There is a fight going between the two, the SAM was negative and jumped positive in the last few days.
What is amazing is that spring like patterns are already emerging. In particular, the Top End is intriguing to say the least.
The SOI is now positive for the last week, there is decent disturbance in the trough in the Solomons and the trough has sunk a fair way south.
Never seen a disturbance in the monsoon trough in July so thats new one. And even more strange is it only this part of the equator where the trough has dipped so far south. check out this amazing graphic of GFS, its shows the monsoon along the equator in a straight line from Africa nd South America, then look at our region.
As for Enso, still looking neutral to cool, there is too much cold water moving down from the Bering Sea. This coupled with Easterlies still strong will ensure plenty of weather on the QLD coast the next months or so. Next MJO could spawn another westerly wind burst in a few weeks and given how far south the trough is it may warm a little before retreating to cool again. However, i cant see it.
Feel free to add to the discussion, but it s looking like another wet and active year again with high humidity.