Perth/WA - Day to Day Weather Talk

[Pete]

Had another cold front go through yesterday morning, we had a few showers. We have another cold front due this evening. Was a cool night too, got down to 12.0 degrees, airport got down to 9.7 degrees.

[Pete]

La Niña on the decline; Australian waters remain warmer than usual

Issued on Tuesday 28 February
The decline of the 2011–12 La Niña has gained momentum over the last few weeks. In addition, climate models surveyed by the Bureau show a continued weakening of the event, with a neutral ENSO state expected during autumn. While La Niña is clearly on the wane, waters around Australia remain warmer than normal, maintaining the potential for increased rainfall over the continent.

Over the past fortnight, most oceanic indicators of ENSO have continued their steady shift towards neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures have warmed across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with the latest weekly values dipping into the neutral range. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO are mixed, though the latest 30-day value of the Southern Oscillation Index (+0.7) is also within neutral territory. In contrast, trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain consistent with La Niña.

During La Niña events, the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is typically above normal over the November to April tropical cyclone season, with February and March the peak. The influence of La Niña on Australian rainfall and temperature typically peaks during winter to mid-summer, and then weakens over the following autumn. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April.

[Pete]

Going to be hell warm tomorrow, 35 degrees forecast as well as for Tuesday.

[crikey]

Hi Pete. Been hot around your neck of the woods by the looks .. So not cool for everyone with a la Nina so it seems

WZ have a post on the situation
Going for a heat wave record!!

WA facing increased fire danger, Perth heading for record
Brett Dutschke, Thursday March 8, 2012 - 20:10 EDT

Western Australia's central west and southwest are facing increased fire danger and Perth is heading for a heat record as hot, dry, gusty winds develop.

On Friday, temperatures will soar to the high 30s and low 40s, for the fifth day in a row in the Central West and Central Wheat Belt. This heat will combine with dry easterly winds, which will become fresh and gusty, raising the fire danger to at least a severe level north of about Perth.

Easterly winds have been drawing heat from the desert, which has been building under sunny skies for the past week. These easterlies will increase on Friday due to a trough deepening near the west coast.

The driest, hottest and windiest area will be in the Central West and Central Wheat Belt. Much of this area has not recorded any rainfall in at least a month, making it one of the driest and dustiest parts of Australia. It is also a region which had below average rainfall during summer, allowing the grass and bush to become very dry after a wetter-than-normal spring and winter generated some growth.

Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, the fire danger will still be a concern because wind and heat will only drop off a little. The area is still heading for temperatures in the high 30s and low 40s.

Meanwhile, in the southwest of the state, the Perth area is heading for another heatwave, which will make this a record-breaking season. It is due to be the city's eighth heatwave since the beginning of November last year.

The previous record in a November-to-March period was seven heatwaves, in 1977/78.

For Perth, a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days of at least 35 degrees. The city is forecast to reach 38 degrees or hotter for four days starting Friday.

Fire danger will also be on the rise in the Perth area during the coming days, most likely reaching a rating of very high.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2012
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wa-f ... cord/20964" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Pete]

Hi Crikey. Haven't posted here for a while, school and family been keeping me busy.

Yeah we had a hot start to March, got to 39.8 degrees here at once stage, I think our hottest March day since 1978? I'm not sure. Anyway, we're not getting a lot of rain here right now. I'm worried that the same pattern that we had 3 years ago is returning. Strong highs well south of the state, pushing cold fronts up over Victoria.
I'm so hoping we don't get a dry winter. We desperately need the rain. Only getting light drizzle at the moment. Time will tell, I guess...

[Pete]

Woah, having posted here for a while. School's over for three weeks, so I'll be contributing more to the forum. Had plenty of rain over the past few weeks with regular cold front brushing their way past southwestern WA, definitely making the transition into autumn. Only reached 17.6 degrees today, 10:30pm WST and it's already 8.8 degrees.

[Pete]

8.2 degrees here with an App temp of 6.6 degrees. Boy, it's cold.

[Jake Smethurst]

Keep us updated Pete!!

My parents are visiting from this weekend for a while, and I've told them to expect some quite warmish weather, bit of a shock compared to here in southwest Victoria at the moment!

[Pete]

Yep, you were right about 'warmish' weather. It got to 34.6 degrees yesterday and 33.7 degrees today. Albany's hottest start to April in 48 years.

[Pete]

Brett Dutschke, Wednesday April 11, 2012

In contrast to southeastern Australia's early season cold spell, Western Australia has been having a run of very warm days, record-breaking in places.

Albany is one spot which has been having a record run of heat. The airport has just reached 30 degrees for the third day in a row, the first time this has happened in April in 48 years of records.

After reaching 32 degrees on Monday and 34 on Tuesday it reached 32 again today. The April average maximum temperature is 22 degrees.

