No worries Crikey. If you want a forecast for the ENSO, IOD and SST, just go opposite to the models and thats going to be a closer outcome.
Im not sure if you have noticed bu the +IOD was brief and seasonal, but its now over and temps have exploded rapidly at the surface through the region, as i suggested would occur three months ago.
Also notice all the models are miles behind and only now are starting to come to grips with the cold PDO not allowing El ninos to develop. In a cold PDO the warm spike is simply a response to the strong La nina's.
And now you can see the heat is almost gone, Nino 3.4 index has plunged last 7 days and SOI had a daily reading yesterday of 21. By the end of October the 90 day will be positive and everyone will be scratching thier heads wondering what has happened.
Have a look at CFS, its miles behind the game, only now starting to wake up and relaise it wont be an El Nino, its just a neutral year.
Watch in the next month as the blue lines pile on South, and the black average line ends up in the negatives.
And heres why, its so obvious. The de-coupling initself was enough to forecast a neutral in my mind, but this confirms it.
There is just no heat in the pipeline. This has been the case for months. And all the models see are the warm spots in the subsurface, and they think that somehow greenhouse gases get into the oceans and warm them up, FFS give me a spell.
Look at the PDO chart, 70% or more dominated by La nina's, and response to El Nino is weak and short lived.
Thats the horse you need to be backing Crikey, the warm/cold has flipped already and in 6 weeks everyone will think they are in the twilight zone, including the BOm and any one else who uses models to forecast.