

[Geoff]

10mm here today and quite chilly with some pretty heavy showers on/off. Surprising how productive this little burst of cool air has been given that it didn't have all that much of a southerly fetch to it. Bodes well for the future as/when we do get a real Antarctic surge from way down south, can't wait!

[Geoff]

A dusting of snow on Buller, Baw Baw, Hotham and Falls Creek this morning, -2c to -5c up there. A chilly 5.4c here and clear with a cool breeze, but should be a nice few days now until later Sunday. Still nothing "big" on the horizon.

[Macedonian]

cold here too geoff, 3.6C this morning 7.4C and sunny now. a cold autumn day. good for the autumn colour, it has been pretty slow to develop her this year

[droughtbreaker]

Despite the contracting westerlies, it looks as if the uppers are about to destabilise once we can get rid of the latest blockfest and huge high. With the way above normal ocean temps and land temps continuing and the pronounced -ve IOD we have now, models are starting to get excited and prog heavy and widespread rain, at this stage next weekend (still a long way off I know).

EC showing this as just the tip of the iceberg with a slow moving and strong upper trough continually sucking in moisture post next weekend. Long term model runs of GFS also getting excited for a very wet period over the entire SE.

The westerlies are miles away for the entire period, however the upper lows and troughs are pretty typical of June. June is usually dominated by cut off lows and meridional synoptics and is often still quite mild until around the solstice. There is still a chance we can see the westerlies make an appearance later into winter, bringing snow and colder weather. At this stage it is looking like perpetual late Autumn, groundhog day stuff, I 've had enough of it. We're fast losing our four season climate here.

[Geoff]

About 1mm of drizzle early this morning which I wasn't expecting, and certainly didn't want, now the last bonfire to burn is all wet, as is the washing on the line and the bale of hay for our horses, grrrr!
Still the quiet, rather boring conditions continue, that we seem to have had forever this year, with the models still hinting at "weather" at the end of their runs. We continue to live in hope of something to talk about, eventually....

[Australis(Shell3155)]

brrr...................