Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 13th-16th Dec 2012

[I_Love_Storms]

Wind change / trough looks as though it is around mt gambier. Prob be here by morning with a heavy burst of rain and a relatively calm afternoon? Anyone else agree? Timing doesn't seem to be our friend with this event. Agree with others that have mentioned if trough came through at say 6pm tomorrow totals would be much higher.

[Ob1]

A rather nice line has formed in the South-West and is extending Northward. Lightning Tracker is active, if only this was all a few hours later.

[Skywalker]

It has turned into another fizzer considering what was forecast a few days ago. A wind change with some showers & a few possible sparks is hardly anything to get me excited. So damn frustrating.

[nafets]

After this small band of rain, is anything else expected? Only looking to get about 2mm going by the radar..

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah this event is unbelievably frustrating considering such a late and big downgrade by the models...was looking forward to getting a couple of inches today when prob only get 2mm. Looks dry behind these initial storms - I'm not really expecting much more after this band.

[Geoff]

Certainly looks like a short sharp burst coming up for a few of us, but no, not a huge amount in this front. I must say I'm a bit mystified by the forecasts I've read from various sources today, all of which seem to say it will clear up this evening. I keep looking at that vigorous looking cold front coming across the Bight at a rate of knots, and it seems to me it should get to Melbourne by about 7-8pm. Anyone else think the same?

[Rhino]

BOM must be desperate to put out a STW if there putting one out for this line, might be worse than what the radars showing but geez....

Rhino.

[nafets]

Your right rhino haha! Looks like its dissipating on the northern edge..

[Blackie]

Just walking down Elwood beach ...looked up and to our total shock saw a well developed funnel! Slim and long...didn't reach the water lasted for just a few minutes. Awesome!

[Petethemoskeet]

The NE will be the focus for today with the trough stalling.Thunderstorms will become more widespread from about early afternoon with some heavy falls especially on the ranges.At the moment we are getting occassional heavy showers.

[nafets]

New development it seems here to the north west of Melbourne ! Shaped up very quickly! Btw couldn't push the submit button before ;/

[Skywalker]

Will be lucky if we received a single drop here. What a joke!

[stevco123]

Intense rain here for about 3 minutes and bit of thunder. Rain rate at 70mm/h. Overall though a non event. This would have been massive if it happened 8 hours later LIKE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO. Sooooooooooo p****d off.

[nafets]

Short sharp downpour here now. Was just on the roof, saw it developing ! Absolutely pouring now!

[Skywalker]

Okay we are getting more than a single drop, short 5 minute burst of moderate rain. I'd say that will be it.

[flyfisher]

Something I have noticed recently.. Storms or rain approaching Melbourne from the west on the SW wind change. The SW wind change when it hits the bay it accelerates and skips quickly across it. What then happens is the line of storms or rain band then loses it's updraft and the whole line fractures as it crosses Melbourne.

It then reforms to the east of Melbourne in the ranges. Also I notice that the line shears off in the airport region.

This occurred again with the wind change this morning.

[nafets]

Clear skies to my west, could we get more lifting? Is Melbourne still in with a chance of storms?

[Tassiedave]

Sorry Melburnians I think we took most of the rain off you down here in Tassie! 78 mm at Ulverstone in the north west was the top total to 9 am.

[Gordon]

2.4mm in the gauge this morning - 1.8mm with the squall line and the remainder as light rain and drizzle. Very foggy here this morning - viz dwn to 10s metres at time and spitting rain.

Hoping for a lot more today.

Huge split on the models next 2 days - GFS has 70mm and EC has 10mm. For what it is worth EC had 2mm for us yesterday and GFS 20mm, so EC seems to have the "form" for this event

Well picked hillybilly! Turns out EC did indeed forecast the fizzing, as unlikely as that seemed just 24 hrs ago. Big fail to GFS right through.
7.5 mm here for the whole event, and for many model runs we were in the bullseye for 10 times that!

[norwester]

Finally a hit. Big noisy storm earlier this morning with a couple of ml of rain at last in a short heavy downpour - not much, but better than nothing. (although the blockies are muttering darkly in the vines about brown rot and spraying furiously!) That looks like it for us but at least the humidity is lower and a cooler day today.