The main culprit is a slow-moving weather pattern. A near-stationary high over the Bight has directed northerly winds over the region since Easter Monday. Normally at this time of year a front would have brought some cooling after a couple of days.

On the west coast it hasn't been quite as unusual. It took until Tuesday for it to heat up significantly. A trough delayed the heating by forming just inland, allowing sea breezes on the west coast.

Geraldton has now reached 36 degrees for the second day running, which is eight above the average maximum. This is the first time in 14 years that it's had back-to-back 36-degree days in April.

In the state's capital, Perth has started the working week with two rather warm days, reaching 35.4 and 31.5 degrees. It's been three years since the city has had two consecutive April days this warm.

Perth, Geraldton, Albany and all the places in between can expect a cooler change to take effect as early as tomorrow, Thursday.

A front will drag the trough east of the region, bringing a southerly change. Geraldton will cool to the low 30s, Perth the high 20s and Albany the low-to-mid 20s.

On Friday and on the weekend it will cool a bit more, close to the April average.

This change will bring very little rain. In fact, most of the South West Land Division will miss out and have to wait until at least mid-next week before it rains.

- Weatherzone

[Pete]

5 minutes ago it was 33.5 degrees. Now it's 25.4 degrees. Airport is getting similar readings. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4802.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
S/SW seabreeze has suddenly come through, doing a steady 20 knots.

[Pete]

Got 5mm over the last few days. Was fairly cool this morning as skies cleared and the humidity and winds dropped off. We got down to 10.3 degrees and reached 25.0 degrees just before 1pm. Clear skies out there now, so a chilly one on the way. Yesterday was great for photo ops so I walked about 5kms north of where I live in Albany to Lower King. It's a lovely place, I lived there when I was little and I love going back there. Anyway, I took the camera and waited for the sun to set, and as I was hoping, it was an epic one. Photo is in my photography page.
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 761#p70761" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Anyway, good cold fronts are expected this week, for the south coast anyway. Keeping an eye on Friday night, the models are predicting a nice cold pool to follow a cold front and associated low pressure system. GFS currently progging the 500's at -26C. Not bad for April!


Lifted index looks pretty poor, so does CAPE. However, GFS has underestimated the temperature and dew point at the time of the cold pool crossing so a lot depends on what the surface temperature is when the cold pool crosses the coast. Classic winter sounding predicted though.
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.htm ... &mixop=usr" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Pete]

Warm weather breaks records
Friday April 13, 2012 - 13:05 EST

The weather bureau says Albany has broken records during its recent warm spell.

The city is experiencing unusually mild temperatures for this time of year.

Temperatures of more than 30 degrees were recorded at the airport for three days in a row this week, the first time that has occurred in 48 years of records.

The bureau's Meghan Allen says the hot spell has been caused by a slow moving, high-pressure system in the Bight.

"That's causing north-easterly winds and therefore bringing quite a bit of hot weather from inland Australia over Albany and this is heating Albany up," she said.

"So we've had a record of three days in a row over 30 in April and that's between 1965 to 2012. Before that, we've only ever had two days in April."


- ABC

© ABC 2012

[Pete]

14.6 degrees here. Chilly, foggy morning on the way.

[Pete]

Cool and wet here, currently 15C and 4mm since 9am.

[Pete]

13mm overnight and 3mm yesterday... our yearly total is over 70mm now. We need another 70mm or so to reach our average rainfall for the current time this year.

[Pete]

another 12mm to 9am, we're steadily on our way to reaching our monthly average. Flipping cold tho, 13.4 degrees and it's 12:20pm!

[Pete]

Interesting weather system coming later this week... will keep you all posted on what happens with this system.

[Pete]

G'day guys, it's been a while ay. Been busy with school and stuff. Last few days in southwestern WA have been quite interesting. We had tropical moisture streaming down from the northwest, that combined with a surface trough and low pressure system to bring rain areas and thunderstorms to much of WA. I scored some lightning shots on Thursday morning, they're in my photography page.
The next few days also look interesting. We'll see a strong cold front approach the state on Monday, bringing showers and gusty to much of southwestern WA, with thunderstorms and gale force winds along the south coast with and behind the passage of the front. Heavy falls are possible as the front picks up the remnants of this moisture hanging around at the moment. There's a reasonable cold pool behind this front and also a good southerly drag with drier air moving in later, so we'll see showers contract back to the south coast during Tuesday, where thunderstorms and showers with galeforce W'ly winds are likely, shifting SW'ly later and S'ly during Wednesday. The gradual easing in the winds and direr air pushing through should mean skies will eventually clear mid to late next week with cold nights likely inland. Not so cold nights for the south coast until the high moves east into the bight
Looks like we're finally seeing a winter pattern. The highs are moving further north, allowing regular cold fronts to affect WA. Hopefully this trend stays, although the odd tropical event is always welcome.

Pete

[Pete]

13mm overnight. Very welcome, more on the way.